ShizukaKazu

#原油小幅上涨 Gold, crude oil, and the battle between bulls and bears are intensifying. What’s next for the market?
Important reminder: this Thursday, U.S. GDP data and PCE inflation data; on Friday, U.S. CPI and PPI data. While these key indicators are closely watched, even more important is the situation in Iran. Currently, aside from Trump, all parties are drawing K-line charts! As retail investors, our access to information is limited.
Yesterday, gold opened higher in the morning and rose, reaching a high of around 4857/4858 before facing resistance and pulling back. In the short term, it declined to around 4788 and then rebounded. During midday, gold rebounded to around 4844 but faced resistance again, then shifted to a sideways downward trend. The decline continued during European and U.S. trading hours, with the lowest point near 4700 in the early morning, and the daily chart ultimately closed with a long upper shadow on the bearish candle.
Overall, gold showed a rally and pullback pattern on Wednesday, closing lower on the daily chart, unable to sustain the strong upward momentum seen in the morning. From the moving average system, the market shows mixed signals: the 5-day moving average is beginning to turn downward, the 10-day remains upward, while the 20-day and 30-day moving averages continue to slope downward. This technical pattern generally indicates that the short-term trend may continue to fluctuate without forming a clear directional trend.
For today’s strategy, excluding market news impacts, if prices want to move lower, there may be some rebounds to confirm resistance levels above. The short-term range is defined by the high and low points of 4700-4735 formed at the close. A dip back to the 4700 support level during the morning is a good opportunity for a short-term long position. Currently, after a significant pullback and stabilization, the main focus remains on buying, with attention to short-term resistance at 4800-4850.
Crude oil yesterday was initially affected by the temporary ceasefire news between the U.S. and Iran, causing a sharp decline to around 91, followed by some consolidation. However, during U.S. trading hours, developments in U.S.-Iran tensions, Israel attacking Lebanon, and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz led to a rebound, pushing prices above 97. Yet, the daily chart still shows a large bearish candle. After today’s open, crude oil continued to rebound, testing resistance near the 20-day moving average at around 98.4. This was also the main resistance level expected for yesterday’s rebound. Since the 20-day moving average has not been broken, it indicates that despite the news risks, the temporary ceasefire is still exerting short-term downward pressure on oil prices.
Today, focus remains on the strong support at 90. A rebound is still expected before any break below. A break below could gradually test levels around 87-85. On the upside, the first resistance is at 98-100. Although crude oil prices fluctuate significantly, key support and resistance levels remain very important references. Participate at key levels, and trade less but more carefully!
This article is only a personal interpretation of potential future market trends. It is not investment advice and should be used for reference only! Investing involves risks; please trade cautiously. Be flexible in response to market conditions, pay attention to proper position sizing, fund management, and risk control. No risk management, no trading; don’t let trading get out of control!

#Gate广场四月发帖挑战 Don't be led by the news; the profit logic in geopolitical black swan events
These past couple of days, the market has given all traders a vivid practical lesson, perfectly confirming that "news sentiment ≠ trading direction."
When faced with sudden geopolitical news, how should we trade rationally instead of being driven by emotions?
Last night, Trump issued a strong, aggressive statement, signaling tough pressure on Iran and even mentioning extreme military actions. Once the news broke, global risk-off sentiment skyrocketed. The crypto market plummeted, with ETH dropping sharply to a low of 2058. The entire network was bearish, with countless traders panicking and cutting losses, convinced that the market would continue to crash, even betting on a unilateral decline driven by escalating geopolitical conflict.
But market reversals often happen faster than the spread of news.
In just one night, the situation reversed: Iran and the other side announced a ceasefire and began peace negotiations. The previous tension eased instantly. Risk-off sentiment quickly subsided, funds flowed back into the crypto market, and ETH launched a violent rebound, surging to 2273. In just over ten hours, it staged a strong reversal of more than 200 points.
Many traders probably experienced this firsthand: those who panicked and sold near 2058 are now watching the rally and kicking themselves; while those who maintained their discipline and didn't let panic control them seized this opportunity for a significant rebound.
In fact, in trading markets—especially in highly volatile markets like cryptocurrencies—geopolitical conflicts, policy news, and celebrity statements are always part of the norm. But most novice traders fall into a deadly trap: treating news as the sole basis for trading. They blindly short when the news is negative, blindly buy when positive, completely ignoring market sentiment cycles and expectations gaps.
Based on ETH’s recent行情, we can summarize two core trading points:
1. When news is confirmed, it often signals a market reversal
Trading is about expectation gaps, not the news itself. Last night’s strong statement was the market’s way of digesting the anticipated negative impact of "conflict escalation." When panic reaches its peak and selling exhausts itself, the market bottoms out; then, the news of ceasefire and negotiations signals that the negative sentiment has been fully priced in, funds start to re-enter, and the market rebounds accordingly.
Always remember: when good news is exhausted, it becomes bad news; when bad news is exhausted, it becomes good news. When everyone is spreading the same extreme message and trading in the same direction, it’s a sign that a reversal is imminent. At this point, following the herd is the most dangerous move.
2. Reject emotional trading; stick to your trading rhythm
The top priority in trading is controlling your mindset. This principle was vividly demonstrated in this recent rally. During panic, you see only reasons for decline; during greed, only reasons for rise. Emotion-driven trading will ultimately turn you into market cannon fodder.
Whether it’s ETH’s rebound from 2058 to 2273 or other asset fluctuations, truly consistent profitable traders never let sudden news disrupt their rhythm. They plan their take-profit and stop-loss in advance, identify key support and resistance levels, and avoid blindly changing positions or cutting losses based on momentary news swings. They only trade what they understand and within their knowledge scope, earning within their cognitive limits.
This recent market movement is undoubtedly a wake-up call for all traders: the market is always right; the mistake lies in our emotionally driven trading behaviors. News is just a catalyst, not the sole determinant of market direction. Instead of chasing news, it’s more important to understand market sentiment, grasp capital flows, and maintain your trading system.