Gate News reports that on March 12, prediction market Polymarket data showed that in the past twelve hours, an address with a 70% win rate in the Middle East sector bet $4,900 on “Trump will announce the cessation of military actions against Iran before May,” with an opening average price of 77.7¢, and a current price of 77¢.
The settlement condition for this market is that Trump, the U.S. government, or the military must publicly and officially announce the end of military operations against Iran, without requiring acknowledgment from Iran, Israel, or other parties.
President Trump reiterated that the war will “end soon,” with the specific end time to be decided by him. Meanwhile, Iran claimed it is ready for a “long-term attrition war, which will destroy the entire U.S. economy,” and warned of beginning attacks on banks related to the U.S. in the Middle East. Iran launched new attacks on Middle Eastern supply routes and infrastructure, overshadowing the positive news of the U.S. and International Energy Agency releasing oil reserves, causing oil prices to surge.
Based on this trader’s past trading profile, they are not betting on whether the event will actually happen but may take profits or cut losses at certain points after opening a position. Account address: 0x88c4919de76e526d55a32c1f8afb439dd1f1129a.
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