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✨Headline CPI inflation in the US fell to 2.4% annually as of January 2026 (from 2.7% in December 2025). This is the lowest level since May 2025 and below expectations. Falling energy prices (gasoline -7.5%), a slowdown in housing, and some other factors contributed to this decline.
✨Headline CPI Forecasts for 2026 and 2027
🔹Forecasts vary depending on factors such as tariff policies, immigration effects, fiscal stimulus, and AI investments. Most sources predict that inflation will approach the Fed's 2% target, but it may take until 2027 to fully reach it. The tariff pass-through effect creates an upside risk in 2026.
✨General consensus: Fluctuation in the 2.5-3.0% range in 2026, approaching 2.2-2.5% in 2027. The disinflation process to reach the Fed's 2% target may take until 2027-2028. Inflation is still above the Fed's target, but cooling signals strengthened with the January data. The forecast ranges are wide due to tariff and policy uncertainties.
#USCoreCPIHitsFour-YearLow
#USCoreCPIHitsFour-YearLow
✨Since shelter inflation accounts for approximately 40% of core CPIs, a drop to the 2-3% range in 2026 could bring overall core inflation closer to 2.2-2.5%. However, due to services inflation and potential tariff effects, full disinflation may not occur until 2027.