#WarshLeadsFedChairRace
📰 Who Will Be the New Leader of the Fed?
The leadership race for the Federal Reserve, one of the most critical institutions of the global economy, has created a new wave of uncertainty in the markets as of 2026. Kevin Warsh, nominated by US President Donald Trump, is leading the race with increasing support, and this process is seen not only as an appointment but also as a critical turning point for the future of monetary policy.
According to recent developments, Warsh's nomination is no longer just a possibility, but is considered a harbinger of a serious policy change. The Senate Banking Committee's scheduling of a hearing for the nomination in mid-April shows that the process is accelerating. However, political resistance and institutional discussions reveal that the process is not yet finalized.
Warsh's rise is driven not only by political support but also by market expectations. Especially in Wall Street circles, there is talk that Warsh may pursue a more "hawkish" policy and take steps to shrink the Fed's balance sheet.
The macroeconomic picture is also quite complex during this process. As tensions in the Middle East push oil prices higher, energy-related inflationary pressures are rising again. This makes it more difficult for the Fed to cut interest rates, and in some scenarios, even raises the possibility of an interest rate hike.
On the other hand, while current Fed Chairman Jerome Powell states that energy shocks may be temporary, he also points to the risk of inflationary expectations becoming permanent. This indicates that the new chairman will face a very challenging macroeconomic environment when he takes office.
Another critical debate surrounding Warsh's nomination is the issue of the Fed's independence. The Trump administration's expectation of more aggressive interest rate cuts and its tendency to loosen regulations are increasing concerns that the central bank may be under political pressure.
This process, shaped under the hashtag #WarshLeadsFedChairRace, represents much more than just a name contest. This race will also be decisive for the direction of US monetary policy, global liquidity conditions, and the future of risky assets.
If Kevin Warsh takes office, markets may see scenarios of tighter monetary policy, balance sheet reduction, and a more aggressive fight against inflation. However, this approach also carries the risk of putting pressure on growth.
In conclusion, the race for the Fed chairmanship has become a major topic not only in Washington but also in global financial markets. The decision to be made in the coming weeks could be a critical turning point, determining the direction of not only the US economy but also all risky assets, including cryptocurrency, commodity, and equity markets.

#MarketsRepriceFedRateHikes
Markets Re-price Fed Interest Rate Expectations: Hopes for Cuts Postponed, Risk of Increases on the Table
The US Federal Reserve's (Fed) cautious stance and the inflation risk triggered by tariffs are sharply changing expectations regarding the interest rate path in the markets. Investors who in recent weeks were pricing in an "aggressive rate cut in 2025" scenario are now considering both a postponement of cuts and, with a limited probability, a rate hike.
Fed's Latest Message: Wait-and-See, No Hasty Cuts
The Fed kept its policy rate stable at 4.25–4.50%, maintaining its June projections of a half-point rate cut by the end of 2025. However, Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized that "no one is bound to this path with great confidence" and stated that the Trump administration's import tariffs would lead to "a significant increase in inflation in the coming months."
The Fed's projections foresee growth slowing to 1.4% in 2025, unemployment rising to 4.5%, and inflation remaining at 3% by the end of the year—a scenario described as "moderate stagflation." Disagreements within the committee are also evident: 7 of the 19 members believe no rate cuts will be needed in 2025.
Market Reaction: Rate Cuts Delayed, Rate Hike Pricing Begins
A majority of economists surveyed by Reuters expect the Fed to keep rates steady at least until September; 59 of 105 economists predict the first cut will come in September, while a minority of 42% believe the cut will be delayed until the fourth quarter or later.
More noteworthy is the change in derivatives markets: with Brent oil rising to $97 and WTI to $95, investors have begun pricing in a 25% probability of a Fed rate hike in 2026. Concerns that rising energy costs will accelerate inflationary pass-through are weakening the “tariff cycle” narrative.
Asset Prices Seek Direction
Market reaction to recent Fed decisions has been cautious:
S&P 500 tested a record high and retreated, Nasdaq rose 0.3%, Dow remained flat
US 10-year Treasury yield fell to 4.2791%
Dollar index rose 0.35% after the decision
According to Morgan Stanley data, the S&P 500 provides an average monthly yield of 1.7% during periods when the Fed cuts interest rates—but this support is weakening with the postponement of cuts.
Analysis: Fed Faces Two-Way Risk
As Powell put it, “if there were no tariffs, cuts could already be on the agenda.” However, the pass-through of the cost shock from producer to consumer is not yet complete, and the Fed wants to “wait a few months and see the data.”
This is a clear message for the markets: Rate cuts are on the table, but not automatic. If tariffs keep inflation above its 2% target, the risk increases that the Fed will either slow down its rate cuts in 2026 (only 25 bp per year in 2026-2027) or move towards rate hikes.
The critical threshold for investors will be oil prices surpassing $100 and core PCE remaining above 3%. Until then, "wait-and-see" pricing will continue to keep volatility high across asset classes.