The Chinese encryption community is hotly discussing the "Christmas market trend": the end of 2025 may become a touchstone for the market direction in 2026.

As the traditional “Christmas rally” on Wall Street approaches, the attention of the Chinese Crypto Twitter community towards the year-end market has noticeably increased. Unlike viewing it as a seasonal routine, more and more opinion leaders in the Chinese crypto circle believe that the market performance in the last few trading days of 2025 may become an important signal for judging the overall trend of crypto assets and risk assets in 2026.

In the Chinese crypto community, the macro analyst Phyrex, who is frequently quoted, pointed out that “the Christmas market is not simply a seasonal statistical phenomenon, but more like a thermometer for market risk appetite.” He believes that if risk assets such as Bitcoin and Ethereum can still rise during the Christmas to New Year period without any new macro-positive catalysts, it indicates that the willingness to allocate funds to risk assets still exists, which will lay the emotional foundation for the market in 2026. Conversely, if the rebound fails, it means that risk appetite has not yet been restored, and the market may maintain a volatile or weak pattern in January or even longer.

From a mechanism perspective, the year-end market is usually supported by multiple factors, including the capital inflow after the tax loss harvesting ends, the small buying amplification effect caused by the decrease in trading activity during the institutional holiday period, as well as year-end bonuses and passive capital inflows. US market commentator Michael Chao also emphasized historical data, stating that since 1950, the S&P 500 has had an approximately 75% probability of rising during the “Christmas rally” window period, with an average increase of 1.55%. This is also an important reason why the crypto market closely follows the trends of the US stock market.

But the risks cannot be ignored either. Some KOLs in the Crypto Assets space point out that the global trading volume of Bitcoin and Ethereum has dropped to a yearly low, and it currently resembles a “liquidity vacuum period,” which is not suitable for aggressive trading. Meanwhile, the macro environment remains tight: the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike has raised concerns about yen arbitrage trading, and the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance is putting pressure on global risk assets.

In terms of regulation, Chinese domestic investors have limited choices. Recently, several financial industry associations jointly issued risk warnings, further tightening activities related to Crypto Assets, stablecoins, and RWA tokenization, which means that domestic funds can only passively follow the performance of overseas markets.

Overall, Chinese crypto assets Twitter users view the “Christmas rally” as a crucial test: if risk assets remain weak at the end of the year, it may indicate that the market will still face deeper challenges in early 2026. At present, whether it is the price trend of Bitcoin, the market sentiment of Ethereum, or whether the US stock market can continue its year-end rebound, all have become significant indicators of attention for the Chinese crypto community.