Is there a guaranteed winning speculation? In most people's eyes, speculation is equivalent to gambling—long-term gambling leads to losses. But what if you speculate more often? Is it also destined to lose? Think about it. There are two types: one is reckless speculation without strategy or discipline, essentially just betting big or small, or a draw. When speculation occurs frequently, according to the mean reversion theory, you won't ultimately win; you might get overly emotional in a single loss and be unable to recover. For example, recently in Chaozhou, an old brother shorted US stocks and lost ten million yuan, now forced to live a working life. The other type is systematic, strategic speculation, like playing blackjack, where by calculating and comparing scores, the player’s winning probability exceeds the house’s. In theory, this is a guaranteed winning speculation, which requires capital planning, trading strategies, tools to analyze historical data and calculate success probabilities, high verification of strategy effectiveness, operational discipline, and principles. How to plan such a system? Divide your capital into many parts, use one part to bet on big or small, and if you win, repeat the same bet; if you lose, double down on the next round. When you win, return to the initial bet; if you lose, double again. Repeat this cycle. Statistically, you won't lose every round; just one win can recover the initial stake. The theoretical flaw is that most people don't have enough money, or if they do, they don't value such speculative gains. Therefore, improving this systematic, strategic speculation requires continuous thinking, review, and testing with software that calculates the success rate, to find the most acceptable optimal strategy and supporting targets. Bottoms with a positive T and tops with an inverted T have higher success rates in speculation. When stocks are at the bottom, leverage statistical arbitrage of price differences. Before each operation, remind yourself: small price difference quantification success versus slightly larger price difference failure is a qualitative difference. Winners are kings; losers are bandits. Even a small success is still success; failure is failure. Finance relies on absolute strength, not tears. $XR I $ZETA $IP