January 15 News, well-known crypto market investor Arthur Hayes stated that although Bitcoin’s market performance in 2025 significantly lags behind gold and the technology sector, over a longer cycle, Bitcoin still has a high probability of reaching a new all-time high in 2026. He emphasized that the core variable influencing Bitcoin’s future trend is not short-term price fluctuations, but the changing trend of dollar liquidity.
Arthur Hayes pointed out that for Bitcoin to once again outperform gold and the Nasdaq Index, the prerequisite is that dollar liquidity re-enters an expansion cycle. If the supply of dollars cannot continue to increase, risk assets in the market will struggle to gain enough upward momentum, and Bitcoin will naturally be constrained. In his view, dollar liquidity is the key fundamental factor determining Bitcoin’s long-term value.
In his latest analysis, Arthur Hayes mentioned that factors potentially driving a significant rebound in liquidity include the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet expansion, which will release more funds into the financial system. Meanwhile, as the overall financial environment gradually loosens, mortgage rates may fall, and commercial banks’ lending behaviors will also change accordingly, with more funds expected to flow into strategic industries supported by the U.S. government.
Additionally, military-related expenditures are also seen as a potential source of liquidity. Arthur Hayes believes that maintaining influence globally requires long-term fiscal and financial support, and related financing will ultimately be completed through the banking system, objectively promoting the expansion of the money supply. This background is bullish for scarce assets like Bitcoin in the medium to long term.
Looking back at history, a loose monetary environment often increases investors’ demand for inflation-hedging assets, benefiting Bitcoin. Arthur Hayes also candidly admitted that the phased contraction of dollar liquidity in 2025 is closely correlated with a decline in Bitcoin prices. During the same period, Bitcoin’s annual decline exceeded 14%, while gold prices rose by over 44%.
In comparison, technology stocks performed strongly, becoming the highest-return sector within the S&P 500 Index. Arthur Hayes attributes this divergence to policy influences, believing that AI-related sectors in the U.S. and China already possess clear strategic attributes. Even if some traditional indicators are weak, funds continue to flow into this direction.
From a medium to long-term perspective, Arthur Hayes remains optimistic about Bitcoin’s prospects, expecting a new trend cycle in 2026 amid the re-expansion of dollar liquidity.
Disclaimer: The information on this page may come from third parties and does not represent the views or opinions of Gate. The content displayed on this page is for reference only and does not constitute any financial, investment, or legal advice. Gate does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information and shall not be liable for any losses arising from the use of this information. Virtual asset investments carry high risks and are subject to significant price volatility. You may lose all of your invested principal. Please fully understand the relevant risks and make prudent decisions based on your own financial situation and risk tolerance. For details, please refer to
Disclaimer.
Related Articles
“Strategy” opposing order book: flattening and increasing BTC short positions by over $5.2 million; total open positions rise to $75.2 million
On April 9, Hyperinsight detected that address 0x94d3 increased its holdings by 81.06 BTC short positions. Its total position size is $75.2048 million, with an unrealized loss of approximately $1.8229 million, and it is currently the largest BTC short position on Hyperliquid. The address previously established a large BTC short position in reverse back in December of last year.
GateNews20m ago
In the past 24 hours, liquidations across the entire network totaled $232 million, with long liquidations accounting for over 60%.
Gate News, April 9, according to CoinAnk data, the total liquidation amount across the entire network over the past 24 hours reached $232 million. Of that, long liquidations totaled about $144 million, accounting for more than 60%; short liquidations totaled about $88.17 million. From the distribution by asset, the liquidation amount for Bitcoin was about $68.95 million, and the liquidation amount for Ethereum was about $35.32 million.
GateNews48m ago
Adam Back Denies Being Bitcoin Creator Satoshi Nakamoto After New York Times Investigation
British Bitcoin developer and Blockstream CEO Adam Back publicly denied on April 8, 2026 that he is Satoshi Nakamoto, the pseudonymous creator of Bitcoin, after a New York Times investigation by journalist John Carreyrou identified him as the strongest candidate to be the inventor of the digital currency.
CryptopulseElite1h ago
Bitcoin is hovering around the $700,000 level; if oil prices fall below $100 or push toward $80,000
Bitcoin has recently been trading in a high-level range. The price rebounded from $67,000 to $70,900, driven by a U.S.-Iran ceasefire agreement. Market analysis suggests that weakness in oil prices—or easing inflation pressure—may support Bitcoin’s upside. If it breaks above $72,500, it could trigger short liquidations and push the price up to $80,000. However, instability in the Middle East and a rebound in oil prices could act as a drag. Volatility in the energy market will be a key factor influencing Bitcoin’s direction.
GateNews1h ago
Chainalysis: By 2035, stablecoin transaction volume may reach 1.5 quadrillion USD, exceeding the scale of global cross-border payments
Blockchain analytics firm Chainalysis predicts that by 2035, stablecoin transaction volume will reach $71.9 trillion. If there are two major macro catalysts, it could double to $150 trillion, surpassing the current global cross-border payments market size. Analysts note that institutional participation will significantly increase activity.
GateNews1h ago
