#Gate广场四月发帖挑战 Why did Trump suddenly back down?

The plan for a large-scale bombing of Iran's energy facilities by the U.S. and Israel is ready, awaiting only Trump's order. Iran has also shut down all diplomatic channels with the U.S. However, less than two hours before the deadline, a dramatic turn occurred. Trump announced his agreement to a two-week bilateral ceasefire, which Iran accepted, with Israel also participating. This outcome warrants a review.

According to Axios on July 7, the U.S. and Israel had prepared a plan for a large-scale bombing of Iran's energy facilities, pending only Trump's attack order. On the same day, Iran's Tehran Times reported that Iran had closed all diplomatic and indirect communication channels with the U.S. In other words, all diplomatic efforts had failed before the final ultimatum took effect, and the world was waiting to see if Trump would issue the "attack order."

However, just less than two hours before Trump's self-imposed deadline of 8 p.m. Eastern Time on April 7, the situation dramatically reversed. Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz urgently intervened, proposing a two-way plan to extend the deadline by two weeks and open the Strait of Hormuz for two weeks. Trump immediately announced on social media: "I agree to suspend bombing and attacks on Iran for two weeks. This will be a bilateral ceasefire!" According to The New York Times, Iran's new Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, approved the ceasefire. Senior White House officials also confirmed to CNN that Israel agreed to be part of the ceasefire agreement. Previously, Trump had threatened that "the entire civilization will perish," "bomb Iran back to the Stone Age," and even "destroy Iran's 6,000-year-old civilization." Yet, when Pakistan's urgent mediation plan was presented, he almost immediately chose to accept. This indicates that the "final deadline" Trump presented to the world, which seemed unchangeable, actually revealed significant flexibility and room for retreat in practice.

The current dire situation was not solely caused by Trump being misled by Netanyahu or making wrong judgments before the war; Iran also made mistakes in "misleading" Trump. Trump's repeated exaggerated threats like "civilization's demise" and "hell's gate" were largely influenced by Israel. Netanyahu had previously explicitly told Trump "not to rush into a ceasefire," emphasizing that Israel would continue to "eliminate" Iranian high-level personnel. The U.S. Department of Defense had shifted its strategic focus from the Middle East to the Asia-Pacific, leading to many blind spots in preparing for war against Iran. However, when Pakistan's mediation plan was on the table, Trump almost immediately chose to accept. This fully demonstrates that Trump's threats of "civilization's demise" were initially a psychological warfare tactic of maximum pressure.

Iran's strategic judgment before the war was also significantly flawed. Before the conflict, Iran mistakenly believed Trump's war rhetoric was merely a maximum pressure tactic, thinking that making some concessions to the U.S. would persuade him to back down. During several rounds of negotiations before the war, Iran made near-surrendering compromises or concessions, believing this would prevent U.S. and Israeli strikes. Instead, this sent a dangerous signal to Trump: Iran fears bombing, and further pressure could force it to fully capitulate.

As a result, when the U.S. and Israel were about to launch strikes, Ayatollah Khamenei was still meeting with dozens of core commanders, which naturally led to being "taken out in one go." After the war started, Iran quickly retaliated fiercely, but the targets of its strikes were problematic: they focused on U.S. allies' targets in the Middle East, which had already largely withdrawn before the attack, limiting the effectiveness. More importantly, cross-border attacks on these countries' targets provoked strong dissatisfaction. Although these countries did not retaliate, they used their defense missiles to help or protect U.S. forces. If Iran had fully targeted Israel as warned before the war, even attacking "non-military targets," interception success rates would have been lower, and the strikes more effective. If Iran had launched all missiles at Israel, the tiny country would have been stunned and hesitant to continue fighting.

Although war should not target civilian infrastructure, when the U.S. and Israel launched a joint strike that directly killed key Iranian figures, this was clearly a non-military target. Iran had little reason to hold back. In fact, Iran's choice of these targets was driven by fear of harsher retaliation or a desire to avoid full-scale war.

Despite Iran blocking the Strait of Hormuz, under Trump's stern warning, the blockade was not fully lifted but showed signs of loosening. Especially after Trump conveyed through intermediaries the possibility of ceasefire and lifting the blockade, Iran's stance on the blockade significantly softened. All this reveals Iran's fear of being attacked and further convinces Trump that stronger pressure will make Iran concede. Now, a two-week ceasefire has been reached, and face-to-face negotiations between Iran and the U.S. are expected to officially start on April 10 in Islamabad.

For Iran, the upcoming negotiations will be a real test. "Persistence is victory," and Iran must remember this. If Iran shows further concessions during the Islamabad talks, it risks repeating the pre-war pattern of "making concessions but still getting hit." The following lessons must be deeply learned:

1. Never harbor any illusions: especially regarding the U.S. and Trump, do not expect to reach any agreement without achieving a final result. The U.S.'s violations of promises and disregard for international rules over the past year have destroyed any credibility in diplomacy. Even if an agreement is reached, it will be of little use.

2. Demonstrate a "fight to the end" resolve. Iran must focus its real retaliatory strikes on Israel, the weak link, using all available missiles and drones to indiscriminately target Israel's missile defenses and "non-military targets," to make Israel truly afraid and force Trump to back down.

3. Never make "temporary alliances" or concessions. Any agreement must be based on Iran holding the battlefield advantage and initiative. Otherwise, even signing an agreement could lead to a repeat of the 2015 Iran Nuclear Deal, with the U.S. unilaterally tearing it up and reimposing sanctions.

4. Be wary of traps during the "two-week window." The ceasefire is both a breathing space and a potential trap. If Iran makes substantial concessions during this period (such as relaxing control of the Strait), and the U.S. and Israel use this time to regroup, Iran risks repeating the history of "temporary ceasefire creating attack opportunities for opponents."

When Trump renamed the U.S. Department of Defense as the Department of War, it was an attempt to use war to achieve results that failed in the tariff battles!

For Iran, the greatest threat is not the U.S. or Trump, but Israel, which has long been eager to eliminate Iran's war potential, willpower, and future development. Without thoroughly destroying Iran's war capability, willpower, and ability to rebuild, Israel will never stop. Iran's retaliatory strikes have indeed put strong pressure on Israel, which also fears being heavily damaged if the conflict continues. Currently, Israel is also beginning to lose confidence. Iran must not show weakness now. Only by frightening Israel into collapse can Iran have a chance to survive.

Although the dramatic "bilateral ceasefire" temporarily paused the war, the next two weeks remain full of great uncertainty.