2026-01-07 04:21:16

Here's an interesting question for energy markets: Could Venezuelan oil expansion actually work where the US shale push fizzled?

The math is brutal. You'd need roughly $115 billion just to double production capacity — that's triple the combined capex Exxon and Chevron threw at their projects last year. Let that sink in.

But say Venezuela actually pulls it off. What happens then? Those barrels hit global markets and start competing hard on price. And guess who gets hurt first? US shale producers are exposed. Cheaper crude from Venezuela could undercut them before anyone else feels the squeeze.

So there's the paradox: even if the capital materializes and the infrastructure gets built, the victory might be short-lived. More supply chasing prices lower isn't exactly a winning formula for sustainable margins.

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BearMarketGardener

· 22h ago

115 billion invested to double capacity, Venezuela is probably overestimating... US shale oil can't even handle this level of investment, why would they? Even if it happens, flooding the global market with cheap oil, the first to suffer would still be US shale producers... This is what you call shooting yourself in the foot. The more supply, the lower the price, this deal is simply not profitable... Short-term gains lead to long-term troubles. Venezuela oil field turning around? I think it's unlikely, initial financing is already a problem. This logic is actually quite ironic... Success can actually accelerate failure.

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OnchainHolmes

· 01-08 23:59

Spending 115 billion USD still might not turn the tide; Venezuela's chess game is hard to understand. 2. To put it simply, if production increases, prices will have to drop. Who loses out? It's the same old logic going in circles. 3. U.S. shale oil is really panicking now. Cheap oil and gas flooding in makes marginal costs worthless. 4. Honestly, this is like those dreamy financing projects in the crypto world last year—having a lot of money doesn't mean it will succeed. 5. Look at this supply competition; in the end, the ones who suffer are the producers who have to rely on costs. 6. 115 billion? That's a joke. That's three times ExxonMobil's investment... How will they fill this financing gap? 7. It's a vicious cycle, everyone. Spend money to expand production, then engage in price wars—who can win?

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HorizonHunter

· 01-07 04:51

Over 100 billion to double capacity? Where does Venezuela get so much money... Easy to say, hard to do.

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GasFeeCrier

· 01-07 04:38

115 billion USD? Where does Venezuela get that money... This calculation is simply beyond comprehension. 2. Shale oil producers are about to cry; cheap oil flooding the market will cause chaos. 3. Doubling production sounds great, but when supply increases, prices plummet. What's the point of making money? It's a vicious cycle. 4. If it really becomes a problem, it might backfire on themselves. With fierce competition in low-priced oil, who can hold out? 5. Selling more oil results in earning less money... This logic is a bit ironic.

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InscriptionGriller

· 01-07 04:34

115 billion USD poured in just for a price war of internal competition, no matter how you calculate this deal, it's not worth it.

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ChainChef

· 01-07 04:31

honestly the capital requirements alone are cooked before they even get started... $115B? that's like trying to build a michelin kitchen with a food truck budget. venezuela's got the crude but the recipe's missing half the ingredients lmao

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