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November crypto market review and hot topic analysis

PANews

2025-12-01 03:07:24

TL, DR

In November 2025, the United States faced a government shutdown that resulted in missing key economic data. Coupled with weak employment, declining consumption, and unclear policy direction, market expectations fluctuated. There was a divergence between economic growth and inflation signals. Although external risks have somewhat eased, the overall recovery remains moderate, with an increased reliance on policy transparency, data recovery, and market confidence.
In November, the average daily trading volume of the crypto market was approximately $180.8 billion, showing characteristics of short-term activity with frequent inflows and outflows of funds, but lacking a sustained trend. During the same period, the total market capitalization dropped from about $3.88 trillion to a low of $2.98 trillion, with several brief rebounds failing to reverse the overall downward trend. Newly launched popular tokens such as Monad, Pieverse, and Allora saw active trading, but meme projects had lower activity levels.
In November, the BTC spot ETF saw a significant net outflow of $35.8 billion, while the ETH spot ETF had a net inflow of $8.34 billion. At the same time, the overall circulation of stablecoins decreased by $2.34 billion, indicating that the crypto market is significantly affected by price declines and low market sentiment, leading to notable fluctuations in capital flow.
Last week, BTC fell by about 8%, but the pullback attracted bargain buying, and it is currently trying to return above $88,000. Whether it can break through the 20-day EMA ($94,620) in the short term will determine the dominant direction between bulls and bears; ETH and SOL are also oscillating near key moving averages. ETH faces resistance in the $3,148–$3,350 range, while SOL is testing bullish strength in the $126–$145 range. If both break through their respective key moving averages, market sentiment may turn bullish; otherwise, bears will still dominate, and the risk of downward correction remains.
This month's highlights include Coinbase launching its token public offering feature for the first time, Monad showing significant volatility, and Uniswap proposing the “UNIfication” proposal, which aims to enhance the protocol value and long-term competitiveness of UNI through a deflationary mechanism and governance restructuring. Looking ahead to next month, Circle is accelerating its Arc ecosystem layout and exploring native token issuance, while Dogecoin and XRP ETFs have been approved for listing, marking the official launch of the altcoin ETF market, with more token products likely to be accelerated in the future.

1. Macro Perspective

In November 2025, the United States experienced a government shutdown that resulted in the absence of key economic data, leading to multiple reversals in the market's assessment of the fundamentals and a clear divergence in economic expectations. Although the earnings reports from AI and high-tech companies have been decent, weak employment, declining consumption, and unclear policy direction have made the overall economic performance quite complex.

Policy Direction

In November, the Federal Reserve emphasized maintaining patience in the absence of data to avoid creating new shocks to the fragile economic environment. The statistical disruptions caused by the government shutdown have created an information gap for policymakers, leading to fluctuating market expectations regarding the future path of interest rates. On one hand, weakening employment has led some market participants to bet on earlier rate cuts; on the other hand, persistent inflation and fiscal risks have strengthened the argument for keeping rates higher for longer. Policy expectations have been shifting between easing and caution, becoming the main source of volatility in the financial markets in November.

U.S. Stock Market Trends

In November, the US stock market experienced a significant pullback under the pressure of fluctuating policy expectations, with uncertainty regarding the timing of interest rate cuts, data gaps caused by government shutdowns, and weakening employment and consumption collectively suppressing market risk appetite. At the end of the month, driven by renewed interest rate cut expectations and a decline in long-term US Treasury yields, the three major stock indexes saw a brief rebound. The future trajectory of the US stock market depends on whether core data confirms economic slowdown and inflation decline, which would allow the Federal Reserve to continue lowering interest rates in December. If policies are clear and liquidity improves, the market is expected to regain upward momentum; otherwise, the technology and growth sectors may still face further valuation correction pressure.

Inflation remains above target

Due to the impact of the government shutdown, the absence of some inflation subcategory data has increased short-term instability in the market's judgment on price trends. Although the latest data shows that price pressures have eased slightly, prices in sectors such as services and housing remain relatively strong, indicating that structural inflation has not completely dissipated. The Federal Reserve reiterated that one cannot rely on a single signal to make judgments in the context of discontinuous data; the inflation path still requires several months of complete samples for verification.

The job market has further weakened

The interruption of employment market statistics in November has caused a certain degree of concealment of the real situation, making judgment even more difficult. The delayed non-farm report for September released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics shows an increase of 119,000 jobs, significantly exceeding expectations, but the unemployment rate rose to its highest level in four years at 4.4%, and the data for the previous two months were revised down significantly. The reports for October and November will be released together on December 16, which means that the September report will be the last employment report the Federal Reserve can see before its meeting on December 10, making the decision in December more challenging.

Political, financial and external risks remain

Although the government shutdown has ended and fiscal spending and statistical work are gradually resuming, the previously accumulated contract delays and budget pressures still require time to digest. Meanwhile, the external environment showed significant improvement in November: the resumption of U.S.-China negotiations and the achievement of a phased agreement helps reduce tensions in the technology and trade sectors; the Russia-Ukraine conflict also shows signs of nearing a ceasefire, with geopolitical spillover risks significantly decreasing. The external uncertainties are turning towards improvement, creating conditions for stabilizing global supply chains and repairing corporate expectations.

Prospect

As the government resumes normal operations, missing data will be gradually supplemented in the coming weeks. The future recovery path depends on whether inflation can continue to decline with complete data support, whether employment can stabilize under policy support, and whether loose policies can regain a clear direction after repeated expectations. Overall, the United States is in a loose cycle, with moderate economic recovery but increasing volatility, and the recovery process is becoming more dependent on policy transparency and market confidence.

2. Overview of the Crypto Market

Currency Data Analysis

Trading Volume & Daily Growth Rate

According to CoinGecko data, as of November 26, the overall trading volume in the cryptocurrency market has fluctuated significantly, with an average daily trading volume of approximately $180.8 billion. Overall, after a brief pullback in early November, there was a rapid rebound in trading volume. Throughout mid-November, the trading volume remained stable in a higher range with frequent inflows and outflows of funds. Although there were again some localized peaks in trading volume in late November, they failed to create sustained momentum, and the trading volume subsequently fell significantly, indicating that funds preferred short-term speculation rather than establishing a trending layout.

Total Market Cap & Daily Growth

According to CoinGecko data, as of November 26, the overall market value of the cryptocurrency market has shown a fluctuating downward trend. At the beginning of the month, the market value was about $3.8 trillion, and then, after several minor rebounds and pullbacks, the focus continued to shift downwards, with new lows being set (dropping from $3.88 trillion to a minimum of $2.98 trillion). During this period, there were several brief rebounds of 2%-3%, but none of them reversed the overall downward structure. Overall, the performance of the market value in November was relatively weak, showing characteristics of structural adjustment, and the market's panic sentiment spread.

New Popular Tokens Launched in November

The popular tokens launched in November are still primarily VC-backed projects, with lower meme activity. Among them, projects like Monad, Pieverse, and Allora have stood out, showing relatively active trading volume after their launch.

3. On-chain data analysis

Analysis of BTC and ETH ETF Inflows and Outflows

November BTC Spot ETF Net Outflow of 35.8 Billion USD

This month, there has been a significant outflow of BTC spot ETFs, with a net outflow of $35.8 billion for the month, a decrease of 23.9% compared to last month. This trend is mainly influenced by the decline in BTC prices, which fell by 20.6% during the month, leading to redemption pressure and a simultaneous shrinkage in the total asset value of the ETFs. Since the black swan event on October 11, the overall rebound of crypto assets has been weak, with BTC and other tokens showing insufficient price recovery, resulting in persistent low market sentiment and further exacerbating the outflow of funds.

November ETH Spot ETF Net Inflow of $8.34 Billion

This month, ETH spot ETFs experienced significant outflows, with a net outflow of $8.34 billion for the month, a decrease of 31.3% compared to the previous month. The drop in BTC prices led to a substantial decline in the overall crypto market, and the continued sluggishness of the market exacerbated the outflow of funds from ETH ETFs.

Analysis of Stablecoin Inflows and Outflows

Total circulation of stablecoins decreased by $2.34 billion in November

Affected by the significant downturn in the crypto market, the influx of off-exchange funds has noticeably slowed, and the overall circulation of stablecoins has declined for the first time since 2025. Apart from USDT and PYUSD, which still maintain a slight net inflow, other mainstream stablecoins have recorded significant outflows, with USDE experiencing a sharp decline in market confidence due to the black swan event on October 11 and multiple algorithmic stablecoins losing their peg, resulting in a monthly circulation drop of about 26.5%. Additionally, leading stablecoins such as USDC and DAI have also seen varying degrees of contraction due to sluggish market sentiment.

4. Price Analysis of Mainstream Currencies

BTC Price Change Analysis

BTC fell by about 8% last week due to weakened overall market sentiment, but the pullback successfully attracted bargain hunters. As the new week begins, bulls are trying to push the price back above $88,000, which shows that confidence has somewhat recovered after last week's volatility.

Currently, BTC is rebounding from a sharp drop to a low of $80,600, but the upward path remains challenging. The 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA, $94,620) is still a key resistance that could determine the short-term trend. If the price encounters strong rejection at this moving average, it would indicate that bearish sentiment still dominates, and sellers are likely to exit positions during the rebound. In this case, a downward correction may accelerate, targeting the historically significant support zone at $73,777, where buying interest may attempt to regain control.

If the bulls hope to gain substantial momentum, BTC must effectively break through and hold above the 20-day EMA to prove that the recent selling pressure has significantly weakened. Once the price stabilizes above this level, market sentiment may clearly shift towards a bullish tilt, giving BTC/USDT the opportunity to further approach the next important psychological threshold: 100,000 USD.

ETH Price Change Analysis

ETH is trying to recover from its recent decline, but it faces significant supply pressure between the 20-day EMA ($3,148) and $3,350. This area has previously acted as resistance multiple times, and buyers will need stronger momentum to effectively break through. If ETH fails to break above this resistance zone, bears may quickly regain an advantage. If it drops below $2,623, it will strongly confirm the start of a new downtrend and may lead ETH to further decline to $2,400, or even as low as $2,111.

Conversely, if ETH strongly breaks above $3,350, it will indicate a resurgence of buyer momentum, willing to support at higher price levels. In this scenario, ETH/USDT has the opportunity to challenge the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $3,659. If the closing price can hold above the 50-day SMA, it will further validate the reversal of market sentiment, suggesting that bulls are preparing for a larger-scale rebound.

SOL Price Change Analysis

SOL is attempting to stabilize at the support level of $126, but the current rebound strength is weak, indicating insufficient buying interest. This cautious attitude suggests that bulls remain hesitant in the face of recent market sluggishness. If SOL fails to build momentum and pulls back from the current price level or the 20-day EMA ($145), it will indicate that bears still firmly control the high price area. A drop below $126 could further trigger an accelerated decline, targeting $110, and may even test $95 afterward — an area that has historically been an important support.

However, if the buyer successfully pushes SOL up and stabilizes above the 20-day EMA, it can be seen as an early signal of a bullish return. If the closing price can remain stable above this key moving average, SOL is expected to further rebound to the 50-day SMA ($174), where the bulls will face their next significant test.

5. Hot events this month

Coinbase public sale feature goes live for the first time, Monad's performance falls short of expectations

This month, Coinbase announced the launch of the first public offering project for its token fundraising feature, which is Monad. Starting from November 17, the platform will sell 7.5 billion MON tokens to the public at a public offering price of $0.025, accounting for 7.5% of the total token supply, with a project valuation of approximately $2.5 billion. Before its launch, the highest trading price of MON on Binance's over-the-counter market reached about $0.051, corresponding to a market capitalization of nearly $5.1 billion, indicating a relatively optimistic market sentiment.

However, after officially opening on November 24, the MON price plummeted sharply, dropping to a low of about $0.0204, during which it briefly fell below the public offering price, causing panic selling in the short term. Subsequently, as the selling pressure was digested, the price quickly rebounded, reaching as high as $0.048. As of November 28, the first public offering project on Coinbase still recorded a maximum return rate of about 92%, showing a significant volatile market structure.

Uniswap Launches the “UNIfication” Proposal: Restructuring Protocol Value and Transforming Governance Framework

This month, Uniswap founder Hayden Adams and Uniswap Labs officially submitted the “UNIfication” proposal, which focuses on activating the protocol fee switch and introducing a deflationary mechanism, shifting UNI from a governance token to an asset that can actually capture the value of the protocol. The proposal first proposes a one-time destruction of 100 million UNI as retroactive compensation, followed by the initiation of a long-term deflationary mechanism: extracting part of the LP trading fees from v2 and v3 pools to inject into the TokenJar, with the contract achieving value recapture through the destruction of UNI; at the same time, introducing protocol fee discount auctions, with the auction proceeds also used to destroy UNI.

At the governance level, the proposal suggests restructuring Uniswap's governance framework into a Wyoming DUNA entity “DUNI,” strengthening legal liability protection; Labs will also integrate the ecology and product teams and eliminate interface, wallet, and API fees, fully focusing on protocol growth. The market has responded positively, with UNI significantly rising after the announcement. However, the activation of the fee switch may lead to a decrease in LP earnings, triggering some liquidity migration. But in the long term, Uniswap is attempting to leverage its brand and technological advantages (especially v4) to expand from a single DEX to a platform-level ecosystem. Overall, “UNIfication” marks a comprehensive upgrade for Uniswap in terms of its economic model and organizational structure. If progress goes smoothly, it will reshape UNI's value logic and enhance the protocol's long-term competitiveness.

6. Outlook for next month

Circle Accelerates Arc Ecosystem Layout, Exploring Native Token Issuance as a Strategic Turning Point

This month, stablecoin issuance giant Circle released its Q3 financial and business progress report, focusing on the ecological expansion and potential token plans of its new public chain Arc. The public testnet for Arc was launched at the end of October, with over 100 institutions participating so far. In the report, Circle explicitly stated that it is exploring the issuance of a native token on the Arc network for the first time, indicating that the company is transitioning from a single stablecoin issuer to a blockchain infrastructure builder and is attempting to enhance the ecological loop of Arc through token incentives, in order to consolidate its competitive advantage in the fields of stablecoin payments, foreign exchange, and capital markets.

In terms of financial performance, Circle's revenue in the third quarter increased by 66% year-on-year to approximately $740 million, with net profit surging by 202% year-on-year. The market capitalization of USDC surpassed $73 billion, firmly maintaining its position as the second-largest stablecoin globally. With tightening global regulations, the compliance advantages of MiCA becoming prominent, and the narrative around stablecoins continuing to gain traction, Circle views the layout of Arc as a key strategy to respond to Tether's public chain ecosystem expansion. If the native token is successfully launched, it will become a core lever for driving the adoption and community participation of the Arc network, and may form a new growth engine in the fields of DeFi, RWA, and cross-border payments.

Doge and XRP ETFs Approved, Altcoin ETF Season Officially Begins

On November 26, the Dogecoin and XRP spot ETFs officially launched, marking the entry of altcoin assets into the ETF era. Data shows that the DOGE spot ETF had a net inflow of $365,000 on its first day, while the XRP spot ETF saw a net inflow of up to $21.81 million on the day it went live. This not only signifies that mainstream altcoins have officially entered a compliant financial channel, but it also indicates that the issuance of altcoin ETFs will enter a phase of intensive explosion, with more token products likely to accelerate regulatory implementation in the future.

At the same time, Bitwise is advancing the process for the Avalanche spot ETF by submitting an application update to the SEC. The ETF code is BAVA, with a management fee of 0.34%, and plans to use 70% of its AVAX holdings for staking, making it one of the first crypto ETFs in the US market with a revenue generation mechanism. In comparison, VanEck's Avalanche ETF has a fee of 0.40%, while Grayscale's product is as high as 0.50%. As the competition for ETFs enters the phase of comparing rates and revenue structures, crypto assets are rapidly integrating into the traditional financial valuation system, evolving from a single asset exposure to an investment product that can generate returns.

ALLO-0.55%

AVAX-9.74%

BTC-6.04%

DAI-0.07%

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