Trump's crypto interests become the biggest variable? US crypto regulation may be delayed until 2029 to be implemented

The long-awaited market structure legislation for the US cryptocurrency industry is facing significant delays due to political struggles and the crypto asset entanglements of the Trump family. Recent analysis indicates that this crypto regulation bill, originally seen as a “watershed moment” in regulation, may not be passed until 2027 at the earliest, with its actual implementation potentially delayed until 2029.

According to The Block citing TD Cowen’s policy research, the Senate is currently deadlocked on key provisions, with core disputes centered around whether to restrict current high-level government officials and their immediate family members from participating in cryptocurrency businesses. Democrats strongly advocate for including a “conflict of interest ban” in the bill, explicitly prohibiting the President and their family from operating or holding interests in crypto-related projects during their term.

This clause directly touches on Trump’s real interests. Since taking office in January 2025, Trump and his family have reportedly gained over $1 billion in direct profits from multiple crypto projects. These include World Liberty Financial (WLFI), a DeFi and stablecoin project co-founded by Trump and his three sons, as well as holdings in Bitcoin mining company American Bitcoin. Additionally, the Meme coins TRUMP and MELANIA, launched just before his inauguration, have also attracted significant market attention.

TD Cowen analyst Jaret Seiberg pointed out that if the conflict of interest clause takes effect immediately or in the short term, “it would be almost unacceptable for Trump.” A compromise would be to delay the clause’s implementation by three years, i.e., to enforce it after the bill is enacted, thus bypassing Trump’s current term. However, the problem is that the Democrats are unlikely to make concessions unilaterally.

Seiberg believes that unless the Republican Party agrees to postpone the entire crypto market structure bill by three years, the Democrats will not accept this arrangement. For the Democrats, delay is not necessarily a bad thing. The Republican Party needs at least 60 votes in the Senate to break procedural hurdles, which means they must secure support from 7 to 9 Democratic senators, giving Democrats enough leverage to delay the legislative process.

As the 2026 midterm elections approach, the probability of Democrats regaining control of the House increases, potentially further strengthening their bargaining position. If legislation is delayed until 2027 for passage and 2029 for implementation, the final rules are likely to be dominated by regulatory agencies appointed by the next president.

Against this backdrop, the uncertainty surrounding US cryptocurrency regulation is expected to persist for years. For the industry, Trump’s crypto interests are not only a political topic but could also be a key variable in determining the timeline for market structure reform.