Monetary Policy

TD Cowen指出，随着某 crypto company gaining access to the Federal Reserve's core payment system, more crypto companies are expected to obtain this permission this year. The company was designated as a "limited-use" account, and despite facing opposition and lawsuits from the banking industry, the Federal Reserve's approval process will continue to move forward.

Gate News Report, March 6 — Today, CME "Federal Reserve Watch" data shows: the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points by March is 2.7%, and the probability of holding rates steady is 97.3%. The probability of the Federal Reserve cumulatively cutting interest rates by 25 basis points by April is 12.5%, with an 87.3% chance of keeping rates unchanged, and a 0.3% chance of a total cut of 50 basis points. By June, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point cut is 30.7%.

The tense situation in the Middle East has triggered a strengthening of the US dollar, putting pressure on Bitcoin and high-risk assets. Analysis indicates that the appreciation of the dollar and high inflation may limit capital inflows into the crypto market. Although Bitcoin experienced a brief rebound, it still faces institutional sell-offs and market weakness. Investors should monitor the dollar trend and market dynamics to assess potential risks.

The Federal Reserve recently issued guidance, treating tokenized securities the same as traditional securities, removing regulatory barriers, and supporting financial institutions in exploring blockchain asset management. This policy provides a clear direction for tokenized finance and may lead to a large transfer of assets to blockchain, achieving efficient settlement and increased liquidity.

The Bank of Canada announced the test results of the "Samara Project," successfully issuing and managing 100 million CAD worth of tokenized government bonds through blockchain technology. The project applied distributed ledger technology in bond issuance, trading, and settlement, enhancing transparency and efficiency. Regulatory authorities remain cautious, believing that infrastructure and regulatory issues still need to be addressed. This pilot demonstrates the potential of blockchain in the financial sector.

On March 6th, Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse supported Trump's tough stance on the "Clarity Act," calling on the U.S. Congress to push for the bill to clarify the regulatory framework for digital assets. Currently, due to disputes over stablecoin yield models, the bill is stalled in the Senate, affecting market sentiment.

CME lowers precious metals futures margin requirements, signaling increased market liquidity. The Middle East conflict has driven up energy prices, leading to a reassessment of inflation risks. The interest rate market pricing has shifted, with easing expectations cooling down, and funds focusing on U.S. non-farm payroll data, affecting economic and liquidity trends. The crypto market is also impacted, with short-term volatility rising.

The Federal Reserve, FDIC, and OCC jointly issued guidelines, clearly stating that tokenized securities should follow the same capital requirements as traditional securities, emphasizing neutrality regarding technological forms to promote the development of blockchain assets, reduce regulatory concerns, and enhance the business flexibility of financial institutions.

From 01:30 to 01:45 (UTC) on March 6, 2026, ETH achieved a return of +0.99% within 15 minutes, with a price range of 2065.42 to 2088.57 USDT, and an amplitude of 1.12%. The volatility during this window was significantly higher than the daily average, increasing short-term market attention. Liquidity was relatively low, and some large transactions drove the trading volume upward. The main driver of this abnormal movement was the concentrated inflow of whale funds into decentralized exchanges and large transfers. On-chain monitoring detected multiple large ETH fund inflows into DeFi protocols and trading platforms, effectively pushing

The Federal Reserve has issued guidelines stipulating that banks should treat tokenized securities equally with traditional securities when calculating regulatory capital, emphasizing the principle of technological neutrality. No special legislation is required; banks can operate under the existing framework. This move provides a stable policy foundation for tokenization businesses, promotes market growth, and reduces compliance costs.

The weekly net inflow into stablecoins has seen a strong rebound over the past week, as on-chain activity increased despite ongoing debates between U.S. lawmakers and banking groups about whether third parties should be allowed to pay interest on stablecoins. This is the information

Influenced by Middle East conflicts and inflation concerns, U.S. Treasury yields continue to rise. Initial jobless claims remain at 213,000, and the January import price index growth was below expectations. The market expects non-farm employment to decline, while the futures market anticipates the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates only once by 2026. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose to 4.134%.

U.S. stablecoin giant Circle recently surged nearly 8% in stock price, hitting a four-month high, due to soaring oil prices and a cooling of interest rate cut expectations. Mizuho Securities raised its target price to $100, while maintaining a "Neutral" rating, but became more optimistic about profit prospects. Analysts believe that if the Federal Reserve continues to keep interest rates high, Circle's revenue will benefit accordingly, but market competition and regulatory pressures should still be watched carefully.

Trump recently expressed support for digital assets, promoting regulatory discussions. Market sentiment has improved, and Bitcoin's price has risen by about 7%, with multiple crypto concept stocks also gaining. Analysts believe that changes in the regulatory environment and ETF capital inflows are driving the rise, but future legislative stagnation or price corrections could impact the performance of crypto stocks.

The conflict between US cryptocurrency regulation and traditional banking is intensifying. Eric Trump criticized large banks for blocking stablecoin yields, claiming it is an effort to maintain a "low interest rate monopoly." At the same time, Trump also accused lobbying groups of hindering the progress of crypto legislation. The congressional bill on stablecoins is moving slowly and faces disputes from all sides. If no consensus is reached, it could lead to ongoing regulatory uncertainty for the crypto industry.

Eric Trump accuses large banks of using lobbying groups to block stablecoins and crypto platforms from offering high annual yields, calling it systemic exploitation. Stablecoins like Coinbase USDC and MakerDAO DAI offer interest rates higher than traditional banks. The controversial CLARITY Act may restrict interest payments on stablecoins, with crypto supporters arguing that this move protects the interests of traditional banks.

Cryptocurrency exchange Kraken becomes the first company to hold a main account with the U.S. Federal Reserve, allowing direct settlement of USD transactions. However, this has sparked strong opposition from the banking industry, which is concerned about potential threats to financial stability. Stablecoins could lead to a $6.6 trillion outflow of deposits, affecting lending costs. Trump supports the crypto agenda, accusing banks of obstructing legislation, indicating his political stance and vested interests.

President Trump has nominated former Federal Reserve Board member Kevin Warsh to succeed Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve Chair, with his term starting on May 15. Warsh supports Bitcoin, viewing it as a market discipline regulator, but the nomination may face resistance from Democrats in the Senate.

Trump has nominated Kevin Wash to serve as Federal Reserve Chair for a four-year term, and he has also served as a board member for fourteen years. As a Bitcoin supporter, Wash's stance has attracted attention in the crypto market, but his confirmation process faces resistance from the Democratic Party, with the core issue being the preservation of the Federal Reserve's independence. Additionally, U.S. crypto asset regulation still has a vacuum, and a new CFTC commissioner is urgently needed.

Bitcoin broke through $72,000 on March 5, driven by three major macro factors: diplomatic contact between Iran and the US CIA, Federal Reserve officials supporting interest rate cuts, and US escorting oil tankers promising to reduce energy supply risks. Strong economic data further supported market risk sentiment.