Data analytics company CryptoQuant指出， Bitcoin may have already entered a bear market as early as early November 2025; due to weakening demand and persistent on-chain indicators, the organization predicts that at some point in 2026, the bottom price could be between $56,000 and $60,000.
CryptoQuant Research Director Julio Moreno warns that Bitcoin may have entered a bear market for two months. Moreno outlined a bearish outlook in a recent analysis, citing the company’s “Bull Score Index”—which combines technical and on-chain data—that turned fully negative in November and failed to recover. Key trigger factors include: Bitcoin breaking below the 1-year moving average, declining network activity, reduced trading volume, and a major liquidation event in October that exhausted buying momentum.
Demand has been exhausted, non-halving supply-side factors
The predicted floor price aligns with Bitcoin’s “Realized Price”—the average cost basis of current holders—which is currently around $56,000. Historically, this often marks the bear market bottom. If the price falls into this range, it would represent a retracement of about 55% from the October high of over $126,000. Moreno points out that this would be the mildest correction in Bitcoin history, milder than the 70% to 80% declines seen in previous cycles.
Moreno attributes this shift to demand exhaustion rather than supply-side factors like halving. He notes three major demand waves in 2025: the listing of US spot ETFs, the presidential election, and the rise of Bitcoin savings strategy companies. Since early October, demand growth has fallen below trend levels, institutional positions are being closed, and profit indicators have stagnated.
Bitcoin reached a peak of $126,080 in October 2025, after being around $93,000 at the beginning of the year, but has since fallen below the early-year level, indicating weakening demand from ETFs and whales. As of early 2026, the price hovers around $88,500, prompting Moreno to forecast that the bear market bottom will be between $56,000 and $60,000 within the next year.
The estimated decline from the all-time high is about 55%, milder than the sharp crashes in past cycles like 2022. Moreno attributes this decline to waning spot demand, with US Bitcoin ETFs turning into net sellers in Q4 2025, selling about 24,000 BTC, whereas the previous year saw active accumulation.
A correction to $70,000 may occur within the next 3 to 6 months
The decline in Strategy’s buying volume has significantly eroded the key support for the bull market, and the company has thus built a reserve of $1.44 billion to cope with prolonged sideways or downward movement.
Despite the bleak outlook, Moreno considers this a relatively mild correction and urges long-term holders to avoid panic selling. Broader market signals, including the “Bear Score Index” returning to zero for the first time since 2022, reinforce the bearish bias unless new macro liquidity injections occur, such as a Fed rate cut. Analysts note that Bitcoin’s annual loss in 2025 is the first since 2022, posing a challenge to hopes of a rebound in 2026, and emphasize that if momentum fails to recover in time, risks will increase.
Based on the current weakness, CryptoQuant believes that Bitcoin’s downside risk is gradually emerging, with “$70,000” as the first key support zone. If the market cannot regain bullish momentum, further declines to $56,000 cannot be ruled out. Regarding the timing of market concerns, Moreno revealed: “A correction to $70,000 may occur within the next 3 to 6 months; as for a deeper drop to $56,000, if it happens, it could be in the second half of 2026.”
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