動區BlockTempo

With the dramatic change in Venezuela's political situation, Maduro was detained by the US military, and the shadow reserves of Bitcoin worth up to $60 billion have become a mystery. These crypto assets accumulated through gold swaps and oil transactions—who actually controls them? Who holds the key private keys? This article is based on "Maduro's 'Lightning Strike' by the United States: Where Will Venezuela's 'Legendary $60 Billion Bitcoin' Go?" by Ye Huiwen from Wall Street Insights, reorganized by律動.
(Previous summary: Data: Predictive market 'spoils' Maduro's fall with $10 million in advance)
(Background supplement: US lawmakers propose legislation to ban government officials from insider trading in prediction markets! Polymarket suspected of leaks in Maduro arrest plan)
Table of Contents
Digital Assets of the Shadow Financial Empire
Gold Swap and Crypto Channels
The Role of Key Figure Alex Saab
Crude Oil

Hours before Maduro's arrest, Polymarket odds shifts indicated that some funds had already locked in the outcome hours earlier, with total participation exceeding $50 million. This event has sparked U.S. lawmakers to consider restricting officials' involvement in prediction markets.
(Background: Trump ordered bombing of Venezuela's capital! Bitcoin dropped below 90,000 USD, ETH held steady at 3100)
(Additional context: U.S. lawmakers plan to introduce legislation to ban civil servants from insider trading in prediction markets! Polymarket suspected of leaks and planning to arrest Maduro)
Table of Contents
On-chain leaks of military actions?
Lawmakers' concern as "Public Integrity" bill is drafted
Capital shifts: Venezuela assets reprice
At 10 PM Eastern Time on January 2, the contract price on the decentralized prediction platform Polymarket for "Will Maduro step down in January" suddenly jumped

Lending Protocol Aave experienced governance conflicts after Christmas. Founder Stani Kulechov proposed a "Protocol External Revenue Sharing" governance proposal on January 3rd to turn the situation around, also leading Aave onto the dividend distribution route.
(Previous background: AAVE internal conflict intensifies: the second-largest whale liquidates and admits to losing tens of millions of dollars, with a 20% drop in a single week)
(Additional background: Aave's internal turmoil sparks community outrage over "hidden privatization": fee income flows into Aave)

Before the U.S. military detained Venezuelan President Maduro, Polymarket experienced suspected insider trading, which appeared to be based on prior knowledge of the news, prompting Congressman Ritchie Torres to propose restrictions on officials betting in prediction markets.
(Background: Heaven, Earth, Humanity, and Harmony—why did prediction markets take nearly 40 years to explode?)
(Additional context: 26 predictions about the development of prediction markets in 2026)
Table of Contents
Mysterious Bets Surge 12 Times
Prediction Market Legislation "Fixes Loopholes"
On-Chain Anonymity Brings Law Enforcement Challenges
In the early hours of the 3rd, U.S. special forces arrested President Maduro in Caracas. Hours before the operation was exposed, the blockchain prediction platform Polymarket saw a new account place a $32,500 bet on "Maduro stepping down."
Mysterious Bets Surge 12 Times
When the world received the news...

Last year, Brother Ma, who aggressively went long but suffered a huge loss of over 10 million USD, achieved a long-awaited victory in early 2026. Now, is he planning to add to his position while the momentum is high?
(Background: Brother Ma previously faced setbacks with his long positions, and Bitcoin OG whale floated a loss of 56 million USD)
(Additional context: In November, Brother Ma was liquidated 71 times by Hyperliquid, earning the title of "Liquidation King"! Aster is opening Brother Ma mode next week)
The bull didn't return, but well-known trader Brother Ma made a profit from the rebound in early 2026! Today, he closed a 40x leveraged Bitcoin (BTC) long position and realized approximately 1.53 million USD profit, then quickly shifted funds into Ethereum (ETH) and HYPE tokens within the Hyperliquid ecosystem, continuing to go long while the trend is favorable.
40x BTC position fully closed
According to Hyperliq

In 2025, global ETF net inflows surged to $1.49 trillion, led by US stocks and gold. BlackRock's IBIT became the only product among the top 15 with negative returns, highlighting a trend of capital withdrawal from Bitcoin and shifting toward the stock market.
(Background: Fidelity's 2026 Crypto Market Outlook Report: More countries may establish Bitcoin reserves, and long-term holding of BTC remains profitable)
(Additional context: Bitcoin reaches $90,000, so why do meme coins PEPE and DOGE always rally at the peak?)
Table of Contents
Capital favors stocks, ETF net inflows set records
IBIT changes from star to drag
Policy and market psychology exert dual pressure
Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas compiled the 2025 global ETF performance on the X platform, with total net inflows reaching 1.4

SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic are set to go public collectively in 2026, with a total valuation reaching up to 2.5 trillion USD, marking an unprecedented stress test for market funding.
(Background recap: Musk's net worth approaches 750 billion USD, the first in history! Court restores sky-high salaries, SpaceX IPO sparks imagination)
(Additional background: Tether reiterates: We will return to the US market! Targeting institutional clients, but not following Circle's IPO approach)
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Timeline and valuation of three super IPOs
SpaceX: Physical revenue as a backing
OpenAI, Anthropic: AGI valuation undergoes its first public scrutiny
Is the market capable of absorbing this?
2026 is just beginning, Financial Times reports that SpaceX, OpenA

Bitcoin breaks through $91,000, but futures basis is only 4%, and leverage levels are low, indicating that the spot buying demand after the end-of-2025 washout is leading.
(Background: Trump orders bombing of Caracas! Bitcoin drops below 90,000, ETH holds firm at 3100)
(Additional context: Global ETF growth in 2025 "attracts $1.5 trillion in funds," with BlackRock Bitcoin IBIT being the only one in the top 15 to incur losses)
Table of Contents
Low basis highlights spot buying
Capital flows back after ETF year-end settlement
Calm in the options market
As of January 4, 2026, Bitcoin (BTC) price steadily rose past $91,000 during Asian morning hours, hitting a nearly three-week high. Unlike typical sentiment-driven rallies, on-chain and derivatives data indicate this is a wave of deep deleveraging at the end of 2025.

Amid the weakening of the US dollar and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, the market is re-evaluating Bitcoin's prospects. Analysts believe 2026 will become a significant turning point for digital assets. Bitcoin is currently consolidating and has not kept pace with the rally in precious metals; macroeconomic factors may influence its future performance.

Elon Musk failed to fulfill several commitments in 2025, including Tesla's Robotaxi coverage, full autonomous driving technology, government spending cuts, and the realization of artificial intelligence and Mars projects, leading the market to reassess the reliability of his future guidance.