The four-year cycle of Bitcoin has ended, replaced by a more predictable two-year cycle.Written by: Jeff Park
Compiled by: AididiaoJP, Foresight News
Bitcoin has historically followed a four-year cycle, which can be described as a combination of mining economics and behavioral psychology.
Let us first review the meaning of this cycle: each halving mechanically reduces new supply and tightens miner profit margins, forcing weaker participants out of the market, thereby reducing selling pressure. This subsequently reflexively drives up the marginal cost of new BTC, resulting in a slow but structural tightening of supply. As this process unfolds, fervent investors anchor themselves in the predictable halving narrative, creating a psychological feedback loop. The loop is: early positioning, price increase, viral attention through media, retail FOMO, ultimately leading to leveraged frenzy and ending in a crash. This cycle is effective because it is programmatic supply.
DeepFlowTech·26m ago