ETH October 17 Market Analysis
1. Trend Analysis
· Clear bearish pattern: Price is below all short to medium-term EMAs (EMA5, EMA10, EMA20, EMA72)
· Unique Support: Only EMA180(3,618.17) still provides long-term support.
· Bearish moving average alignment: EMA5 < EMA10 < EMA20 < EMA72, presenting a standard bearish trend.
· Significant decline from a high: dropped from a peak of 4,765 to the current price level, a decrease of over 17%
2. Price Position Analysis
· Key support test: After gaining initial support at 3,823.50 (24-hour low), the price slightly rebounds.
· Strong resistance: The dense EMA moving averages above create layers of resistance.
· At a decision point: the current price is seeking direction between short-term support and medium-term resistance.
3. Volume Analysis
· Limited reference for trading volume: MA5 and MA10 data may have issues, but overall it shows that market participation is average.
4. Price Structure Analysis
· Resistance levels:
· Strong Resistance 1: 3,998.82 (EMA5)
· Strong Resistance 2: 4,074.17 (EMA10)
· Strong Resistance 3: 4,122.43 (EMA72)
· Support Levels:
· Key support: 3,823.50 (24-hour low)
· Strong support: 3,618.17 (EMA180)
Trend prediction
Most likely scenario (55% probability): continue to fluctuate downwards.
1. Reason: Bearish moving average alignment + Weak rebound + Technical aspects leaning bearish
2. Downward Target:
· First target: 3,823.50 (testing previous low)
· Second target: 3,718-3,650 range
· Key Target: 3,618.17 (EMA180)
Possible scenario (30% probability): Technical rebound
1. Condition: A buying momentum appears based on the effective support of 3,823.
2. Rebound target: 3,998-4,074 range (EMA5-EMA10 resistance zone)
3. Nature judgment: If it cannot break through 4,074, it is still a downward continuation.
Low probability scenario (15% probability): Strong reversal
1. Condition: Breakthrough 4,122 with increased volume and hold steady.
2. Feature: Major positive developments emerge
3. Extremely low probability: Current technical indicators do not support a strong reversal.
Trading Suggestions
For long holders:
· It is recommended to reduce positions on rebounds: consider reducing positions in the range of 3,950-4,000.
· Strict stop loss: set below 3,820
· If it falls below 3,823, you should immediately exit and observe.
For short-sellers/wait-and-see investors:
· You can short with a light position at 3,920-3,950, with a stop loss above 4,000.
· Target levels: 3,830, 3,720, 3,650
· Wait for a callback to the 3,650-3,620 support area before considering long positions.
Risk Control Focus:
· Key Observation Points:
· Is 3,823 support effective?
· 3,998 resistance strength
· Change in trading volume
· Short Stop Loss: Break through 4,020
· Long position entry point: 3,650-3,620 (near EMA180)
Risk Warning
1. The technical outlook is broadly bearish, and a strong performance in the short term is unlikely.
2. The EMA180 support at 3,618 is the last line of defense and needs to be closely monitored.
3. The overall market sentiment is weak, affecting the independent movement of ETH.
4. It is recommended to operate with a light position, strictly set stop losses, and control risks.
Summary: ETH is currently in a clear bearish trend, with multiple technical indicators supporting further decline. In the short term, it may oscillate in the range of 3,823-3,998 before choosing a direction, with a higher probability of moving downward. The operation should mainly focus on shorting at highs, with strict risk control, patiently waiting for better long entry opportunities.