This week, both Bitcoin and Ethereum saw a significant rebound, but XRP continued to fluctuate within the narrow range it has maintained since mid-November. Despite an on-chain indicator that typically signals a bullish trend reaching a three-month high, the price has yet to break out. The key reason behind this lies in the divergence between long-term holder behavior and the overall on-chain structure.
On-chain data shows that the number of spent tokens has dropped sharply over the past month, falling from 186.36 million XRP on November 15 to about 16.32 million currently—a plummet of 91% and the lowest level in three months. The reduction in older supply means selling pressure in the market has dropped significantly, which normally helps prices stabilize or even rebound. As a result, the dormancy rate rising to a three-month high should be a positive sign.
However, long-term holders continue to reduce their holdings, offsetting this positive signal. HODL Waves data indicates that the proportion held by the 6-12 month group fell from 26.18% to 21.65%; the 1-2 year group decreased from 9.34% to 8.61%; the 2-3 year group also declined slightly. These older holders are usually the stable backbone of trends, and their decline means upward momentum is weakened.
(Source: Glassnode)
Although there has been increased accumulation by whales recently, the continued outflow of long-term supply is still suppressing price performance. For XRP to see a substantial rebound, the market needs to see these key holder groups stop selling.
From a technical perspective, the chart also shows a stalemate. Since November, XRP has attempted several times to break through $2.28 without success; this level is the core resistance for forming an uptrend. If the daily close can successfully break above $2.28, it will open up space to target $2.56 and $2.69. However, if the price falls below $1.98, it could trigger a pullback to $1.81.
The current structure is clear: dormancy has surged, selling pressure has decreased, but long-term supply continues to flow out. Unless the holder groups stabilize and the price closes above $2.28, XRP may continue to fluctuate within the current range. (BeinCrypto)
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