ICOs are not guaranteed profits; rational analysis of actual needs, marketing narratives, and market timing is essential to avoid becoming a victim of others’ exit liquidity. Before investing, be sure to evaluate the product, team, valuation, data, marketing, token economics, and market environment. This article is based on an original piece by Ola Ξlixir, compiled, translated, and written by AididiaoJP, Foresight News.
(Previous summary: Why are ICOs regaining dominance in on-chain fundraising? The three core reasons that beat airdrops)
(Additional background: Update » Coinbase leaks “OpenSea platform token $SEA” ICO plan? OpenSea responds: Fake!)

Table of Contents

• 1. The product is fundamental
• 2. The team is crucial
• 3. Investors and valuation
• 4. Look at real data, not surface numbers
• 5. Marketing and storytelling ability
• 6. Issuance terms and valuation
• 7. Market environment is key
• Final thoughts

Public ICOs are not guaranteed profits; rational analysis of actual needs, marketing narratives, and market timing is essential to avoid becoming a victim of others’ exit liquidity. ICOs have become the hottest topic on crypto Twitter recently, everyone is discussing them.

Everyone thinks they’ve found the next MegaETH or Plasma.

But most people overlook a key point:

Among these ICOs, only a few are truly profitable; this has always been the case in the crypto market.

A project has created a new model, and it succeeded.

Later, ten teams follow suit, copying the model, thinking they can succeed the same way, but such success is hard to replicate, and eight or nine out of ten will fail.

Now, every team wants to do an ICO just because MegaETH and Plasma became popular.

They think, rather than airdropping tokens to you, it’s better to let you spend your own money to “enter the game.”

However, those two projects succeeded because they were well-planned before execution.

Before you invest in any ICO, consider the following points.

1. The product is fundamental

Don’t bother with flashy PPTs and KOL hype posts.

Ask yourself a simple question:

Does this product truly solve a current real-world problem? Does it have actual innovation? Why do they need to issue tokens?

If this product only exists in “future stories” or requires a bunch of assumptions to work, it’s very risky.

Good ICOs usually already have something operational, not just false promises or testnet data.

If they can’t clearly explain what the product does in one sentence, that’s your first red flag.

2. The team is crucial

The quality of a project depends on the strength of the team behind it.

Check their past track record:

Have they built any products in or outside the crypto space before?

Experience is a plus, indicating they’ve been down this road.

Anonymous teams aren’t necessarily bad,

but they must deliver extraordinary results to earn trust.

In changing markets, strong teams can adapt flexibly;

weak teams will disappear as hype fades—this is a “attention economy” domain.

3. Investors and valuation

Who invested in this project? Top-tier VCs or third-rate funds?

How much money did they raise? What’s the valuation?

This is more important than many realize.

If insiders and early investors entered at a very low valuation, you’re likely just their “bag holder.”

Good ICOs, even without hype, have a solid valuation logic;

bad ICOs rely only on hype and vanity metrics to justify their price.

4. Look at real data, not surface numbers

Do they have actual revenue? How many active users and what is the total value locked (TVL)?

Most importantly, the quality of these data—any data can be faked.

Testnet data can be easily inflated, making it meaningless.

A dashboard full of fake activity won’t turn into real usage overnight; Monad is a clear example.

Check whether user demand is genuine and natural—are people willing to use the product without incentives,

or are they just chasing the last possible airdrop?

5. Marketing and storytelling ability

Marketing’s importance exceeds many people’s expectations.

MegaETH’s marketing was very well executed.

The team controls everything, fully managing the narrative.

Everyone is actively discussing MegaETH.

In the Web3 world, attention is everything.

If an ICO has no attention before launch, don’t expect miracles afterward—think of Monad.

Good projects know from the start how to tell their story clearly.

Bad projects only hide behind buzzwords: “We are building Web3’s next ChatGPT+Nvidia+market prediction…” Well, the story sounds good.

6. Issuance terms and valuation

Read the terms carefully:

• Token unlock rules
• Vesting schedule
• Circulating supply
• Fully diluted valuation (FDV)

Understanding tokenomics thoroughly is very important. If you don’t understand, use AI tools to help analyze.

If the ICO structure heavily favors insiders and shifts all risks to retail investors, stay far away.

Fair issuance doesn’t mean cheap; it means aligning the interests of the project team and participants.

7. Market environment is key

This is the most easily overlooked point.

In a true bull market, a decent project can reach a fully diluted valuation of $500 million to $1 billion just through narrative.

But even the hottest projects now often only maintain a valuation of $100 million to $300 million.

This directly affects your risk and return judgment.

The same project can have vastly different outcomes in different market conditions.

Timing isn’t everything, but it’s never irrelevant.

Final thoughts

ICOs are not free money; they never were.

This current trend will produce some winners and leave a long trail of lessons.

Don’t buy just because others are buying or because your favorite KOL is promoting it.

Don’t assume all promoted projects now will be the next MegaETH.

And the worst projects will only exploit your FOMO and chase hype without any real substance.

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