Do you remember a little over a month ago? At that time, I wrote an analysis discussing whether Bitcoin would fall to 96k. Back then, almost everyone in the market believed that October 10th was the lowest point of this round and thought it was unlikely for BTC to break 100,000 dollars again in the short term, with even year-end targets still hovering above 150,000 dollars. Now looking back at those judgments, the gap between market sentiment and actual trends is indeed interesting.

Recently saw a rather magical piece of news. The Attorney General of Missouri, Hannah Wei, suddenly revived a long-dormant case. On November 20, she publicly called for the continuation of a lawsuit that had long been ignored. How exactly will this be done? By requesting the Trump administration and the State Department to formally issue a letter to China, asking them to enforce a federal court judgment—requiring compensation, and with interest. This matter dates back to 2022. That year, Missouri pointed its finger at China under the pretext of the pandemic and filed a lawsuit in federal court. Quite an appetite: 25 billion dollars. Converted to RMB, it's about 170 billion. The judgment even specifically noted that assets could be seized for enforcement if necessary. By March 2025, the local court actually ruled a "victory." But after the ruling? There was no further news. Why? The reasoning is simple: sovereign nations have complete decision-making power over their domestic affairs. A local court in the United States neither has the qualification nor the ability to judge another sovereign nation. Such a ruling is, for the defendant, nothing more than a scrap of paper. Therefore, the Chinese government completely ignored it, and even the U.S. government chose to turn a blind eye. Now the question arises - why did Hanwei choose this particular moment to bring this case, which has long been dead, back to the table? If you think she is really serious about going through legal procedures, you might be overthinking it. This is more like a carefully staged political performance. The timing, actions, and rhetoric all step on sensitive points. As for the calculations behind it, anyone with their eyes open can see: it’s not for the rule of law, but for public opinion and leverage. Such operations are not uncommon in international relations. But to really implement it? The difficulty level is comparable to making Bitcoin drop to zero in one night.

Bitcoin directly experienced a 50% Slump of 15% within a week, with over 1 billion dollars in liquidations across the network, and 180,000 people became suckers - the entire crypto market saw a vaporization of 1.2 trillion dollars in market capitalization over two months. Just when everyone thought the winter was just beginning, the Fed suddenly dropped a "rate cut bomb": restarting the first rate cut of 2025 in September! Even more explosive is the signal revealed by the dot plot—there may be another 50 basis point cut within the year, with the federal funds rate heading straight for 3.5%-3.75%. The question is: inflation is still hovering around 3%, and the core PCE index is stubbornly holding at 3.1%; how can the Fed dare to keep easing at this time? This operation seems very contradictory. On one hand, the economic growth forecast is revised upward to 1.6%, while on the other hand, monetary policy begins to loosen. Is it really providing liquidity to the crypto market, or is there a larger game being played? **First, the conclusion: This round of interest rate cuts is not at all a "market rescue"; essentially, the Fed is being forced to find balance.** Employment data has already started to raise alarms. Although the unemployment rate looks acceptable, new job creation has clearly slowed down, and the labor market is cooling down—if high interest rates are maintained at this time, the risk of an economic downturn may be more deadly than inflation. Looking at the policy context, it becomes clearer: interest rates have already been cut three times in 2024, totaling a reduction of 100 basis points. There has been no movement in the first five months of 2025, and now the easing has resumed, which is essentially following the old path of "stabilizing growth"; it has just been slowed down by inflation. But don't celebrate too early - the Fed has also raised the PCE inflation expectation for 2026 by 0.2 percentage points, to 2.6%. What does this indicate? It indicates that they are also uncertain, and the extent of interest rate cuts will depend on the inflation situation. Therefore, this round of easing is not "flood irrigation", at most it can be considered "precision drip irrigation". **What about the crypto market?** Liquidity will indeed improve marginally, but don't expect an immediate V-shaped reversal.