Bitcoin long-term holders' unrealized gains have dropped to a monthly low. Is the BTC price facing new downward pressure?

Recently, the price movement of Bitcoin has shown significant fluctuation. BTC experienced a brief rebound after a rapid dip, but the overall rebound strength is relatively weak, and market sentiment remains cautious. One of the key variables influencing the price movement currently is the behavioral changes of Bitcoin long-term holders.

On-chain data shows that the profitability of long-term Bitcoin holders is significantly declining. In the past few days, the selling activity of long-term holders has increased, and their 30-day supply change indicator has dropped to its lowest level in nearly 20 months. A similar situation occurred in April 2024, when the market was also under considerable selling pressure. This signal indicates that some long-term holders are actively reducing their positions to lock in remaining profits and avoid potential risks.

From a macro on-chain perspective, the net unrealized profit and loss (NUPL) of long-term holders has dropped to a monthly low, indicating that the overall floating profits of this group are shrinking. When profit margins are compressed, long-term holders' sensitivity to price declines significantly increases, which accelerates defensive selling. This behavior often suppresses the rebound of Bitcoin prices in the short term, as market supply increases while new demand does not expand correspondingly.

However, based on historical experience, when the long-term holder NUPL further dips, the selling pressure tends to gradually weaken. Some holders may choose to wait and see, stabilizing market supply and creating conditions for Bitcoin's price to stabilize or even rebound.

In terms of price movement, as of now, Bitcoin is hovering around $87,900, still constrained by the resistance level at $88,200. Previously, BTC briefly dipped below the support at $86,200 but quickly rebounded, indicating that there is still some buying strength at lower levels. In the short term, Bitcoin is expected to test the $90,300 level again, but if long-term holders continue to reduce their positions, the market may consolidate and fluctuate at high levels.

If the on-chain selling pressure significantly eases in the future and market sentiment improves, the possibility of Bitcoin's price breaking through $90,300 and further rising to the $92,900 region cannot be ruled out. This will become an important signal for assessing whether the mid-term trend of Bitcoin is strengthening, and it will also help restore market confidence.