On January 16th, the number of daily active addresses on Ethereum reached a record high of 1.297 million, surpassing the active addresses on Layer 2. However, it later dropped back to 945,000. This surge was partly due to the Dencun upgrade reducing transaction fees, but blockchain expert Andrey Sergeenkov pointed out that a significant portion of the growth was caused by "address poisoning" attacks initiated through small stablecoin transactions. Despite this threat, Ethereum's fundamentals remain strong, institutional investors continue to increase their holdings, and Ethereum maintains a dominant position in the real-world asset sector.

1. Market Overview The current ETH market environment is in a wide-range fluctuation phase, with recent volatility significantly intensifying. According to the latest candlestick data, ETH's current price is 2952.38, derived from the closing prices of the most recent hourly and daily K-lines. Over the past 14 days, ETH's high was 3200.50, and the low touched 2866.11, indicating significant resistance at higher levels, with prices having fallen sharply. On the daily chart, large transactions are mainly concentrated during the pullback phase, especially with trading volumes in the past five trading days as follows: 306450, 374133, 176647, 192255, 3276.81, indicating clear buy-sell turnover during recent declines; meanwhile, trading volume in the last two trading days has shrunk dramatically, suggesting increased waiting funds at lower levels and weakened initiative. In the past 48 hours, hourly K-lines show intense volatility, with prices oscillating downward from a high of around 3038.33 at open to a low of 2949.27; during this period, several hours experienced rapid volume expansion, such as in the 2946.73-2988.60 range, with volume reaching 11469.5, reflecting active trading at key support levels. Combining market news and analyst opinions, current market sentiment is cautious, with some investors waiting for key area retracements before re-entering positions. 2. Technical Analysis The maximum high on the daily K-line is 3200.50, and the minimum is 2866.11, indicating a medium-term oscillating downward structure for ETH. In the past 14 trading days, prices have continuously declined from the high, with candlesticks showing long upper and lower shadows, indicating increased market disagreement between bulls and bears. The current bottoming area is roughly around the daily low of 2949.27 to 2921, consistent with analyst feedback on the range. Hourly analysis shows strong support in the 2920-2950 zone, with the recent low at 2949.27, followed by stabilization and rebound near 2950. Corresponding resistance is clearly seen in the 3030-3069 range, with hourly candles at 3038.33 and 3069.07 marking temporary tops. Over the past 48 hours, consecutive hourly volume surges (e.g., in the 2946.73-2988.60 and 2959.79-2963.69 ranges) indicate that whenever prices approach short-term support, substantial buy orders emerge. Regarding volume, trading in the last two days has significantly decreased, with the highest hourly volume only reaching 11469.5, far below previous levels often exceeding tens of thousands. This reflects a short-term market shift into a wait-and-see phase, with both sides temporarily balanced, awaiting new news or technical breakthroughs. 3. News and Policy Interpretation According to the latest information, key news related to ETH mainly focuses on market structure and innovative applications, such as "Railgun launching privacy DeFi layer for Ethereum," "Coinbase launching ETH staking-backed loan features," and developments involving ETF derivatives and large expiry options. However, there have been no major policy changes or new regulatory rules recently. From candlestick patterns, many industry news releases occur within the day, but ETH's price has not experienced significant breakthroughs; instead, it briefly surged but quickly retreated, with the daily price approaching 3000 but failing to stabilize, being suppressed below 2950 by bearish forces. This indicates that positive news has not substantially reversed the short-term bearish trend, and no new policy catalysts have emerged, leaving the market dominated by technical patterns. 4. Analyst Opinions Analyst consensus generally revolves around waiting for retracement to low levels for strategic positioning, with high agreement. The specific excerpts are as follows: - "Waiting for a retracement to 2935-2895 before considering long positions... re-enter around 2935-2895... already gained over 30 points, now just watching the rebound strength." - "#ETH等待回落至2890美元附近，考虑多单入场机会！”- ETH direction: Build positions around 2940, stop-loss near 2910, take profit at 2970-3000-3030, flexible entry, no need to chase the exact point. Choose one of the two." Compared with actual candlestick movements, ETH has repeatedly found support in the 2940-2950 range, with multiple tests showing rebounds, indicating that the analyst's predictions are closely aligned with market reality. Although the current price has not sharply rebounded to the first target of 2970, the short-term trend has gradually entered the suggested bullish zone, with initial signs of rebound. The risk of hitting the stop-loss at 2910 has not yet materialized. 5. Future Trend Prediction and Trading Suggestions Based on the candlestick structures over the past 14 days and 48 hours, ETH is likely to fluctuate within the 2920-3030 range in the short term. The main support zones are concentrated around 2920-2950, with strong resistance in the 2970-3030 zone. Maintaining above 2940 could make 3200 a potential medium-term rebound target, but breaking below 2910 would trigger a new decline toward 2866-2890. Aggressive investors may consider scaling into long positions between 2950-2935, with stops below 2910, and take profits at 2970, 3000, and 3030. Conservative investors are advised to continue observing, waiting for a retracement to 2895-2920 before entering gradually; if prices fail to break above 3030, consider reducing positions on rallies to strengthen risk control. 6. Risk Warning ETH's volatility is intensifying, with short-term volume shrinking and market sentiment becoming more cautious. If prices continue to fall below 2940-2920, panic selling could be triggered, leading to rapid declines toward 2890 or even 2866. Additionally, there are no new policy supports in the short term, and negative impacts could amplify downward risks. Investors should closely monitor the support line at 2910-2920; if broken, strict stop-loss measures are essential. Overall, trading should be flexible, with diversified risk management, to guard against shocks from "extreme market conditions." In summary, ETH is currently in a critical consolidation zone, with clear technical support, and the key level dividing bulls and bears is around 2920. Strict adherence to actual candlestick data and analyst-defined ranges is crucial for short-term participation.