#加密市场小幅回暖 The Christmas market is approaching, and the price target for Bitcoin in December has become the focus. Bitcoin has been fluctuating in the range of $84,000 to $94,000 for a month, and the current price is hovering around $90,000.
Bullish analysts like AlphaBTC and Captain Faibik are anticipating a "Santa Claus rally," believing that the correction is complete and the price may soon break through and surge towards the $98,000 to $100,000 range.
Korinek_Trades is based on the Elliott Wave Theory, predicting that the price is likely to reach a new high of $150,000. Ignas pointed out that the large options expiration on December 26 may push the price towards $96,000.
However, the bearish voices cannot be ignored either. Maksim Balashevich, the founder of Santiment, believes that the market has not yet shown enough "panic" sentiment to confirm a bottom through social media sentiment analysis, and that Bitcoin still has the potential to drop to $75,000. CryptoQuant analyst CryptoOnchain warns that due to a $1.4 billion BTC inflow on the bn exchange, prices may pull back to the demand zone of $70,000 to $72,000. Analysts such as Killa and Doctor Profit predict that the market may experience several months of volatility before entering the next round of deep declines in the first quarter of 2026, targeting $60,000.
Fidelity's Jurrien Timmer believes that the four-year cycle has not ended, and the bear market may last until 2026, with support levels between $65,000 and $75,000.
According to on-chain data, analyst Murphy pointed out that the range of $80,000 to $90,000 has accumulated a large amount of chips, while the range of $70,000 to $80,000 is a liquidity vacuum, which may become strong support.
The festive atmosphere always brings some special "magic". Will the Santa Claus Rally arrive on time as many people expect?
The "Santa Rally" in the crypto market originates from the year-end effect in the traditional stock market: holiday optimism + institutional window dressing + thin liquidity allowing small funds to push prices higher. However, Bitcoin and crypto assets are more volatile, with performance highly dependent on larger cycles (bull and bear markets).
Based on historical data from the past 10-11 years, Bitcoin has an average increase of about 8.25% in December, while the total crypto market cap averages +13.16%. Years with positive returns dominate, but not every year sees an increase. Over the past 11 years, during the week before Christmas (December 19-25), Bitcoin has risen 8 times, with the largest increase being 13.19% in 2016. In the week after Christmas, it has risen 6-9 times, but the overall market is stronger (82% positive returns).
In a bull market, the probability of a Christmas rally is high and the amplitude is large; during a bear market or adjustment period, it is prone to horizontal movement or even slight declines. The average amplitude of the Christmas rally is only 1-2%, far less than the potential of 9% for the entire month of December. Thin liquidity is a double-edged sword – it can lead to explosive growth, but also to sudden crashes.
The crypto space during Christmas is often an emotional magnifying glass: when optimistic, everyone shouts bull, and when fearful, everyone shouts bottom. But history tells us that price surges are not holiday gifts, but a continuation of larger trends. This year, it seems Santa may be late or only bring small gifts—focus on rationality and don't go all in chasing the rise.
Do you think Christmas this year will be quiet or will there be a surprising rebound? Let's chat in the comments about your positions and predictions! Happy holidays, good risk management is the greatest gift.
Bullish analysts like AlphaBTC and Captain Faibik are anticipating a "Santa Claus rally," believing that the correction is complete and the price may soon break through and surge towards the $98,000 to $100,000 range.
Korinek_Trades is based on the Elliott Wave Theory, predicting that the price is likely to reach a new high of $150,000. Ignas pointed out that the large options expiration on December 26 may push the price towards $96,000.
However, the bearish voices cannot be ignored either. Maksim Balashevich, the founder of Santiment, believes that the market has not yet shown enough "panic" sentiment to confirm a bottom through social media sentiment analysis, and that Bitcoin still has the potential to drop to $75,000. CryptoQuant analyst CryptoOnchain warns that due to a $1.4 billion BTC inflow on the bn exchange, prices may pull back to the demand zone of $70,000 to $72,000. Analysts such as Killa and Doctor Profit predict that the market may experience several months of volatility before entering the next round of deep declines in the first quarter of 2026, targeting $60,000.
Fidelity's Jurrien Timmer believes that the four-year cycle has not ended, and the bear market may last until 2026, with support levels between $65,000 and $75,000.
According to on-chain data, analyst Murphy pointed out that the range of $80,000 to $90,000 has accumulated a large amount of chips, while the range of $70,000 to $80,000 is a liquidity vacuum, which may become strong support.
The festive atmosphere always brings some special "magic". Will the Santa Claus Rally arrive on time as many people expect?
The "Santa Rally" in the crypto market originates from the year-end effect in the traditional stock market: holiday optimism + institutional window dressing + thin liquidity allowing small funds to push prices higher. However, Bitcoin and crypto assets are more volatile, with performance highly dependent on larger cycles (bull and bear markets).
Based on historical data from the past 10-11 years, Bitcoin has an average increase of about 8.25% in December, while the total crypto market cap averages +13.16%. Years with positive returns dominate, but not every year sees an increase. Over the past 11 years, during the week before Christmas (December 19-25), Bitcoin has risen 8 times, with the largest increase being 13.19% in 2016. In the week after Christmas, it has risen 6-9 times, but the overall market is stronger (82% positive returns).
In a bull market, the probability of a Christmas rally is high and the amplitude is large; during a bear market or adjustment period, it is prone to horizontal movement or even slight declines. The average amplitude of the Christmas rally is only 1-2%, far less than the potential of 9% for the entire month of December. Thin liquidity is a double-edged sword – it can lead to explosive growth, but also to sudden crashes.
The crypto space during Christmas is often an emotional magnifying glass: when optimistic, everyone shouts bull, and when fearful, everyone shouts bottom. But history tells us that price surges are not holiday gifts, but a continuation of larger trends. This year, it seems Santa may be late or only bring small gifts—focus on rationality and don't go all in chasing the rise.
Do you think Christmas this year will be quiet or will there be a surprising rebound? Let's chat in the comments about your positions and predictions! Happy holidays, good risk management is the greatest gift.
