Forget what they tell you about inflation targets and employment mandates—modern monetary policy boils down to one thing: keeping the government's massive debt load manageable.

When rates rise too fast or the dollar strengthens too much, refinancing becomes unsustainable. That's the real constraint central banks face, not the textbook inflation-employment tradeoff.

Here's the uncomfortable truth: the USD is severely overvalued given what's actually coming down the pipeline. The math on government debt trajectories simply doesn't work at current levels. Either the currency needs to correct, yields need to stay suppressed, or fiscal discipline needs to materialize—spoiler alert, guess which one's most likely?

For crypto markets and alternative assets, this dynamic matters enormously. Understand that monetary policy is fundamentally about debt sustainability, and you'll see why certain assets suddenly make more sense in the broader portfolio picture.