Galaxy research shows that, when calculated in terms of USD purchasing power in 2020, the actual value of Bitcoin is about $99,848, falling short of the true milestone of $100,000. Inflation has made the fiat currency milestone for Bitcoin a moving target, and the market should pay more attention to its actual purchasing power behind it.
(Previous summary: Fidelity analysts: Bitcoin in 2026 is a “fallow year,” support range 65,000 to 75,000 USD)
(Background information: Market share has dropped from 80% to 20%, what happened to Hyperliquid?)
Recent research by Galaxy shows that, when adjusted for the purchasing power of the dollar in 2020, the actual value of Bitcoin is approximately $99,848, falling short of the true milestone of $100,000.
This contrast does not negate the rise of Bitcoin, but rather reveals the quiet rewriting of the milestones in fiat currency valuation due to inflation. For this institution-led cycle, this difference is of great practical significance.
The core impact of inflation is to change the actual value of the dollar. Over the past few years, the purchasing power of the dollar has significantly declined, and the current nominal prices need to be multiplied by 0.8 to convert them into 2020 dollars.
This means that the $100,000 in 2025 is only equivalent to $80,000 in 2020. To match the purchasing power of $100,000 in 2020, the nominal price of Bitcoin needs to be close to $125,000, and the peak of this cycle happens to be near that area, intensifying the controversy.
Institutions pay more attention to actual returns.
For institutions, actual returns are the core evaluation criteria. Institutions like pension funds do not care about nominal gains, but rather focus on returns after deducting inflation. This is also a necessary test for Bitcoin as it advances to macro assets.
The current CPI data is chaotic and adds more variables. In 2025, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will suspend CPI releases due to funding interruptions, and different statistical methodologies may yield slightly different results, making actual value assessments more complex.
The market reaction confirms this value divergence. Bitcoin fell sharply by 30% after its peak in October, and the assets under management of the US spot Bitcoin ETF dropped from a peak of $169.5 billion on October 6 to $120.7 billion on December 4.
However, on-chain data shows that the foundation remains solid, with Bitcoin's actual market value reaching a historical high of $1.125 trillion this year, reflecting the strengthening of long-term holders.
The future trend needs to follow 3 directions: first, changes in monetary policy will cause nominal values to revert; second, high inflation makes nominal new highs hollow numbers, and rising real yields intensify pressure; third, the demand for ETFs accelerates the breakthrough of resistance levels after inflation adjustments.
Citi predicts that the basic scenario for Bitcoin in 2026 will be $143,000, while the optimistic scenario exceeds $189,000, with the core variable still being ETF capital flows.
Essentially, inflation has turned the milestone of Bitcoin's fiat currency into a moving target. Bitcoin is often seen as a hedge against inflation, yet it is ironically rewritten by inflation at this iconic fiat currency milestone.
Next time when facing an integer threshold, the market should focus not on the number itself, but on the actual purchasing power behind it; this is the key to whether Bitcoin can truly enter a new era.
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