Crypto100w

Update Date: 2026-01-08
Disclaimer: This article is for research/educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Cryptocurrency assets are highly volatile; please act according to your own risk tolerance.
0) What happened: How significant are the "reversals" over the past two days?
0.1 Key Data (US Spot BTC ETF)
Below are the net outflows for the last two trading days (unit: US$m; data source: Farside Investors):
2026-01-06: Total net outflow -243.2, IBIT +228.7 (contrarian net inflow)
FBTC -312.2 (main drag)
GBTC -83.1
Others: ARKB -29.5, HODL -14.4, BTC (Grayscale Mini) -32.7, etc.
2026-01-07: Total net outflow -486.1, IBIT -130.0 (shifted from "contrarian inflow" to "also starting to flow out")
FBTC -247.6
BITB -39.0, ARKB -42.3, HODL -11.6, GBTC -15.6, etc.
Observation point: 01-06 still resembles a "structural rotation (A outflow, B inflow)", while 01-07 looks more like a "broad-spectrum retreat (multiple products flowing out simultaneously)."

Old-school Meme Coins (DOGE / PEPE / SHIB) and Altcoins "Collective Rebound": What Has Been Happening These Days?
Applicable Time Window: 2025-12-31 ～ 2026-01-04 (Typical market structure during the days after New Year)
Disclaimer: The following content is for research/educational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice or profit guarantee; cryptocurrency assets are highly volatile, please trade with the risk and position size you can afford.
1. Phenomenon Review: Why are "Old Meme" Coins the first to move?
Common tactics during these New Year days are:
BTC stabilizes/rebounds → Risk appetite warms → High Beta sectors lead the rally
Meme coins are inherently high Beta, with large price elasticity. As long as capital flows back even slightly, they tend to experience a "magnified rebound."
The "position squeeze" caused by previous declines/downsides has been released.
Once a rebound occurs, short-covering can amplify the gains (especially in coins with high contract ratios).
Holiday liquidity tends to be thin.
Thin liquidity means:
- During declines, it’s easier to be pushed out in a waterfall drop
- During rebounds, it’s easier for a few K-lines to break through key resistance levels
This results in a movement that appears to be "suddenly erratic."

BTC Yearly Trend Turns Bearish + $19B Liquidation: How the “Macro Thunder” of 2025 Crashed the Crypto Market (In-Depth Explanation)
October Hits Record High → Tariff/Export Control News → Chain Liquidations (> $19 billion) → Yearly Trend Turns Bearish (First time since 2022).
Disclaimer: This article is for informational and risk education purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
5-Sentence Summary
In 2025, Bitcoin’s yearly trend turned bearish, widely interpreted as “BTC behaving more like a macro risk asset” rather than an independent market.
BTC hit a record high of over $126,000 in October but subsequently retraced significantly.
Around October 10–11, the market triggered a “liquidation waterfall” under low liquidity, with total liquidations exceeding $19 billion, setting a new record.
One direct trigger was macro policy shocks such as tariffs and export controls, causing market sentiment to switch from “optimistic” to “panicked” within hours.
This is not a “project explosion,” but a structural chain reaction caused by leverage + liquidity + exchange risk control rules under pressure.

2025 Major Events in the Crypto World Year in Review
Written on 2026-01-01: 2025 was the year of “Comprehensive Financialization of Crypto Assets”—regulation began to be implemented into law, ETFs moved towards mass adoption, and on-chain finance (RWA/DeFi) increasingly resembled the “new trading layer” of traditional markets. At the same time, security incidents and macro shocks pushed “risk management” to the forefront.
A summary table (9 items)
Date (2025) Event Key Point in One Sentence
February 21 Bybit suffers approximately $1.5 billion theft State-level hackers turn “exchange security” into a geopolitical issue
May 7 Ethereum Pectra upgrade goes live Ethereum continues to bet on the “more user-friendly + more scalable” approach
June 17 – July 18 U.S. “GENIUS Act” stablecoin legislation passed and signed Stablecoins gain a systemic federal framework in the U.S. for the first time
September 18 (Key milestone) SEC introduces new spot crypto ETF listing rules “One-by-one approval” becomes “batch listing according to rules”
October 6 Bitcoin hits new high (historic high > $125,000 range) Institutional and policy expectations drive the “top-out moment”
October 10–11 Largest liquidation cascade in history (>190

End of Year: Why Is BTC More Prone to "Whipsaws"? A Chart Explains the Three Forces (And How You Should Respond)
Every year-end, you’ll more frequently see these scenes:
No big news, but BTC can suddenly spike or drop by 1%–3%
Repeated "false breakouts/false breakdowns" near key round numbers
More "instant surges and drops" during the night or weekends
A quick spike hits stop-losses, then the price returns as if nothing happened
This isn’t mysticism; it’s more about the market structure becoming more “fragile” at year-end. You can think of BTC at year-end as: narrower roads, fewer cars, but sharper brakes.
Below, using “one chart + three forces” to explain: why is year-end more prone to whipsaws, and how can ordinary investors reduce risk without predicting the market direction.
One chart: The three forces behind year-end volatility (core logic)
Year-end BTC more whipsaw
▲
│
┌────────────┼────────────┐
│ │ │
Liquidity thins Derivatives more sensitive Rebalancing/Emotion amplification
(Road narrows)

Binance BTC/USD1 Flash Crash to $24,000 and Instant Recovery: What Exactly Happened?
Last night/today, you might have seen a screenshot of “BTC dropping to 24,000”: a needle directly stabbing the floor, then bouncing back to over 80,000 in the next second.
Let's put the conclusion upfront: this is not a total market crash of Bitcoin, but rather an extreme “flash wick” occurrence on a relatively obscure trading pair on Binance — BTC/USD1. It resembles a liquidity incident — but for some traders, it could still be a “real loss” incident.
In this episode, we’ll explain thoroughly: why did such an outrageous price of 24,000 appear? Why did it only happen to BTC/USD1? Who might be hurt? How can ordinary people protect themselves?

JPMorgan Institutional Trading of Encryption Assets: This is not a "transformation", but a signal that Wall Street is entering the second half.
Key signal: JPMorgan has been reported to be evaluating the provision of encryption asset trading services for institutional clients (possibly covering spot and derivatives), still in the early research phase, ultimately depending on client demand and compliance implementation.
Many people's first reaction to this news is: "Hasn't Dimon always criticized Bitcoin? Why is he suddenly getting involved?"
But if you put it into the framework of "How Wall Street Makes Money," you'll find that this is more like a business inevitability rather than an attitude reversal.
I will explain this matter thoroughly using the five segments: "What happened → Why now → What can be done → What it means for the market → What signals you should pay attention to."