ShizukaKazu

#Gate广场四月发帖挑战 The ongoing conflict in the Persian Gulf is triggering a global financial storm—keep enough cash on hand and wait for the bottom-fishing opportunity.
【Market Overview】
The conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran remains tense, with Brent crude oil rising above $111. Meanwhile, the US dollar index has broken through 100 points, and various financial assets are experiencing increased volatility. Market rumors suggest that old Trump has been hospitalized or even "gone," and the international financial markets are anxious as they wait.
【Gold and Silver Performance Remains Stable】Currently, gold and silver are still above major support levels, so overall, there is little cause for concern. From the monthly chart, gold and silver have experienced a significant correction after months of sharp gains. Although this is largely driven by the US Treasury Department and the aggressive suppression by the five major Jewish Wall Street firms, the technical patterns have not deteriorated. If there is another sharp decline, it could be a good opportunity to buy the dip.
【The Biggest Risk Point: Yen Collapse】It must be emphasized again: Will the Persian Gulf War trigger a collapse of the yen and Japanese government bonds, and then ignite a global financial storm involving the US dollar, US bonds, and US stocks that has been brewing for over a decade? This is a black swan event we must guard against.
【Main Trading Strategy: Keep Enough Cash】Therefore, the current main strategy is very clear: reduce positions on rallies, keep 30%–50% of cash, and wait for the bottom-fishing opportunities brought by this global financial storm. Don’t focus too much on short-term gains or losses; risk prevention is the top priority.
【Gold and Silver Rhythm】Gold and silver are attractive, but the capital invested in them has been highly profitable over the past two years, and liquidity is excellent. During the initial phase of a financial crisis, they will likely face a fierce sell-off (capital cash-out to preserve life), potentially dropping 30%–40%. Afterwards, a V-shaped reversal may occur, and with global chaos, new highs could be reached.
Conclusion: Be cautious in the short term, keep enough cash; be optimistic in the long term, with no upper limit.
【Other Assets】International crude oil is likely to continue rising and can be accumulated on dips. The RMB’s slight steady appreciation trend remains unchanged, and the collapse of the yen is only a matter of time. Bitcoin is also unlikely to escape this impact. The US Coffee Index is currently at 295, rebounding after four consecutive months of decline, but the medium- and long-term trend remains unclear.
【Ultimate Risk: Global Hyperinflation】Some financial experts warn that after the Persian Gulf War causes oil prices to surge, global inflation will spiral out of control. In the second half of this year and into the end of the year, food prices may skyrocket, and next year, the world could face hyperinflation. If it comes to this, physical gold and silver will be the best investments.
The above views are personal analyses and do not constitute any investment advice.

#Gate广场四月发帖挑战 April 7 Geopolitics, Commodities, and Precious Metals Summary
1. First, let's look at crude oil. Yesterday, crude oil continued to "slightly rise," with WTI crude reaching 113.37. However, I want to remind everyone to pay attention to the fact that the spot premium (backwardation, discount structure) for crude oil has reached an extreme level, which usually indicates that at least a short-term top has appeared.
How to understand this? When the near-month price ÷ the far-month price is normal: approximately 1.0
Currently approximately 1.4–1.5 (extreme level). Historically, the "red line" is around 1.2. Once it breaks through and rises significantly, it often corresponds to a top in oil prices, and the current level has already clearly exceeded historical thresholds.
In other words, from a technical perspective, the short-term top in oil prices may have already appeared.
Let's look at another data point: WTI's RSI has already reached 80. I want to remind everyone that: the market essentially is not afraid of high oil prices, nor of low oil prices. But the market is only afraid of one thing: the unpredictability of oil prices.
Looking back to 2007, a clear pattern emerges: over the past 18 years, there have been 5 instances where the oil RSI entered overbought territory (>70), and after each, the S&P 500 quickly experienced a correction:
2008 → down 57%
2011 → down 20%
2014 → initially rose slightly, then fell 14%, and remained sideways for a long time
2018 → down 20%, followed by further decline in 2020
2022 → down 26%
Currently, crude oil prices are fluctuating rapidly between $98 and $113, with daily swings reaching up to 10%, and such volatility is a source of systemic uncertainty.
✔ Therefore, whether Iran's situation has ended is not the key point. The market's recovery condition is: oil prices stop fluctuating wildly and re-enter a stable range. This is crucial. It is also an important data point we need to continuously monitor in the future.
2. Last night, the US markets showed clear risk-averse sentiment: all three major US stock indices rose, but the best-performing sectors were Consumer Services (1.47%), Textiles & Apparel (+1.41%), Defense & Military (+1.39%), and Durable Goods Consumption (1.31%). These are typical "defensive sectors." Meanwhile, the US dollar index fell into the 99 range, and US Treasury yields rose slightly to 4.337%. Tonight at 8 PM (which has been shifted to midnight Eastern Time by Trump), is "Power Plant and Bridge Day," and also the day when Trump's final ultimatum is expected to take effect. The mild market asset movements indicate that market expectations for Trump's "TACO" are higher.
✔ I want to remind everyone that things are unlikely to go so "smoothly." While writing this supplement, I just saw media reports about Iran's "10-point plan" in response to the US's "Fifteen-Point Peace Plan."
Iran's 10-point plan includes:
1. Guarantee that Iran will no longer be attacked.
2. Permanently end the war, not just a ceasefire.
3. Israel stops airstrikes on Lebanon.
4. Lift all US sanctions on Iran.
5. Cease all regional conflicts targeting Iran's allies.
6. As part of the exchange, Iran will open the Strait of Hormuz.
7. Iran will impose a $2 million toll for each ship passing through the Strait of Hormuz.
8. Iran will split these fees with Oman.
9. Iran will establish safety regulations for passage through the Strait of Hormuz.
10. Iran will use the construction costs of the Strait of Hormuz for reconstruction, not for compensation. This essentially means the US and Israel would have to recognize Iran as a "victorious country." Within 24 hours, it is highly unlikely that both sides will reach a reconciliation agreement or even form some kind of "consensus." Therefore, the most intense conflict could erupt within the next 24 hours. All asset prices may face a severe "shock." In other words, today, regardless of what assets you trade, you must remain cautious. Avoid making big bets before major events; this is a fundamental principle.

#Gate广场四月发帖挑战 Market Analysis and Outlook for This Week: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Gold, Silver
Recap of the Past Week: The market was both interesting and boring. Trump seems to have a script, almost daily posting to help the market draw lines:
March 30: Trump says an agreement is imminent, Bitcoin surges $3,000 in one day.
Same day: He mentions Iran’s new power plant will be destroyed, Bitcoin drops $2,000.
March 31: Trump says the war is nearing an end, Bitcoin rises another $2,000.
April 1: Trump states US-Iran negotiations are ongoing, Bitcoin increases $1,500.
April 3: Trump says Iran war will continue for 2 to 3 weeks, Bitcoin drops another $2,500.
April 6: Trump mentions US-Iran will discuss a 45-day ceasefire, Bitcoin rises another $2,200. Based on this pattern, the crypto market roughly shows this trend...
According to Reuters, as the Tuesday evening 8 PM deadline approaches, regional mediators have proposed a two-phase implementation plan. This is the fifth time the deadline has been extended within 17 days:
• March 21: 48-hour deadline
• March 23: 5-day extension
• March 26: 10-day extension
• April 4: 48-hour deadline
• April 5: extended to April 7
Notice a pattern? Each time the deadline approaches, Trump announces extensions to soothe the market. Once the market recovers, he again states no negotiations are happening, and attacks will continue. Will an agreement finally be reached this time? Or will Trump play games and break his word again?
Today, Monday, the overall market rallied due to heightened hopes for a US-Iran ceasefire, ignoring Trump’s series of crude threats against Iran. Trump announced he plans a press conference at 1 PM Eastern, mentioning Tuesday night 8 PM, but no further details were provided.
Meanwhile, Iran continues to fight for itself. The Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed, restricting global oil supplies and pushing up crude prices. Due to local storage nearing capacity, Persian Gulf oil producers have been forced to cut output by about 6%. The Strait of Hormuz typically handles about 20% of global oil transportation. The UAE is preparing to assist the US and allies in forcefully reopening the Strait and is lobbying the UN Security Council to pass a resolution authorizing such action.
The International Energy Agency warns that even if the war ends in a few weeks, normal traffic through the Strait of Hormuz will take time to resume, as some energy infrastructure has been damaged and will require long-term repairs.
Therefore, if the situation remains similar in the coming days, oil prices are likely to stay firm. Key elements to watch in the next week include:
- Whether there are signs of sustained reopening of the Strait of Hormuz or continued restrictions.
- Whether today’s Monday rebound can sustain or quickly reverse.
- Whether short positions are beginning to close or remain high.
- Whether US inflation expectations remain elevated.
Market Outlook for Major Assets in the Coming Week
BTC: According to the rainbow chart, Bitcoin currently shows no vitality. Candlestick charts indicate that if BTC repeats the past reflexive pattern related to US-Iran war conditions, its price range in the next week will remain within $2,500. If there is no substantial progress on the US-Iran ceasefire, it will negatively impact BTC’s movement. If progress is made, the market will cheer. Today, BTC price rose and may face resistance around $71,550; if it continues upward, don’t ignore the strong resistance at $74,000. If BTC moves downward, it could still fall within a $2,500 decline, with key support near $65,750.
ETH: ETH’s current trajectory is similar to BTC. Today’s price increase may face resistance around $2,230. If it continues upward, watch the $2,300 resistance level. If ETH cannot maintain upward momentum, support is around $1,980.
Gold: Gold remains a safe haven asset amid turmoil. It may rise over the next week, potentially facing resistance around $4,900. Support levels are at $4,646 and $4,390.
Silver: Silver may continue upward in the next week, with resistance around $77. If momentum is strong, it could temporarily rise near $81. If it declines, key support is around $66.
Important Elements to Watch This Week
- Latest developments in the Strait of Hormuz.
- Substantial progress on the ceasefire agreement.
- US policy updates: whether they remain consistent or further schedule adjustments.
- US inflation and labor market data.

#Gate广场四月发帖挑战 Do falling precious metal prices present a buying opportunity?
The escalation of the Middle East situation has heightened inflation expectations, disrupted energy supply chains, driven up military spending, and deepened geopolitical uncertainties. This should have created a favorable environment for precious metals as safe-haven assets. Conversely, since the conflict erupted on February 28, the prices of gold, silver, platinum, and palladium have plummeted, continuing the downward trend that began in the last week of January. So, what has driven this downward trend, and what are the prospects for the future?
Inflation concerns have pushed up precious metal prices over the past year
Multiple factors contributed to the rise in precious metal prices from early 2025 to late January 2026, but fundamentally, they can be summarized as concerns about inflation. Factors fueling inflation expectations include:
First, core inflation above target levels: even before the conflict, inflation levels in most major economies, excluding volatile food and energy prices, were already above central bank targets.
Second, monetary policy becoming more accommodative: despite widespread high core inflation, nearly all major central banks are cutting interest rates.
Third, large fiscal deficits: many countries have budget deficits exceeding GDP, including Brazil (8.5%), France (5.5%), Mexico (4%), the UK (4.5%), and the US (5.5%). Meanwhile, countries like Germany and Japan are also preparing to significantly increase infrastructure and military spending, further expanding deficits.
Fourth, concerns over central bank independence: amid inflation above targets, easing monetary policy, and large budget deficits, investors are increasingly worried that central banks may be pressured to fund deficits through loose monetary policies.
Fifth, geopolitical uncertainties: rising trade barriers, reshoring of supply chains, nearshoring trends, potential conflicts in the Middle East and the Pacific, combined with ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, have prompted investors to allocate assets to precious metals for diversification.
However, this situation began to change in January when Kevin Warsh was nominated to become Federal Reserve Chair in mid-May. Markets believe he may adopt an independent stance on monetary policy and has long been opposed to quantitative easing, or at least cautious about it. Quantitative easing refers to central banks injecting liquidity into the economy by purchasing government bonds and financial assets. As concerns about the Fed’s independence waned, precious metal prices fell sharply. However, by the end of February, before the Middle East conflict erupted, prices had already started to recover.
The conflict proved unfavorable for gold, especially impacting palladium, platinum, and silver more significantly. To some extent, this seems contradictory. Consumer fuel prices like gasoline and diesel have risen sharply. According to AAA, U.S. consumers are paying nearly $1 more per gallon of gasoline compared to February, and diesel (and heating oil) is up by over $1.50. Given that gasoline and other fuels account for about 3% of the Consumer Price Index (CPI), if fuel prices remain at current levels, they could push overall U.S. inflation up by as much as 1 percentage point in the coming months.
Additionally, price increases in other regions globally could be even more pronounced. For example, Brent crude oil futures on NYMEX last trading day are trading at $15 above WTI, and Oman crude on GME is over $60 above WTI. This indicates that Europe and Asia may face more severe energy inflation shocks than the U.S.
Buy on expectations, sell on reality
In the short term, rising inflation is not favorable for precious metals, for a simple reason: central banks are beginning to shift towards rate hikes. The Bank of England has hinted at possible up to three rate increases, and the European Central Bank has warned of potential rate hikes. Although the Fed still expects to cut rates by 25 basis points after the March meeting, federal funds futures have largely discounted further rate cuts in 2026 and 2027. Compared to investors still expecting larger rate cuts, the prospect of fewer or even rate hikes makes holding fiat currency more attractive than precious metals.
To some extent, the performance of precious metals in 2025-2026 resembles the trend from 2019 to 2023. From early 2019 to mid-2020, as market expectations for Fed rate hikes were lowered and the central bank ultimately cut rates to zero during the early pandemic, gold prices soared. Then, from 2021 to 2023, as inflation rose, central banks had to implement the largest rate-tightening measures since the late 1970s, causing gold prices to fall from $2100 to $1600. This is a classic “buy the rumor, sell the fact” scenario. Gold and silver accurately anticipated inflation rising in 2019 and 2020, but when inflation actually materialized, at least in the short term, it became a headwind because precious metals tend to have a negative correlation with interest rate expectations.
From late 2024 to early 2026, the U.S. dollar generally weakened, which in part supported gold and other precious metals, as they tend to be negatively correlated with the daily changes in the Bloomberg U.S. Dollar Index. However, since the Middle East conflict erupted, the dollar has exhibited “safe-haven” characteristics, strengthening relative to most other currencies and thus suppressing precious metals. Meanwhile, the overall market has shown a de-risking trend, leading to slight declines in stock prices, cryptocurrencies, and other risk assets so far.
Future outlook
Many fundamental factors driving precious metal prices upward still exist. Most importantly, no major economy has taken measures to curb budget deficits. Additionally, the conflict may prompt many countries to further increase military spending to adapt to rapidly changing circumstances. In fact, even before the conflict, the U.S. government proposed a 50% increase or $500 billion annually in defense spending, and recently requested $200 billion in additional funds to replenish depleted ammunition stocks.
On the central bank front, some may follow the Reserve Bank of Australia in shifting towards tighter monetary policies, but the tightening is expected to be significantly less aggressive than in 2022 and 2023. In fact, some central banks, including the Bank of Japan, have delayed rate hikes due to concerns that rising oil prices could slow economic growth. As central bank interest rates peak and market expectations shift towards easing policies, precious metals like gold are beginning to break out of the consolidation range seen from 2020 to 2023. In the future, as investors reprice the likelihood of central banks restarting easing measures, precious metal prices could see a new rally, especially if core inflation remains above target levels.#贵金属承压回落

#我的建议经验分享 Farewell to the Newbie: Seven Years in the Crypto Market, Survival Rules I Learned from 7 "Pits"
If you ask me what my biggest feeling in the crypto market is, I would tell you it's not the thrill of rapid gains or the panic of sharp declines, but the profound lessons from countless "pits."
Seven years ago, I entered the market with dreams of overnight wealth, imagining I could easily achieve financial freedom. But reality turned out to be a harsh teacher, using repeated "pits" to teach me what respect for the market really means. Over these years, it’s been like an exhilarating jungle adventure, and these 7 "pits" are the maps and compasses I earned with real money.
01
The Overtrading Trap: The Lesson that Less is More
When I first started trading, I was obsessed with staying "active." Every candlestick felt like an opportunity, every upward move like a chance to make big money. But I quickly realized that more trades don’t necessarily mean more profit. In fact, frequent trading often drained my wallet and increased my regrets. Do you remember me saying I had to participate in every trade? Yes, that mindset almost cost me everything.
More trades don’t equal more profit.
Looking back, I see that doing nothing is often the smartest choice. If the market doesn’t give you a clear edge, why force a trade? Would you rather make five mediocre trades or wait for a perfect opportunity? The answer is obvious now, but I only truly understood this after risking real money. Trading out of boredom is like chasing a rally without research — a disaster recipe.
02
Exhaustion is the Enemy of Trading
I wish someone had drilled this into my mind earlier: never trade when you're tired. I used to think I could stay up late staring at charts, observing the market like an eagle. Well, I was wrong. My decisions became as unreliable as a flawed smart contract. Honestly, how many successful trades have you made after pulling an all-nighter? Exactly, almost none. Decision fatigue hits harder than a flash crash. When you're exhausted, your brain takes shortcuts, and those shortcuts often lead to wrong decisions. Don’t trade when tired. I’ve repeatedly ignored rest, broke stop-losses, and neglected risk management out of stubbornness. Now, I treat sleep as an unnegotiable rule. If I’m not feeling well mentally, I don’t trade.
03
Don’t Break Your Trading Rules Easily
One of the hardest lessons I learned is that rules are not just guidelines—they are lifesavers.
Early on, I thought I was smarter than my trading plan. “Just this once,” I’d tell myself, moving stop-losses or increasing position sizes. Sounds familiar? It should, because every trader has been there. But the truth is: your rules exist for a reason. They are distilled from painful lessons. Breaking rules is like having no strategy in a bear market — destruction is only a matter of time. Discipline isn’t about perfection; it’s about doing the right thing even when it’s uncomfortable. I gradually realized that the best traders aren’t those who never make mistakes, but those who stick to their rules even when they do.
04
Emotional Rollercoaster: Managing Your Mental Energy
Now, let’s talk about something most traders overlook until it backfires: mental energy. Have you ever fallen into a vicious cycle of consecutive losses, where each trade gets worse than the last? I have, and it felt like trying to recover from a Rug project. Sometimes, the best move isn’t to make another trade but to step away completely. This lesson was etched deeply into my trading journey during a particularly tough period. I kept adding to losing positions, thinking I could turn losses into gains. What finally saved me? Rest. Stepping back gave me the clarity I needed to restart. After all, if your mind is as chaotic as a hacked exchange’s funds, what’s the point of technical analysis?
05
Risk Management: The Simple Secret to Survival
Let’s be realistic — risk management might sound unsexy, but it’s the foundation of successful trading. Most traders focus on entry points as if they’re the Holy Grail, but the real magic lies in exit strategies. Have you ever made a perfect entry but lost all your profits (or more) because you had no exit plan? Yes, we’ve all been there. Position sizing, stop-losses, and risk-reward ratios may not seem glamorous, but they are essential for survival in the crypto market. Think about it: do you want ten small wins or one big loss that wipes out your account? The choice seems obvious, but too many traders ignore these basics. Remember, in crypto, survival is victory.
06
The Monster of Ego: Staying Humble in a Bull Market
One of the hardest truths to accept is that the market doesn’t care about your ego. Nothing inflates a trader’s ego more than a big win. Suddenly, you think you can predict the top and bottom like a prophet, feeling like you’ve cracked the market’s code. But reality hits hard — the market always finds a way to remind you who’s boss when you least expect it. The market owes you nothing; humility is the only way to stay in the game. Trust me, your pride isn’t worth risking your portfolio for.
07
The Illusion of Advantage: Knowing When to Stand Aside
This is a somewhat controversial view — sometimes, your biggest advantage is knowing when not to trade. Too many traders force bets in areas they’re not good at, thinking they must stay active at all times. But ask yourself: would you rather make a mediocre trade or wait for your true opportunity? Set a simple rule — if I can’t explain my edge in one sentence, I won’t trade. This approach can save you from countless bad decisions. Remember, the market won’t run away. Opportunities are always reserved for those with patience and discipline.
08
Summary
At the end of the day, successful trading isn’t about flashy wins or overnight riches. It’s about consistently avoiding mistakes and preserving capital when the odds are truly in your favor. Next time you’re tempted to make a reckless trade or ignore your rules, remember these principles. They might not guarantee you to skyrocket, but they will help you stay in the game long enough to catch real opportunities. After all, in the crypto world, endurance is the ultimate winning strategy.