Bitcoin Market Warning: Will Bitcoin Face Another Test and Drop to $31,000?

Regarding the future trend of cryptocurrencies, institutions generally hold cautious or even pessimistic expectations, and the downward pressure on Bitcoin continues to intensify. Market analysts point out that the critical $60,000 support level for Bitcoin is currently under close watch. Once this threshold is effectively broken, it is highly likely to open a downward channel toward the $50,000 range, with subsequent declines potentially further expanding.
Historically, Bitcoin typically needs to wait until the 50-week moving average falls below the 100-week moving average (the "death cross") to truly bottom out. Currently, this signal has not appeared, indicating that there may still be room for further market decline.

What’s more concerning is that Ned Davis Research, a globally renowned independent macro and market strategy research firm, recently issued a stern warning in a client report: despite cryptocurrencies experiencing significant sell-offs over the past few months, Bitcoin still has substantial potential downside. Pat Tschosik, the firm’s chief thematic strategist, and analyst Philippe Mouls stated that if this bear market evolves into a full-blown Bitcoin winter, its price could fall to $31,000, about 55% below the current level, essentially halving after a discount.
Additionally, Liu Jin, Professor of Accounting and Finance at Cheung Kong Graduate School of Business and Director of the Investment Research Center, provided a unique analysis in an interview with 21st Century Business Herald: although many call Bitcoin "digital gold," its movement is significantly different from gold and is highly correlated with the Nasdaq index. Essentially, it should be viewed as a technology asset, with investors mostly having a tech background. This also means that subsequent volatility in the tech sector and market risk sentiment will continue to influence Bitcoin’s trend. Notably, even during ongoing market declines, some institutions are increasing their holdings against the trend. On February 23, news showed that Bitcoin holding giant Strategy raised $39.7 million from February 17 to 22 to buy 592 BTC at an average price of $67,286 per coin. As of February 22, its total Bitcoin holdings had increased to 717,722 coins. Whether such contrarian actions can reverse the cryptocurrency downturn remains uncertain.

On one side, there is the ongoing sharp decline and countless investors crying out for margin calls; on the other, there are institutional warnings and contrarian positions. The volatility in the cryptocurrency market continues.

Can the $60,000 support level hold? Will Bitcoin really fall to $31,000? How long will the crypto bear market last? Is there a possibility of a rebound? Feel free to leave comments and share your thoughts!