Solana founder warns that Bitcoin is about to be cracked: it will collapse by 2030 if it doesn't upgrade to resist quantum.

Solana founder warns that the probability of a breakthrough in quantum computing within five years is fifty percent. If the Bitcoin community does not complete the quantum-resistant upgrade before 2030, its security may be compromised. (Background: Elon Musk's serious question: Can quantum computers crack Bitcoin?) (Supplementary background: Developers propose freezing 1 million Bitcoins held by Satoshi Nakamoto, with a three-step approach to tackle the quantum computer crisis.) Fifteen years after the birth of blockchain, the first quantum alarm has officially sounded. Solana co-founder Anatoly Yakovenko stated at the 2025 All-In Summit that the probability of achieving a significant breakthrough in quantum computing within five years is as high as fifty percent, and he urged Bitcoin to complete its quantum migration before 2030. His remarks not only took the audience by surprise but also made the crypto market feel the pressure of the “quantum threat” once again. Yakovenko pointed out that advancements in artificial intelligence and advanced manufacturing processes could allow quantum hardware to surpass current limits in a short time, posing a direct threat to Bitcoin, which relies on ECDSA. “The probability of a quantum computing breakthrough before 2030 is fifty percent.” How can quantum computing break Bitcoin? Quantum computers can utilize Shor's algorithm, created by mathematician Peter Shor in 1994, which can break the perceived security of algorithms in asymmetric cryptography, quickly solving the elliptic curve discrete logarithm problem, thereby deriving private keys from public addresses, forging transaction signatures, and transferring assets. Security researcher David Carvalho has warned that the pace of progress in quantum hardware could be “much faster than expected.” If the speculation proves true, Bitcoin's current defenses will be like an old safe facing a new thief with a universal key, effectively rendered useless. To counter the quantum threat, research focus is shifting towards post-quantum cryptography (PQC). The U.S. National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) has adopted algorithms like CRYSTALS-Dilithium as next-generation standards. The industry is also evaluating hybrid signature solutions to allow both traditional and PQC to coexist, reducing the risks of a one-time switch. The agility of cryptography is thus gaining attention, allowing nodes to quickly change algorithms based on circumstances through modular design. However, PQC signature sizes are generally larger, about 5 to 50 times the current size, indicating that transaction data volume and fees will grow simultaneously, increasing storage and bandwidth burdens on nodes. Finding a balance between security and efficiency has become a new challenge for developers. Timeline and Governance Challenges. Whether the quantum threat is imminent has led to significant divisions within the community. Blockstream CEO Adam Back previously believed that quantum computers are “difficult to implement in practice” at this stage, while Jan3 founder Samson Mow emphasized that before Bitcoin falters, “other systems would fail first.” However, once an upgrade is necessary, Bitcoin will inevitably have to complete it through a hard fork. Past experiences show that hard forks often come with ideological conflicts and risks of chain splits, making governance costs non-negligible. According to Technical Analysis, development teams must first propose a clear path, including testnet validation, comparisons of soft and hard fork plans, and multi-phase transition mechanisms. Otherwise, when quantum computing truly arrives, the community may miss the golden defense window due to disagreements. The race has already begun. Countries like El Salvador have attempted to transfer some national-level Bitcoin reserves to custodial solutions supporting PQC, indicating that proactive measures are becoming a consensus. The industry is also considering incorporating NIST standard algorithms into wallets and signature hardware or using multi-signature to protect high-value addresses in advance. Once PQC algorithms mature, miners, exchanges, and node software must upgrade simultaneously to maintain overall network consistency. From technological innovation to governance decisions, Bitcoin is facing unprecedented pressure tests. Whether the quantum wave will crash ashore in five years remains uncertain, but “preparing for the future” has replaced “unnecessary worries” as the mainstream viewpoint. The warning from the Solana founder acts like a countdown timer, reminding developers, miners, and holders: the quantum threat will not wait for consensus to form; the sooner actions are taken, the lower the cost. In conclusion, for Bitcoin to maintain its status as “digital gold,” it must layout strategies in both technology and governance, creating a security structure that can be upgraded at any time. In the face of the new game brought by quantum computing, the crypto world has no room for retreat, only full-speed advancement. Related reports include MicroStrategy's response to “Bitcoin quantum attack,” where Michael Saylor stated that it is unnecessary worry; if it becomes a reality, Google and Microsoft would fall first. A mathematics professor warns that “quantum attacks are approaching” and that public-key cryptography systems need a comprehensive upgrade, with Vitalik proposing solutions. The dream of saving the country with Bitcoin shattered? El Salvador has hoarded coins for six years, resulting in unexpected outcomes. <Solana founder warns Bitcoin is about to be cracked: If it doesn't upgrade to resist quantum by 2030, it will collapse> was originally published in BlockTempo, the most influential blockchain news media.