The probes before the holiday failed to effectively move downward, and the upward probes after the holiday also failed to stabilize. From this perspective, the market is still in a state of oscillation. The most important thing at this stage is not to blindly chase gains or losses, but to act only near strong resistance and support levels. Stay disciplined and avoid making reckless moves elsewhere. By the end of the year, no one should expect a sudden surge or plunge. Instead of frequent trading, it’s better to be cautious, focus on defense, and temporarily refrain from adding positions. Specifically regarding BTC’s performance, Bitcoin has been stuck at the 9050 resistance level for at least 10 days, unable to break through effectively. Shorting near this level is a good attempt; even if you make a mistake, you should try. Looking downward, the 8650 level is an important support line. As long as it doesn’t break within three days, it’s also reasonable to position long near this area. For intermediate price levels, I’m currently not considering them much; maybe I’m a bit hesitant… Ethereum’s movement is somewhat unpredictable. The key level of 2900 has been broken and recovered multiple times. Is this genuine strength or just bluffing? It’s hard to tell for now. The area around 305-306 above has been attempted to break through since Monday, but even today, Friday, it hasn’t succeeded. Since a breakout seems unlikely, look for suitable positions to short; there’s no other way. Final words: Short when it’s time to short, long when it’s time to go long. Don’t get too ambitious. At this year-end stage, the focus is on preserving strength, saving bullets for next year, because next year will be the real time to go all out!

This morning, after the release of the PPI data, both the crypto market and traditional stock markets collectively rose. Bitcoin broke through $45,000, gaining 3,000 points; Ethereum surpassed $2,400; Nasdaq increased by 1.2%, and the Dow Jones rose by 0.8%. The market trends seem aligned, but the underlying driving logic actually differs significantly. On the surface, this rally follows the old pattern—declining inflation data → rising expectations of rate cuts → liquidity expansion → capital inflows. However, things are not that simple. First, a basic concept. PPI, or Producer Price Index, reflects the trend of factory gate prices for industrial products. An unexpected decline in PPI indicates a significant easing of inflationary pressures on the industrial side, which in turn drives CPI (Consumer Price Index) to continue cooling down. Previously, every time CPI declined, the market would rise because expectations of rate cuts were reinforced. This time, it’s different. A sharp drop in PPI directly benefits enterprises. The costs of raw materials and production inputs are highly correlated with PPI. A decline in PPI means a substantial reduction in production costs for companies, directly improving profit expectations. For the stock market, this is not just a liquidity story but also a fundamental story. The crypto market, on the other hand, benefits more from expectations of rate cuts and the revaluation of risk assets. Both markets are rising, but each for different reasons. Confusing this distinction can easily lead to pitfalls in subsequent volatility.

These past few days, the market appears calm on the surface, but undercurrents are surging. The $28 billion options expire tonight, marking the most critical time point of the year. BTC's biggest pain point is at 95,000, while Ethereum's is at 3,100. What lies behind these numbers? The real story begins after the expiration is complete. Here's the interesting part—after more than 50% of the positions are settled, what do the big players do? They didn't withdraw; instead, they committed over 30% of their ammunition to out-of-the-money call options in March. What does this mean? It indicates that the market will rise. Looking at past patterns, it becomes clear. The fourth quarter is usually challenging, retail investors' confidence collapses, and their morale diminishes. At this time, the big whales are quietly positioning themselves. They are drawing a future map in the options market at the lowest cost, just waiting for a rebound to wipe out all the fearful chips. This is the mindset of top traders. They don't start positioning during prosperity; quite the opposite, they have already laid out the board when you're at your most desperate. Short-term volatility and fluctuations cannot change the long-term direction. If you cut your losses now, you're actually actively giving away your chips. The cruelest truth in the crypto world is: at the same price, people with different perceptions will have completely different outcomes. The whales are deploying their funds, while most people are still driven by emotions. The key is to learn how to read the true signals of the market from options data—that's the way to anticipate the footsteps of a bull market.