Established meme coins (DOGE / PEPE / SHIB) and altcoins are experiencing a "collective rebound": What exactly has happened in the past few days?

Old-school Meme Coins (DOGE / PEPE / SHIB) and Altcoins “Collective Rebound”: What Has Really Happened These Days?

Applicable Time Window: 2025-12-31 to 2026-01-04 (Typical market structure in the days after New Year) Disclaimer: The following content is for research/educational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice or profit guarantee; cryptocurrencies are highly volatile, please trade with the risk and position size you can afford.

1. Phenomenon Review: Why Are “Old Meme” Coins the First to Move?

Common tactics during these New Year days include:

BTC stabilizes/rebounds → Risk appetite warms → High Beta sectors lead the rally Meme coins are inherently high Beta, with large price elasticity. As long as capital flows back even slightly, they can easily produce an “amplified rebound.” Previously accumulated “position squeeze” from declines/shadow declines is released Once a rebound occurs, short covering can amplify gains (especially in coins with high contract ratios). Holiday liquidity is relatively thin Thin liquidity means: during declines, it’s easier to be knocked out in a waterfall; during rebounds, it’s easier for a few K-lines to break through key resistance levels Resulting in a movement that looks like a “sudden outburst.”

2. Structural Reasons: This rebound is more like “Year-End Capital Behavior” rather than a fundamental change

Such year-end rebounds are usually driven by three more “structured” factors:

2.1 Year-end deleveraging/selling pressure concentrated in December → Temporary relief of pressure in early January

At the end of December, common phenomena include: risk assets generally “shrinking volatility” or “deleveraging in bulk” Passive selling/position reduction caused by settlement and portfolio adjustments

Entering January, this “passive selling pressure” tends to phase out, making the market more likely to rebound with a “New Year’s first emotional recovery.”

You can think of it as: sellers have sold what they want to sell, leaving less selling pressure, so prices naturally become more elastic. (Traditional markets discuss the “January Effect”; while not always fully applicable to crypto, the year-end capital behavior has indeed recurred in many years.)

2.2 Marginal improvement in liquidity/funding environment: Market begins to bet on “a more relaxed liquidity environment”

On a macro level, market expectations of “marginal liquidity improvement” are often first reflected in high-volatility assets. When short-term funding pressures ease and liquidity signals improve, BTC usually stabilizes first, then spreads to ETH/altcoins, and finally to meme and smaller-cap coins.

2.3 Meme coin “narrative + structure” more prone to trigger short-term explosive moves

Meme coin rallies are usually not due to “technological breakthroughs,” but rather the combination of three factors:

Narrative: social media buzz, KOL diffusion, New Year sentiment, attention reflow Structure: changes in contract positions/funding rates/open interest (OI) Charts: key resistance breakthroughs triggering chasing, stop-losses, or algorithmic orders

When “narrative ignition” + “contract squeeze” + “technical breakout” occur simultaneously, it creates the impression of a “sudden collective rebound.”

3. The 6 “Underlying Indicators” You Should Watch During This Market

Why can the rebound sustain or why does it fade.

3.1 Is BTC holding steady in a key zone (the “main switch” of the market)

BTC is the anchor of overall market risk appetite. As long as BTC weakens again, meme and small-cap coins tend to give back gains faster.

3.2 Net inflow of stablecoins (is new money really coming in)

Core to a sustainable rebound: new money If you only see prices rising but stablecoin supply/on-chain net inflow does not match, it’s likely a “squeeze rebound.”

3.3 Funding rates (Funding) and Open Interest (OI)

Rising + Funding rates spike + OI surges simultaneously: prone to “long crowding → pullback liquidation” Rising + moderate funding + healthy OI structure: more like “trend correction / new position building”

3.4 Liquidation map

Common during year-end: first clearing one side, then the other in reverse. You can use “liquidation band” to explain why a “sudden spike” occurs.

3.5 BTC Dominance and Sector Rotation

BTC dominance rising: defensive stance, weaker continuation for altcoins BTC dominance falling + ETH strength: more like “risk spreading,” making altcoins more promising

3.6 Social media buzz/search index (especially important for meme coins)

Meme attention equals liquidity. When buzz rises, trading volume increases, and prices are more likely to experience “nonlinear surges.”

4. Trading Plan: Use “Scenario Simulation” Instead of “Guessing Tops and Bottoms”

4.1 First set three iron rules (applicable to all coins)

Maximum single-loss limit: recommend 0.5%–1% of account net worth (lower for beginners) No chasing highs: the correct way to chase is “wait for a pullback confirmation before entering,” not “emotionally buy during a surge” Batch entry and stop-loss must go hand in hand: staggered entries + staggered take profits + clear invalidation points

4.2 Scenario A: Rebound continues (trend correction → higher)

Trigger conditions (the more the better):

BTC stabilizes above key levels (at least no new lows) Market sentiment shifts from “fear” to “neutral” Funding is not extreme, OI growth is moderate Volume expands, and pullbacks do not break support

Execution strategy:

Only buy on “pullback” (pullback entry) Target: ride a trend, not catch the absolute bottom

Position allocation:

Divide planned position into 3 parts: 30% / 30% / 40% First part: buy on pullback near support with signs of stabilization Second part: confirm structural strength (e.g., break previous high) Third part: add during the trend (but move stop-loss upward accordingly)

4.3 Scenario B: Rebound fails (short squeeze → profit-taking at high levels)

Common signals:

Rising + Funding/OI overheated during rally Price surges but volume does not support (or long upper shadows appear) BTC pulls back, while alt/meme coins are still “last sprinting”

Execution strategy:

Avoid opening “chasing new positions,” switch to “reduce/close at high levels” Use “trailing stop” to protect profits Allow missing the last leg but avoid profit reversal

4.4 Scenario C: Range-bound tug-of-war (most prone to stop-loss hits)

Features:

BTC consolidates, altcoins rotate quickly Same coin can “go up one candle, then down another”

Execution strategy:

Reduce position size and leverage (preferably 0 leverage), trade within range: buy at support, sell at resistance, with wider stops but smaller positions

5. Specific Strategies for DOGE / SHIB / PEPE

Note: Different exchanges/on-chain assets may have tokens with the same name (especially PEPE, SHIB), always verify contract addresses/trading pairs before placing orders.

5.1 DOGE (Oldest meme leader: high elasticity, high attention)

Suitable strategies: swing trading during trend correction; range trading during consolidation. Key points:

DOGE often acts as a “market sentiment indicator” for meme sector; if it doesn’t strengthen, other meme coins’ sustainability diminishes.

Template plan:

Entry: pullback to key support + signs of stabilization (volume decline or rebound) Stop-loss: break below support and fail to recover (based on daily/4H charts) Take profit: near previous highs/key resistance levels, reduce positions gradually (at least 1/3)

5.2 SHIB (also volatile, but more influenced by “sector sentiment”)

Suitable strategies: more conservative positions, quicker profit-taking. Key points:

SHIB often shows “quick pullback after surge,” so it’s better to: lock in profits early Don’t expect to double in one go before selling

Template plan:

Entry: wait for pullback + structural confirmation, avoid chasing during surges Take profit: staggered exits (e.g., 25% / 25% / 50%) Risk: if BTC weakens, SHIB tends to retrace faster

5.3 PEPE (“emotion + contract squeeze” stronger attributes)

Suitable strategies: event-driven/emotion-driven trading under strict risk control. Key points:

PEPE can easily produce “short-term explosive rise → sharp retracement → another rally” structures You can emphasize in your videos: PEPE’s core is rhythm, not faith

Template plan:

Entry: confirm pullback + avoid extreme funding/OI; be clear about stops Stop-loss: after a large bullish candle with volume, at least lock in some profits

6. Summary

The recent rebounds of DOGE, PEPE, SHIB, and other altcoins are essentially more about “post-year-end emotional recovery + rebound after deleveraging.” Meme coins move first because they are high Beta, with more obvious contract squeeze and faster attention reflow. Whether the market can continue depends not on “which coin is stronger,” but on: BTC’s stability, stablecoin inflows, and whether funding rates and OI are overheated. In trading, avoid guessing tops and bottoms; use scenario analysis: if the trend continues, pull back for a swing; if the rebound fails, take profits and retreat; if range-bound, reduce positions and trade within the range.

7. Risk Checklist

High volatility + high leverage = sharply increased risk of liquidation Meme coin rises heavily depend on attention and liquidity, which can “come fast and go faster” Risks of fake or duplicate tokens (especially PEPE / SHIBI); always verify contract addresses Any “story of rapid rise” may be short-term emotion rather than long-term value