Macroeconomic Background: Mixed Signals in Employment Data
Recently, subtle changes have appeared in the US labor market. Non-farm payrolls decreased by 105,000 in October, then rebounded to 64,000 in November, but the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.6%, reaching a nearly four-year high. This "mixed hot and cold" situation has cooled market expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in January, and the conditions for another rate cut are evidently more stringent. The US dollar has thus been supported, rebounding from the 98.0 level to around 98.60 after stabilizing, and the entire market may enter a short-term adjustment phase.
Nasdaq 100 Index: Downward Pressure Remains, Rebound Momentum Worries
The Nasdaq 100 index is currently oscillating around 25,200 points. The most noteworthy is that the AO indicator has begun to show weakening signals, and downward momentum is brewing, making it unlikely for the rebound to sustain.
From a technical perspective, if the index encounters resistance at 25,500 points during the rebound, it may subsequently test the 25,000 level.