#加密市场回升 Iran Foreign Minister Says the Strait of Hormuz Can Be Safely Navigated for Two Weeks; Energy, Metals, and Fertilizer Prices May Ease

Less than 24 hours after Trump lashed out with the harsh line that “Iranian civilization will be destroyed tonight,” Iran’s Foreign Minister suddenly announced that the Strait of Hormuz can be safely navigated for two weeks. This extreme pressure at the brink of war ultimately ended with both sides simultaneously hitting the brakes. International oil prices plunged by more than 15% overnight, and prices of major commodities such as urea and aluminum also fell in step. A war sent global prices soaring, and the moment news of a ceasefire broke, the market reacted immediately. But the question is: how long can this pullback last?

1. Trump just said he would destroy Iran, and Iran turned around and opened the strait? So fast! Extremely fast!
With Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif urgently mediating, President Trump suddenly announced last night: if Iran agrees, he is willing to accept a two-week halt to airstrikes on Iran, to hold negotiations on the issue of opening the Strait of Hormuz. This statement came only hours after Trump’s earlier ultimatum—issued that if they did not accept the ten-point ceasefire conditions including opening the Strait of Hormuz, he would bomb Iran back to the Stone Age—took effect with just a few hours left. Iran, which had refused to compromise with unyielding toughness, also underwent a dramatic reversal only a few hours later.
On the morning of April 8, Iran’s Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi (Seyed Abbas Araghchi) personally posted on Elon Musk’s X platform, solemnly announcing on behalf of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council: “Within the next two weeks, the Strait of Hormuz can be made to achieve safe passage.” He also clearly stated that if the United States stops attacking, Iran will not retaliate. Araghchi also specifically attached in the post a formal statement drafted starting from April 7, extending heartfelt thanks to “dear brothers” Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Commander Marshal Munir, praising their relentless efforts to end the regional war.
The core of the statement is clear and forceful: in light of Prime Minister Sharif’s brotherly request on Twitter and the request to negotiate based on the U.S. proposal of 15 points, Iran’s Supreme National Security Council has decided:
1. If attacks on Iran stop, Iran’s armed forces will also stop defensive operations; 2. Over the next two weeks, there will be no problem with the safe passage of ships through the Strait of Hormuz.
Al Jazeera, citing Iranian media, reported that the U.S. and Iran will hold face-to-face negotiations in Islamabad, Pakistan’s capital, and will conduct further consultations around a permanent ceasefire. From “the entire civilization will be destroyed tonight” to “a two-week ceasefire, and a two-way ceasefire,” and then to Iran proactively announcing the opening of the strait—this big drama completed three reversals within just 24 hours. Trump’s maximum-pressure play—first bombing Hagh Island, then shouting about destroying civilization, and finally providing a “way out”—has been executed with smooth, effortless consistency. On Iran’s side, from its initial posture of refusing to compromise to announcing safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz, it also took only one night. Both sides hit the brakes for a simple reason: they can’t afford to fight, and oil prices can’t hold either.

2. Is the price surge about to calm down, or is it coming to an end? Energy, metals, and fertilizer enter a window for a pullback?
Behind this dramatic reversal is the strong willingness to stop fighting shown by both the U.S. and Iran. Trump decided to take the win— the missile factories, warehouses, air defense systems, nuclear facilities, and most senior officials and officers in Iran: what needed to be bombed had already been bombed, and what needed to be destroyed had already been destroyed. The U.S. has also never intended to occupy other countries’ land for the long term; once it’s about done, it returns home. And Iran also does not want to be truly “bombed back to the Stone Age.” It proactively promised that the Strait of Hormuz will resume safe passage within the next two weeks—effectively pressing the global energy and supply chain “pause button.” After weeks of conflict-driven spikes in prices for energy, metals, fertilizer, shipping, and more, prices have likely already topped in the short term and will quickly fall back, and global markets can finally breathe easier.

First, let’s look at the energy market. After the Iran conflict broke out, Brent crude jumped from the 2/27 pre-war close of $72.48 per barrel, rising all the way to $109.27 on 4/7—a gain of as much as 50.75%. After March 24, it even remained at levels above $100 for two straight weeks. After Trump announced a conditional two-week ceasefire on the 7th, oil prices fell below $100 immediately at that night’s open. On the morning of the 8th, after Iran’s Foreign Minister posted to confirm the navigation conditions, oil prices once even dipped to a low of $91.72. As of 3 p.m., they closed at $94.85, down 13.2% from the previous day’s close. The Strait of Hormuz is a global 20% oil shipping route; once navigation is restored, supply-tightness expectations ease immediately, and the downward oil-price trend has become very obvious.
Next, fertilizer prices—this is a core input indispensable for grain production. Data from the World Bank shows that representative fertilizer urea saw a sharp month-on-month increase of 54% in March versus February, and international prices in April reached $726 per ton, up 54% from March’s $472; year on year, it also surged by more than 1.8 times, reaching the highest level since April 2022 since the Russia-Ukraine conflict. With 2010 as the base year, the fertilizer composite price index rose to 183, up 38 percentage points month on month from February, with a gain of 26.2%. The UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) pointed out that 30%-35% of global urea export volume and 20%-30% of ammonia come from Gulf countries. With the actual blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, Qatar’s urea plant shut down, transport stalled, and in addition, natural gas prices rose by about 60% due to the conflict, directly pushing up fertilizer costs. Chaos in Middle East shipping routes not only affects energy, but also seriously disrupts the essential inputs for food production.
The FAO particularly emphasized: “Unlike crude oil, fertilizer has no international strategic stockpiles, and supply chain chaos is even harder to manage.” Now that the promise of safe passage for two weeks has been issued, the transportation bottlenecks are about to be unblocked, and a pullback in fertilizer prices is to be expected, with global food security pressures also set to ease significantly.

Metal prices were also dealt a heavy blow. Take aluminum products as an example: Iran’s conflict not only raised freight rates, but also caused Middle East aluminum production capacity to shrink. Iran attacked Alba, Bahrain Aluminum Company (Alba), and the UAE’s Global Aluminum industry; the latter issued a force majeure order on March 4, unable to transport metals. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz further restricted aluminum exports to Europe and the United States, and the Middle East accounts for 9% of global aluminum production, while imports of alumina feedstock were also blocked. The London Metal Exchange aluminum benchmark price rose from $3,156.5 per ton on 2/27 before the conflict to $3,599.5 per ton on 4/7, for a cumulative gain of 14%, the highest in four years. Now that navigation is expected to resume, the difficulty of adjusting the supply chain is reduced, and metal prices such as aluminum are expected to quickly pull back. Shipping prices also rose with demand: during the conflict, insurance premiums and freight rates surged, driving global trade costs sharply higher. The two-week safe passage commitment directly alleviated this pressure.

3. The market exhaled, but has the alarm been fully lifted?
This round of commodity price increases likely already reached a phased peak. But it needs to be kept in mind that a two-week ceasefire does not mean permanent peace. Among Iran’s ten-point conditions in the negotiations are hard-core demands including the withdrawal of U.S. combat troops from regional bases, the lifting of all sanctions, and the unfreezing of Iran’s overseas assets. With any one of these conditions taken out, it would be difficult for Trump to accept the entire package. The prospects for the talks in Islamabad are not clear; if negotiations fail, oil prices could quickly rebound in the short term and once again break above $100.
Two weeks is only a window, not a long-term guarantee of stability. But at least in the short term, the market has shifted from “extreme panic” to “cautious optimism.” For the global economy, this is a rare chance to catch its breath.