BTC medium-term plot conjecture: the bull market cycle is established, and the pullback is an opportunity

Introduction:

• BTC exceeded $40,000, and our previous expectations have been met. BTC and ETH enter a bull market structure at the chip level, and it can be judged that the new bull market cycle has begun.
• There will definitely be adjustments, cleans, profits, floating chips and high leverage. The target is to have a replacement cost of more than $30,000. A reasonable pullback is around $35,000.
• The key timing points of the larger adjustment are the ETF decision in January, the halving in April, and the possible passage of ETFs in June. **Especially in January, regardless of the ETF results, the market is likely to fall. **
• The real bull market won’t start until after the April halving and the June ETF decision. We should be watching for the pullback window relayout at the end of December. **

**This article is MVC’s commentary on the crypto asset market in December. **

MVC November monthly report we believe that BTC break 3 is 4, with the BTC breaking through 40,000 US dollars, the expectation has been realized, ETH has stood on the bull and bear dividing line of last week’s MA120, BTC and ETH have all entered the bull market structure at the chip level, we can consider that the new bull market cycle has begun. **

For positions that have already been bought in cash below $BTC $28,000 and below $ETH $1,700 and intend to hold them for the long term, I suggest that you can move these positions to cold wallets now, choose to close your eyes, and wait until 2025 to switch back to trading.

As for the question that everyone is most concerned about right now, is there a pullback, and when is the callback? I don’t think it’s a proper question, there will be a pullback, but the real question is, when the 20-30% pullback comes, do you dare to bet full?

The early stage of the development of the market must be tortuous and meandering, we believe that from the beginning of October to the present, the monthly level of the midline market has been loaded to 85% of the progress, BTC and ETH is very obvious in the trend of accelerating the sprint, accelerating the sprint to what price is not too important, the tail 20% of the acceleration to rush up to 45000 US dollars is no problem, can not rush up to 42000 suddenly folded wings is not unexpected, predicting this particularly specific top is not meaningful.

As for the adjustment, the market is already boiling, BitMEX funding and premium are close to the peak of sentiment, from the perspective of the chip profit ratio, the current on-chain BTC profit level has been close to July and October 20, and the short-term profit plate is already high, so we need to clearly understand that there will be an adjustment, and we must also understand what the main purpose of this adjustment is,** The main purpose of the future adjustment is to clean up the profit float and high leverage, and further accumulate the chips before the bull market main wave comes. **

From the perspective of the timing of the adjustment of expectations, we believe that there are only three time nodes to focus on in the next six months, one is the passage node of BTC ETF in mid-January, the second is the halving of around April, and the third is the passage node of BTC ETF around June. ** Purely deduced from the dimension of time, if the ETF passes in January, then the expectation will be landed, there will be a larger callback to cash, if the ETF continues to delay in January, the expectation will be disappointed, and it will trigger a profit-taking flight, and the end is still a pullback, so purely from the point of view of January this node, whether the ETF is over or not, we believe that the market must fall. **

If you look a little further ahead, when the ETF results appear in January, the market pullback will be cashed, and it will slowly climb to the halving, and then the second systematic adjustment will be ushered in in June. However, June is too far away, and we still need to pay more attention to the pullback window after the acceleration of the mid-line market at the end of December, which is also the most important layout window. **

Looking back on the market for more than two months since October, many people’s biggest feeling is that the market seems to lack a particularly clear absolute main line, and the tokens that rebounded more in the market at the beginning of November are mainly based on the logic of the chip structure, and many tokens fell violently and smoothly at the end of 2022 due to the collapse of FTX, forming a huge chip vacuum, such as matic, etc., this rebound is to recover the chip vacuum range at the end of 22. Many tokens have completed 10 months of sideways trading, such as sol/link/dydx, etc., and the bottom is very solid, or new coins that have just been listed on major exchanges, such as Tia/Pyth, etc. Many investors who have experienced the cycle at this stage often feel that they are in a state of rushing and rushing, and there seems to be nothing really new, which is also in line with the characteristics of the bottom rebound theme rotation.

However, in mid-to-late November, market funds found three themes that can be called the main line in the rush, namely BTC ecology represented by ordi, games and AI, and these three themes began to take shape as the background color of the main track.

Although many tokens have risen hugely, we believe that these three themes are still early’**, and they are still in a relatively chaotic state. The current market hype for this kind of theme is more like meme logic, different IQ groups like to hype meme with different themes, iq10 and iq150 hype ordi (can also be counted as DePin), iq100 hype AI, iq50 hype games, and even many elites with hedge fund backgrounds stick to Perp Dex and old DeFi according to the calculator. Chinese fried inscriptions, European and American fried POW and Sol ecology, South Korean chonglunc, each with its own meme (no offense, I think I belong to the IQ50 group).

**Thousands of words into a sentence ‘still early’, let us first enjoy the joy of accelerating the wave, now how to rise and fall is the stage of the initial chip change of hands, a lot of opportunities are still behind, wait until January - February, let us carefully net the big fish. As for the complex impact of macro, interest rate cuts, and the U.S. stock market, we have repeatedly emphasized since January 2023 that these are not important, they are not the main contradictions, and the endogenous crypto cycle always needs to pay the most attention to the natural innovation of the industry, and funds will naturally chase it. **