Solana (SOL) is at risk of falling sharply to the bottom zone of April as ETF capital flows and investor sentiment weaken.

Solana (SOL) is experiencing a consecutive three-week fall, with this week alone losing more than 13% of its value. Just two weeks after the launch of Solana spot ETFs in America, the net capital inflow has dropped to a record low, reflecting a significant weakening in demand from institutional investors. At the same time, the derivative market has also become more pessimistic as the broad correction spreads, significantly reducing the risk appetite for Solana.

Technically, the outlook for Solana remains bleak as the bears continue to target the bottom range of 125 USD established in June.

Demand for Solana fluctuates as market volatility increases

Solana continues to lose momentum and investor confidence as the cryptocurrency market plunges following Bitcoin (BTC), with the largest cryptocurrency falling below the $100,000 threshold. According to data from Sosovalue, Solana spot ETFs in America attracted only a net inflow of $1.49 million on Thursday, primarily from Bitwise's Solana staking ETF. This is the lowest level since this series of ETFs launched, reflecting a significant cooling from institutional investors and a trend of risk aversion as the market experiences high volatility.

ETF data of Solana | Source: SosovalueThe gloomy trend has also spread to the derivatives market. Trading sentiment has turned pessimistic as investors reduce their exposure to Solana futures. Data from CoinGlass shows that open contracts (OI) — the total nominal value of SOL futures contracts — has decreased by 3.34% in the past 24 hours, down to 7.35 billion USD. This indicates that traders are reducing their Long positions or lowering their leverage.

Additionally, the funding rate has unexpectedly shifted to a negative level of -0.0076%, moving away from the previous neutral state. This development indicates that traders are willing to pay fees to maintain short positions, reflecting expectations that Solana's correction may continue.

SOL derive data | Source: CoinGlassIf capital continues to leave the derive market or Solana ETFs record the first net outflow, the recovery prospects of SOL will face many challenges — and the bulls will have to double their efforts to turn the situation around.

Technical Outlook: Will Solana Extend Its Fall to 100 USD?

Solana continues to extend its weakening trend this week, marking the fourth consecutive decline and officially losing the psychological threshold of 150 USD. At the time of writing, SOL fell nearly 2% in Friday's session, approaching the bottom area of 126 USD established on June 22. If this important support level is breached, the price of SOL could retreat deep to the psychological threshold of 100 USD, before re-testing the bottom of 95 USD formed on April 7.

The current downtrend has resulted in a clear dominance of red candles in the short term, continuing to exert pressure on the 50-day EMA, which is sloping downward and converging with the 200-day EMA. This crossover increases the risk of a “death cross” pattern emerging — a strong sell signal indicating that the short-term downtrend has completely overshadowed the long-term trend.

Daily SOL/USDT Chart | Source: TradingViewOn the daily frame, momentum has also shifted to negative as the MACD line continuously fails to cross above the signal line, maintaining a weakening trend. At the same time, the RSI has slid down to 31, approaching the oversold zone, reflecting a surge in selling pressure. However, the fact that the RSI is nearing the oversold zone while SOL continues to create new lows opens up the possibility of forming a bullish divergence — an early signal for a technical rebound.

In the event that SOL rebounds and surpasses the 155 USD mark — an area that was once a bridge but has now turned into a supply area — the price may aim to retest the important resistance zone of 175 USD.

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