#Gate广场四月发帖挑战 This Week's Market Analysis and Outlook: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Gold, Silver (Issue 20260413)

Recap
On April 11, the US and Iran began negotiations in Pakistan, but after a lengthy 21-hour discussion, no progress was made. US Vice President Vance told Western media that Iran did not agree to the treaty, but according to Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi’s social media post on the 13th, both sides had already declared and agreed on the negotiation topics before the talks. However, when the agreement was just "one step away," the US demanded too much, with changing demands and threats of blockade, which prevented the negotiations from proceeding. It was also disclosed that there are three "unreasonable demands" Iran cannot accept:
1. The US demands "benefit sharing" in the Strait of Hormuz;
2. Iran to surrender all 60% enriched uranium;
3. Abandon 20 years of uranium enrichment rights.

On April 12, after news broke that US-Iran negotiations had failed, oil prices rebounded, and Bitcoin fell below $72,000. The cryptocurrency market liquidated $74k within the hour.
Due to the breakdown of US-Iran peace talks, Trump ordered a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Gold prices once dropped 2%, to around $4,650 per ounce, erasing all gains from the previous week. The surge in energy prices increased inflation risks, making central banks more likely to delay or even raise interest rates. For non-yielding assets like gold, this is a bearish factor, as gold prices typically benefit from lower borrowing costs.
On April 13, at 22:00 Beijing time, the US will impose a maritime blockade on Iranian ports. Once the news was announced, oil prices began to rise, and European natural gas prices surged. Dutch TTF futures jumped as much as 18%, reaching €51.30 per megawatt-hour. Since the US first struck Iran in late February, European natural gas prices have increased over 50%. The rise in oil and gas prices will inevitably impact other commodities.

According to The Wall Street Journal: Officials and insiders say that Trump and his advisors are considering, alongside the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a limited military strike on Iran to break the current deadlock in peace negotiations. One official said Trump might consider resuming full-scale bombing, but the likelihood is low because it could further destabilize the region, and Trump himself is reluctant to get involved in a prolonged military conflict.
US officials and close sources say that regardless of which option Trump chooses, there are significant risks. Restarting full-scale war would deplete critical munitions and face more opposition from US voters skeptical of Middle East conflicts ahead of the upcoming elections; whereas, if military actions are scaled back while Iran remains intact and continues its nuclear program and control of the Strait, Iran would have a better chance of winning.
Based on today’s real-time data on Strait of Hormuz navigation, the current situation is tightly controlled, with only about 10 ships passing daily on average.
Thus, the US-Iran conflict has never truly stopped, bringing more uncertainty to the world. Currently, whether oil can flow freely is a key indicator for global markets. If shipping in the Strait of Hormuz resumes normalcy, energy pressures could ease quickly. If shipping remains restricted, oil prices will stay high. Meanwhile, the US dollar still dominates global reserves, but its share has been gradually declining. The dollar index recently fell below a key trend line and is now fluctuating between 99 and 98.
Confidence in the US dollar is waning worldwide. Gold, held by major world powers and expected to continue being held, remains a safe haven. If tensions escalate further, as we have repeatedly seen, demand for gold will increase. Therefore, gold’s decline is limited. Amid ongoing conflicts with Iran, safe-haven demand for gold remains strong. Additionally, US tariffs, political unrest, large fiscal deficits, and policy uncertainties have all boosted demand for gold as a store of value.

Market Outlook for Major Assets Next Week

BTC
According to on-chain data, Bitcoin’s pressure cycle appears to be nearing its end—but not fully reversed—indicating risks remain. Macroeconomic headwinds, liquidity conditions, and market sentiment fragility suggest this process could continue temporarily.
No substantial progress in US-Iran ceasefire talks will negatively impact BTC’s movement.
On April 12, BTC paused at $73,823 before challenging $74K, then turned downward. The next week may see continued decline. Price range could be between $74k and $66,220.

ETH
ETH’s recent trajectory closely mirrors BTC’s, also falling after news of failed US-Iran talks.
In the coming week, ETH’s price movement may range between $2,385 and $2,010.

Gold
Gold last week failed to surpass $4,805 and touched a key support at $4,646.
In the next week, gold may mainly fluctuate between $4,896 and $4,640.
However, two scenarios should be watched: if gold exceeds $4,896, it could rise toward $5,010; if it falls below $4,640, it could drop toward $4,400.

Silver
Silver last week did not surpass $77, with a support at $71 below.
In the next week, silver may mainly move between $79 and $74.
But two scenarios to watch: if it exceeds $79, silver could rise toward $82; if it drops below $74, it could fall toward $69.

Key Market Influencers This Week

Latest developments in the Strait of Hormuz: recovery or continued turbulence.
Ceasefire negotiations: progress or further divisions.
US policy signals: consistency or increased unpredictability.
China-related issues: whether there are actual actions beyond verbal statements.
Therefore, as always, caution is advised.