XRP technical breakthrough ignites a bullish wave! Macroeconomic favourable information and ETF catalysis may push it up to 5 dollars.

Ripple (XRP) has welcomed a structural bullish reversal after breaking through a long-term triangular formation. With the macroeconomic environment turning accommodative, the probability of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approving the XRP ETF soaring to 95%, and the continued expansion of Ripple's global banking partnership network, market sentiment regarding the long-term investment value of XRP is rapidly heating up. Technical indicators show that if the key support level holds firm, XRP is expected to challenge the $5 mark in the coming months.

Macroeconomic and Fundamental Dual Driving

The Federal Reserve's expectation of a rate cut in September is driving funds away from the US dollar and US bonds, flowing into high-return assets such as gold and cryptocurrencies. For XRP, this means that more capital may flow into the digital asset market.

At the same time, the approval probability of the XRP ETF is close to 95%. JPMorgan predicts that the capital inflow in the first year of listing could reach 4 to 8 billion USD, and some analysts even believe that it could attract 5 billion USD in the first month. The launch of the ETF will not only bring in huge capital but also enhance the legitimacy and visibility of XRP among mainstream investors.

At the application level, RippleNet has established partnerships with several global banks (including Bank of America, Santander, American Express) and provides compliant digital asset custody services for European banks through Ripple Custody. As the cross-border payment market is expected to double to $414 trillion by 2034, the practical application scenarios for XRP will continue to expand.

Technical Analysis: Structural Breakthrough Support Upward

(Source: Trading View)

XRP broke through the long-term triangle vertex in September 2024 and stood above the critical resistance level of 0.66 dollars in November, subsequently reaching a high of 3.40 dollars in January 2025. After a pullback to 1.61 dollars, it rebounded again, setting a new high of 3.66 dollars in July.

Unlike the past few brief surges, this round of momentum shows sustained bullish strength. The weekly chart indicates that $1.97 has become a key support level, and the RSI remains stable above the midpoint, suggesting that buying pressure is still strong.

The daily and 4-hour charts both show a “cup shape pattern,” with the neckline at $2.87. If it breaks through $3.08, the target price is likely to point towards $3.38 or even higher. In the short term, the $2.50–$2.87 range constitutes strong support, and maintaining this area will lay the foundation for a challenge towards $5.

Potential Risks and Market Variables

Despite an optimistic outlook, XRP still faces challenges from regulatory pressures and fluctuations in market sentiment. If the approval of the ETF is delayed or rejected, it could undermine investor confidence; if the Federal Reserve shifts to a tightening policy, the momentum of capital inflow into the crypto market may also weaken.

In addition, although RippleNet collaborates with several banks, the adoption rate of XRP as a settlement asset still needs to be improved. If the actual application progresses slowly, it may limit the long-term upward price potential.

Market speculation and rumors are also one of the risks. For example, the recent rumor circulating in the community about “Apple acquiring XRP” has been confirmed to be baseless, reminding investors to be cautious of the fluctuations caused by unofficial information.

Conclusion

The current trend of XRP is not a short-term speculation, but the result of macro benefits, strengthened fundamentals, and technical breakthroughs working together. As expectations for ETF approvals heat up, the global banking collaboration network expands, and the support level at $1.97 remains solid, the possibility of XRP challenging $5 in the coming months is rapidly increasing. For long-term investors, the current range may be the key timing for positioning.