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At six in the morning, the mobile alarm hadn’t gone off yet, but three price alerts woke me up.
BTC has broken 86000. No warning, just a direct plunge.
But I was sweating while staring at the screen, not because of that big bearish candle—but because of another number: **76%**.
The probability of the Bank of Japan raising interest rates in December.
This sounds like it has nothing to do with our crypto circle? Wrong. This could be the biggest black swan of the year.
## Let's talk about where the 14 trillion dollars went
Japan's interest rates have been close to zero for years, which is ridiculously cheap. Global institutions have started playing the game of "borrowing yen for arbitrage:"
- Borrow a super low-interest loan from Japan
- Convert to USD
- Rush into US stocks, BTC, and various high-yield assets
This operation has been rolling for decades, how big is the plate now? **14 trillion dollars**.
This money is hidden in the global market like a ghost, pushing asset prices to new highs. BTC can soar to over 100,000, and this "yen hot money" is instrumental.
## The question arises: What if Japan suddenly raises interest rates?
The logic is simple, but the destructive power is huge:
→ The cost of borrowing yen has skyrocketed
→ Institutions must liquidate assets to exchange for yen to repay debts.
→ Global liquidity is instantly drained
Last time when Japan's policy shifted, BTC fell more than 20% in a month. And this time? The market is giving a higher probability of interest rate hikes than last time.
## Even more ruthless is the double whammy
The east side Japan is preparing to collect water, while the west side the Federal Reserve is still observing inflation data. If both sides hit the brakes at the same time, it won't just be a correction—
is liquidity exhaustion.
My social circle exploded today, some are bottom-fishing, some are cutting losses. As for me? I made a decision that surprised everyone.
The specific operation will not be discussed for now, but one thing is clear:
**Where do you stand when $14 trillion in global funds begin to withdraw?**
ETH is now also plummeting along with BTC. This wave is not a technical issue; it is a change in the macro narrative.
The market is voting with real money, what does a 76% probability mean? It means that large funds are already laying out their positions in advance.
Retail investors are often the last to know.