Yesterday, when the Trump administration suddenly announced the heavy news of imposing a 100% tariff on Chinese goods, the global market's dominoes instantly fell. The stock market opened and entered big dump mode, the consumer confidence index plummeted to its lowest point since May, and risk assets faced an unprecedented wave of sell-offs. This macro storm triggered by trade policies quickly spread to every sensitive corner of the market through a chain of transmission: "rising inflation expectations → tightening market liquidity → surging employment pressure → collapsing consumer confidence → zero risk appetite → funds fleeing high-risk assets." The cryptocurrency market, known for its high volatility, especially welcomed the historic "big dump on October 11."
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Under the impact of macroeconomic negative news, the emotional vulnerability of the encryption market has been infinitely amplified, and an unprecedented big dump storm has suddenly arrived. This day not only broke the volatility records of the 312 and 519 periods but also became a new "dark memorial day" in the crypto circle— the price of Bitcoin once fell below 110,000 USD, setting the largest single-day decline of the year; the stablecoin USDE unexpectedly depegged, dropping to a low of 0.6 USD, triggering a crisis of trust in the stablecoin system; and the altcoin market has become a "slaughterhouse," with hundreds of project prices plummeting to zero in just a few minutes, leaving countless investors' assets vanished in an instant.
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Looking back at the development of the encryption market, it seems that every "darkest hour" hides an opportunity for a rebound. During the big dump on March 12, 2020, Bitcoin fell over 50% in a single day, with a liquidation amount exceeding 20 billion USD across the network, and the market was in despair. But no one expected that 279 days after the big dump, Bitcoin not only regained all its lost ground but also broke previous highs, starting a bull market that lasted a year, reaching a peak of 69,000 USD; during the big dump on May 19, 2021, regulatory negativity combined with market panic caused Bitcoin to drop over 30% in a single day, with altcoins collectively halving, but just 175 days later, Bitcoin set a new historical high, rewarding investors who held on with astonishing returns; even in the face of the "black swan" event of the FTX collapse in November 2022, which triggered a crisis of trust in the industry, after 476 days of adjustment, the encryption market welcomed a new round of growth, with Bitcoin's price returning to above 40,000 USD.
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The "bull-bear cycle" of the encryption market has never disappeared due to short-term big dumps. Each deep pullback may instead become a "buying window" for long-term investors. However, it is important to note that history does not simply repeat itself; the background, impact range, and market structure of each round of big dumps vary. The 312 big dump originated from a liquidity crisis triggered by the global pandemic, followed by central banks injecting funds into the market, which became an important driving force for Bitcoin's rise; the 519 big dump was more due to short-term panic caused by tightening regulatory policies, and the market quickly digested the negative sentiment; whereas this 10.11 big dump stems from the escalation of trade frictions at the macro level, its impact may be more far-reaching — the inflation pressure brought about by increased tariffs, expectations of tightened liquidity, and the risks of a slowing global economic recovery may all prolong the market adjustment cycle.
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