Emilyvuong

📍The Ethereum Foundation just staked an additional $46.64M ETH
📌 The total ETH staked by EF is $96.59M. EF or Vitalik selling is often a sign of a local top. Does this move indicate a mid-term bottom for #ETH?

📍The US Congress Approaches a DHS Budget Deal (Department of Homeland Security), Paving the Way to End the Record Shutdown
📌The Senate has sent back most of the DHS funding bill to the House, excluding ICE and part of CBP as requested by the Democrats (to be handled with a separate package).

After announcing that he was close to a deal, Trump backtracked and declared: "We will attack Iran very hard" in the next two weeks.
The financial community is beginning to miss Biden, who only speaks to the media a few times a month.

📍The PBOC continues to inject liquidity
- 7-day reverse repo: 269.5 billion CNY, interest rate remains at 1.4%
- Maturity: 8 billion CNY -> net injection of 261.5 billion CNY
The PBOC still maintains a slight easing stance

📍USA - Iran shows signs of negotiation but nothing is certain yet
📌 Axios: The US and Iran are discussing the possibility of a ceasefire, in exchange for Iran opening the Strait of Hormuz. It is unclear whether the negotiations are direct or mediated -> the likelihood of an agreement remains uncertain
📌 Trump announced that Iran has proposed a ceasefire, on the condition that they open the Hormuz Strait. Iran completely denies this -> stating that what Trump said “is not true”
📍 Meanwhile, on the ground, the situation is heading in the opposite direction:
- Iran declares it will co

JOLTS for February: 6.882M (lower than the forecast of 6.890M), but January's revised data increased sharply to 7.240M (+300K) 📍The notable point lies in the structure:
📌 Specifically, in February, there were 689K unemployed people—more than the number of open jobs. The openings/unemployed ratio: 1.0x → 0.9x
-> The market has returned to a slight oversupply of labor, ending the post-COVID shortage phase, and wage pressure is beginning to ease.
📍Recruitment - layoffs data:
- Hires: 4.8M (-498K MoM)
- Quits: 2.97M (-157K MoM)
-> Public sector job openings continue to decline. Both hiring and

The United States bombed the desalination plant on Qeshm Island in Hormuz — a major desalination plant supplying water in southern Iran.

📍The risk of Americans defaulting on their debts is at an all-time high
Credit card delinquency has risen to approximately 12-13%—near the peak levels after the 2008 crisis. Student loans have returned, from nearly 0% during 2021–2023 (thanks to student debt forgiveness policies), surging back to around 10% in just over a year.
Mortgage rates remain around ~1%, but they are also at the highest since post-COVID 2022. The largest debt in the financial system has not yet broken, as most borrowers are still locked into low interest rates of 2-3%.
-> Thanks to mortgages, the credit system has been

📍China officially launches 2 trade investigations against the US
📌Beijing will consider US measures believed to disrupt the global supply chain—especially in the fields of technology, semiconductors, and logistics. At the same time, China targets trade barriers against their green products, including electric vehicles, batteries, and renewable energy.
📌This move comes amid escalating trade tensions, as the US tightens control over technology and raises tariffs on Chinese goods. The administration is looking to test Trump's reaction ahead of the upcoming meeting.

Trump says he will stop attacking Iran's energy facilities for the next 10 days to negotiate.

📌 Mortgage 30Y rises to 6.43% ( from 6.30% ), returning to the highest level in 8 months. Clearly, this increases pressure on homebuyers as monthly payments rise by hundreds to thousands of USD -> enough to disqualify many from qualifying for a loan.
📌 Total mortgage applications -10.5% W/W, indicating many people are unable to afford homes at the new interest rates.
📌 Refinance -14.6% WoW -> those with existing loans have less reason to refinance since there is no cash flow freed up from lower interest rates. American consumer spending will definitely be affected.
📌 Mortgage is always an

📍US puts forth negotiation demands: US 15 points - Iran 5 points
🔸15 US demands:
1. Automatic cancellation of risk of reimposing sanctions
2. Dismantling Iran's existing nuclear capacity
3. Iran commits to "never" pursuing nuclear weapons
4. Prevent all uranium enrichment activities on Iranian territory
5. Transfer enriched uranium to IAEA
6. Cease operations and destroy Natanz, Isfahan, and Fordow facilities
7. Allow IAEA access to all information
8. Iran abandons "proxy" (proxies) strategy
9. Stop funding and arming militia forces in the region
10. Ensure Strait of Hormuz remains open, not

📍 Iran allows all vessels passing through Hormuz except the United States and Israel.
All merchant vessels are permitted to pass through (except the United States and Israel) but will be charged a transit fee, potentially up to $2M per voyage and payable in Chinese yuan.
This move helps Iran avoid causing a global supply shock, and is clearly backed by both China and BRICS with the aim of pricing oil in Chinese yuan (instead of USD). This is a temporary solution. It seems the US will not accept this for long. Perhaps Trump will soon post something on Truth Social about this.

📍Bitcoin ETF saw inflows of approximately $2.5B in March this month, nearly erasing the negative capital flows since the beginning of the year (YTD)
Capital inflows into Bitcoin ETFs are making a strong comeback even as the price $BTC hasn't increased much from the bottom. Total inflows in March have reached around $2.5B, and just one more good session would be enough to erase the negative capital flows from the start of the year.
📌 Key highlights lie in $IBIT ETF:
- Has far surpassed the YTD negative level, returning to positive territory
- Ranked in top ~2% of ETFs with the strongest capit

📍 Japan Considers Intervening in Oil Derivatives Market Amid Strong Brent Price Surge
Japan's Ministry of Finance is reportedly approaching major banks in Tokyo engaged in oil trading activities to gather insights on market developments. This move comes as Brent prices are placing significant pressure on Japan's energy import costs.
Japan is an energy import-dependent economy, so each oil price increase directly impacts inflation and exchange rates. The fact that the Ministry of Finance is actively engaging with banks demonstrates mounting pressure, though specific intervention tools remain u

The State Bank of Vietnam continues to sell forward contracts to maintain the exchange rate. It is unclear how much will be sold this time, as Q1 has not yet ended.

📍Major US oil refinery explosion -> gasoline and diesel supply tightens further
📌 Valero refinery in Port Arthur (Texas) experiences major explosion. Capacity reaches ~435,000 barrels/day - part of the largest refinery group in the US.
📌 The incident involves the diesel processing area, will certainly directly impact gasoline and diesel supply in the market
This incident will cause gasoline and diesel prices to rise faster than crude oil prices even when crude oil prices decline.