Itaú Unibanco recommends clients allocate 1% to 3% of their funds into Bitcoin, opening a new front for Brazilian investors to hedge against the depreciation of the real.
(Background recap: The printing presses are running again! The Federal Reserve has launched the “Reserve Management Purchase Program,” and starting from 12/12 for 30 days, it will buy $40 billion worth of short-term government bonds)
(Additional background: Silver surpasses $60 to hit a new all-time high! This year’s increase exceeds 100%, ranking as the sixth-largest asset globally)

Table of Contents

• The 3% Golden Rule: Low Correlation Results
• The “Digital Shield” in Exchange Rate Storms
• Institutional Consensus from Wall Street to São Paulo
• Risks and Discipline: Warnings from Bankers

This is not a miracle story about getting rich overnight, but a survival guide from Itaú Unibanco, Brazil’s leading private bank, given the strong dollar and the real’s sharp decline toward the end of 2025. On December 14, Itaú Asset Management, managing $500 billion in assets, officially recommended clients allocate 1% to 3% of their positions into Bitcoin, adding a “safety cushion” to their portfolios.

The 3% Golden Rule: Low Correlation Results

Itaú’s internal report notes that Bitcoin’s correlation with traditional Brazilian assets remains around 0.5 in the long term, dropping as low as 0.17 during market panic. In other words, when São Paulo’s stock market plunges due to political events or economic data, Bitcoin often moves in the opposite direction. Through multiple Monte Carlo simulations, the team identified a “sweet spot”—converting 1% to 3% of holdings into Bitcoin can effectively reduce overall volatility while avoiding extreme fluctuations in cryptocurrency dragging down overall returns. Renato Eid, head of Itaú’s Beta strategy, emphasizes:

“Our goal is not to make crypto assets the centerpiece, but to have them serve as a weighting in the portfolio.”

The “Digital Shield” in Exchange Rate Storms

In 2025, the “America First” policy promoted by the Trump administration pulled global dollar funds back home, causing the real to drop to a low of 1 USD to 6.30. For Brazilian investors, even with nominal local returns of 10%, there’s a risk of real-term setbacks when measured against the dollar. Since Bitcoin is priced in USD, it functions as an international insurance policy: the weaker the real against the dollar, the higher Bitcoin’s price in real terms. Facing 12% to 15% annual depreciation pressure, this “digital shield” can partially hedge against purchasing power erosion and lock in global asset value.

From Wall Street to São Paulo: Institutional Consensus

Itaú’s move is not isolated but part of a broader shift in global asset allocation. Recently, Bank of America also advised wealth clients to allocate 1% to 4% in crypto assets; BlackRock, managing over a trillion dollars, suggested around 2%. For Brazil, this aligns the country with international trends and serves as a form of domestic defense. In response to the rapid expansion of fintech leader Nubank, Itaú is leveraging Bitcoin ETF BITI11 and its own íon app to turn hedging needs into management and transaction fees, maintaining the competitive moat of a century-old bank.

Risks and Discipline: Warnings from Bankers

Itaú does not outline a “moonshot” price trajectory but instead reminds investors that Bitcoin’s volatility remains three to four times that of the S&P 500. “Don’t try to time the market,” the report states, “Disciplined holding is key.” As Brazil’s Central Bank implements a new regulatory framework for cryptocurrencies in 2025, Itaú, under strict regulation, becomes a compliant gateway for conservative funds entering the crypto space. Investors gain an umbrella, but must also bear the weight of holding it.

The conclusion is simple: at a time when dollar liquidity is being drained globally and the real faces turbulence, Bitcoin has transformed from a “casino chip” to a defensive tool. Itaú’s 3% recommendation is not a loud-fanfare wealth-building promotion but a wake-up call in an era of inflation: putting a small amount of capital on-chain might be the last insurance premium to protect wealth beyond the last mile.

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