Japanese Yield Pressure: Why Is Bitcoin Lagging While Gold Soars?

Research from Delphi Digital reveals an interesting phenomenon in the asset market: although Bitcoin is currently experiencing consolidation pressure with the price at $83.09K, gold continues to show strength on the upside. This divergence pattern is not coincidental—its root lies in the dynamics of Japanese bond yields, which are under extraordinary pressure in the global market.

Contradictory Asset Behavior: Gold Rises While Japanese Bond Yields Increase

In conventional economic theory, when government bond yields rise, the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets—such as gold and Bitcoin—should increase. This means investors would prefer interest-bearing instruments, causing gold and Bitcoin to be pressured downward. However, the current situation is the opposite. According to Odaily, this phenomenon indicates something more complex: the market is pricing in monetary policy tensions and structural vulnerabilities, not just responding to normal economic growth.

Japanese Bond Yields Reach Extreme Levels

Data shows that the 10-year Japanese government bond yield is currently around 3.65 standard deviations above its long-term average. This extreme level reflects significant stress in the Japanese fixed income market, triggering responses across various asset segments. The Bank of Japan, in its structural role as the largest holder of long-term bonds, has substantial exposure to Japanese government bonds.

Market Nerve: How Gold Absorbs Pressure While Bitcoin Reacts Differently

The differing responses of gold and Bitcoin to rising Japanese bond yields reveal a subtle market mechanism. Gold absorbs this policy pressure as a store of value amid macroeconomic volatility. Conversely, Bitcoin shows a negative correlation with the 10-year Japanese government bond yield—meaning when yields rise in Japan, Bitcoin tends to experience pressure. In the long term, Bitcoin has struggled alongside the continued rise in Japanese bond yields.

Recovery Scenario: The Role of Bank of Japan Intervention

This dynamic raises an important question: what if the Bank of Japan actively intervenes to stabilize the bond market? If Japanese monetary authorities step in and successfully reduce pressure on Japanese bond yields, the risk premium currently absorbed by gold may ease. In such a scenario, Bitcoin could have room to recover, regardless of the reduced bond yield pressures. The development of Japan’s monetary policy situation will be a key factor in the evolution of the Bitcoin and digital asset markets in the coming period.