The Federal Reserve (FED) spokesperson: Don't fantasize about a significant rate cut from the Fed! Restrictive easing is the main theme for Powell.

The Chairman of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, released dovish signals in his speech at Jackson Hole, but a Federal Reserve spokesperson commented that in the face of inflation and a weak labor market, the likelihood of aggressive rate cuts is low. (Background: Powell’s farewell show tonight at 10 PM Jackson Hole speech releases Fed rate cut signals? Beware of drastic fluctuations) (Additional background: Powell’s dovish or hawkish stance at the global central bank annual meeting on August 22? Goldman Sachs predicts three rate cuts this year, optimistic about short-term U.S. Treasury bonds) Jerome Powell delivered an important speech this Friday at the Jackson Hole global central bank annual meeting, and his dovish remarks invigorated the risk market collectively. “Restrained easing”: rate cuts followed by observation. However, Nick Timiraos, a reporter known as the Federal Reserve’s spokesperson at Bloomberg, stated yesterday that Powell’s key term is “Restrained easing.” In other words, interest rates will be lowered but will still remain within the range that curbs inflation, avoiding giving the market a “line-crossing” illusion of easing. In his speech, Powell repeatedly emphasized “caution” and “data dependence,” also indicating that significant rate cuts expected by the public are unlikely to happen unless extreme events occur. Labor market and inflation: two opposing forces. Nick further explained that the current dilemma lies in the “peculiar” combination of economic data. The unemployment rate remains low, but both job vacancies and the number of job seekers have fallen, indicating weakened demand. Powell warned that if demand continues to decline, the deterioration of the labor market could accelerate suddenly. At the same time, tariffs are pushing up import costs, and prices are rising again. Concerns about the wage-price spiral have not been eliminated, and Cleveland Federal Reserve President Mester has reminded that prices “are moving in the wrong direction.” St. Louis Federal Reserve President Bullard also pointed out that companies are testing consumers’ tolerance for high prices. Different voices highlight the difficulty of reaching a consensus and explain why rate cuts must be approached cautiously. Decision-making divergences and external pressures. Federal Reserve Board member Waller publicly supported rate cuts last month, believing that “protecting employment” is a priority; the other two members, Mester and Bullard, are concerned about sticky inflation and advocate for keeping rates unchanged. This internal division makes Powell’s balancing act even more challenging. On Wall Street, some investment banks even advocate for “a one-time cut of 50 basis points” to stabilize the economy, but there are also concerns that excessive easing will reignite inflation. Political struggles cannot be ignored either. President Trump has repeatedly criticized the Federal Reserve for being too slow to react, raising concerns about the independence of monetary policy. American Enterprise Institute economist Michael Strain bluntly stated that Powell’s tone is too “dovish,” risking underestimating the resurgence of inflation, and that being forced to raise rates again in the future would severely damage the Federal Reserve’s credibility, potentially jeopardizing the 2% inflation target. Future path: soft landing or bumpy landing. Powell’s main theme is to strive for a soft landing, rather than a rapid easing like last year. While interest rates are expected to decline, the speed at which mortgage, auto loan, and corporate financing costs fall may not meet investor expectations. The Federal Reserve has not set a clear endpoint and will adjust its pace in future meetings based on inflation, employment, tariff changes, and financial market reactions. In summary, Powell laid out a narrow and winding path for rate cuts at Jackson Hole. If the labor market continues to weaken, the space for rate cuts will open up; if tariffs lead to further price increases, interest rates may revert to a restrictive range. This “restrained easing” is not only related to the outlook for the U.S. economy but also affects whether global capital flows will experience a new wave. Related reports: Rate cuts, DAT, and selling waves, has the crypto bull market peaked or is it still in the middle? Will the market definitely rise after the Fed cuts rates in September? In July, the U.S. PPI exploded, Bitcoin long wick candle reached $117,000, and Trump’s tariffs sounded the inflation alarm, will the Fed still cut rates in September? <The Federal Reserve’s spokesperson: Don’t fantasize about the Fed making significant rate cuts! Restrained easing is Powell’s main theme.> This article was first published in BlockTempo, the most influential blockchain news media.