Gate News reports that on March 13, Polymarket prediction market data showed that a new account invested $90,000 betting “Yes” on whether the Iranian regime will fall before ___, with two deadlines on April 30 and June 30. Currently, the market price for a regime fall before June 30 is 23.5¢. The account address is 0xa2536f292681daff7a048ab51fab6bdf81ecc48f, with a total open position of $90,000.
There are factional disagreements within Iran among hardliners, pragmatists (such as supporters of President Pahlavikian’s reformists), and various security and military agencies. On March 7, Pahlavikian apologized to Gulf neighbors in a televised speech and promised to cease attacks (unless the attacks originate from these countries), but hours later, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps issued a statement warning that if hostile actions continue, they will respond with “overwhelming force” against U.S. and Israeli bases in the region. Subsequently, Pahlavikian’s office issued a clarification, omitting the initial apology.
Yesterday (March 12), the new Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, did not appear publicly or deliver a live video address in his first major statement, but instead the state television broadcast the statement in written form.
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