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I’ll have to do a full report on this but It’s been a while since I zoomed out on the true macro structure.
From a structural standpoint, this market looks far more like the late 90s than the 2008 sideways cycle or the Roaring 20s blow-off.
There have only been three true decade+ consolidation periods in the history of the indexes:
• 1910's-1920's
• 1966–1982
• 1996–2013
2008 was the end of a long structural range rather than the asset bubble many would have you believe. Maybe a housing bubble which is largely unproductive but the indexes didn't even make new highs.
Today’s market is nothing
From a structural standpoint, this market looks far more like the late 90s than the 2008 sideways cycle or the Roaring 20s blow-off.
There have only been three true decade+ consolidation periods in the history of the indexes:
• 1910's-1920's
• 1966–1982
• 1996–2013
2008 was the end of a long structural range rather than the asset bubble many would have you believe. Maybe a housing bubble which is largely unproductive but the indexes didn't even make new highs.
Today’s market is nothing
BTC0,41%
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I’ll have to do a full report on this but It’s been a while since I zoomed out on the true macro structure.
From a structural standpoint, this market looks far more like the late 90s than the 2008 sideways cycle or the Roaring 20s blow-off.
There have only been three true decade+ consolidation periods in the history of the indexes:
• 1910's-1920's
• 1966–1982
• 1996–2013
2008 was the end of a long structural range rather than the asset bubble many would have you believe. Maybe a housing bubble which is largely unproductive but the indexes didn't even make new highs.
Today’s market is nothing
From a structural standpoint, this market looks far more like the late 90s than the 2008 sideways cycle or the Roaring 20s blow-off.
There have only been three true decade+ consolidation periods in the history of the indexes:
• 1910's-1920's
• 1966–1982
• 1996–2013
2008 was the end of a long structural range rather than the asset bubble many would have you believe. Maybe a housing bubble which is largely unproductive but the indexes didn't even make new highs.
Today’s market is nothing
BTC0,41%
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We haven't seen a setup like this in ALT coins since early 2016. Similar to the dislocation our report on ETH highlighted the other week. Most similarities point to a macro move beginning akin to 2016/2017 for alts.
ETH0,01%
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Major tops in GOLD coincide with launching major bull moves in equities.
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The GOLD trade does not have as much left in the tank as people think. Macro topping process here historically. Maybe the precious metals super cycle is overblown and closer to an end than beginning. 10k gold? maybe in 10 more years.
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Complete weekly RSI reset from BTC historically takes about 90 weeks. We are now 99 weeks into this most oversold level of the cycle from where it was most overbought. Fundamentals beginning to suggest BTC is already in deep value levels and people wanting to buy lower in q4 are starting to look very greedy
BTC0,41%
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In the first phase of this cycle 22-25 alts were the pain trade. In the next phase BTC will be the pain trade.
BTC0,41%
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Just remember there’s been a lot of macro bears out there at every turn since 2022 yet none of them have been right.
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A Critical Time Window Is Here — And the Risk Trade Is Setting Up,
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Since 2021 each time the OTHERS/ETH chart has entered the red zone we've gotten a risk on signal for small caps. We have just entered that zone again.
ETH0,01%
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The crowd is laughing at the idea of an alt season, but the tape is telling a different story.
Most believe alts can't bottom while BTC slides, yet this is the exact same structural rotation that just hit equities. The Mag 7 has been bleeding while small caps and every other lagging sector explodes.
It is the "opposite of normal" divergence in action and we saw it near the 2022 bottom. While the herd parrots the 4-year cycle for btc, alt coins are showing they're in a cycle of their own.
Most believe alts can't bottom while BTC slides, yet this is the exact same structural rotation that just hit equities. The Mag 7 has been bleeding while small caps and every other lagging sector explodes.
It is the "opposite of normal" divergence in action and we saw it near the 2022 bottom. While the herd parrots the 4-year cycle for btc, alt coins are showing they're in a cycle of their own.
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ETH is putting in a familiar pattern.
Zoom out and the structure is similar to prior major turning points:
• ~60% correction
• Return to key cycle support
• Backtest of the breakout from the previous cycle’s trendline
Both looked broken right before the real expansion phase began.
Extreme upside always begins with extreme doubt.
Zoom out and the structure is similar to prior major turning points:
• ~60% correction
• Return to key cycle support
• Backtest of the breakout from the previous cycle’s trendline
Both looked broken right before the real expansion phase began.
Extreme upside always begins with extreme doubt.
ETH0,01%
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One of the strongest relationships out there no one is talking about is ETH and JETS global airline ETF.
Historically it has nearly a perfect 1 to 1 correlation with ETH at major turning points. Right now JETS is breaking out to fresh 5 year highs while ETH lags.
Last time this happened was late 2016.
History says that when people have excess money for travel and leisure they also like to speculate in crypto.
Historically it has nearly a perfect 1 to 1 correlation with ETH at major turning points. Right now JETS is breaking out to fresh 5 year highs while ETH lags.
Last time this happened was late 2016.
History says that when people have excess money for travel and leisure they also like to speculate in crypto.
ETH0,01%
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Why Ethereum is the Markets Biggest Liar
ETH0,01%
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Why February Is the Inflection Point Most Investors Will Miss
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To be clear my views in recent weeks have been invalidated below 84k. Not looking good for bulls with this breakdown
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Just an idea on the gold/btc chart as the headlines are now saying gold has outperformed btc in the last 5 years. Looking at a similar pattern in time and price to the 2020 crash low that ignited the bull run. By all accounts this is a crash across the board if you look at any asset in gold and silver denominated terms yet now nearly all assets sit a major high time frame support levels
BTC0,41%
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Two weeks ago we laid out why time, cycles, and liquidity were converging into a narrow window.\n\nNothing since has invalidated it.\nIf anything, the signals have only strengthened.\n\nWorth revisiting as structure continues to assert itself\n
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Time and price have squared out from the banking crisis low in 2023.
70k points in 1050 days
1050/70= 15
Banking Crisis= 150 weeks ago
Cycle midpoint= Aug 2024 panic on Japanese carry trade
Today= Japanese bond meltdown
Each of these points are related in time.
70k points in 1050 days
1050/70= 15
Banking Crisis= 150 weeks ago
Cycle midpoint= Aug 2024 panic on Japanese carry trade
Today= Japanese bond meltdown
Each of these points are related in time.
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