Determining whether an industry has a future really only requires asking yourself one question:

In this sector, are those who are good at self-promotion and networking more likely to climb the ranks than those who are truly capable and possess genuine skills?

If the answer is yes—then this industry is basically on a downward slope, or it has already been targeted by a new paradigm ready to disrupt it.

Why? Because the more an industry relies on personal connections, information asymmetry arbitrage, and power relationships, the more it indicates that it is stuck in a zero-sum competition stage, lacking innovation and technological breakthroughs. Once someone introduces new technology and logic, this network-based economy will collapse.

Conversely: if in an industry, those with strong execution skills, solid technical expertise, and reliable products have a much higher success rate than those who are just good at talking—then it indicates that this industry is still in an explosive growth phase, and genuine skills are the hard currency.

You can try using this standard to evaluate your field; the answer is often quite eye-opening.