#打榜优质内容 The weak US Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) data has caused Trump to explode in anger, and the crypto market may face the "fall devil month".

The crypto market has historically performed poorly in August. According to statistics from Lookonchain, August and September are historically the worst months for Bitcoin (BTC). Data shows that in the past 12 years, Bitcoin's price has fallen in 8 out of those 12 years during August and September, with a fall probability of 67%.

The market is facing a critical turning point: short-term pullback or long-term consolidation?
Currently, the market is facing a key question: is this pullback a healthy short-term correction, or are we about to enter a long-term consolidation phase again? Following this data event, market expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September have continued to rise. CME's "FedWatch" shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates by 25 basis points in September has risen to 89.8%, while the probability of keeping rates unchanged has fallen to 10.2%. The probability of a cumulative rate cut of 50 basis points in October has reached 51.8%. From a macro perspective, weak US employment data may accelerate the pace of Federal Reserve rate cuts, which theoretically should be beneficial for risk assets, including encryption.

Regarding the future price trend of Bitcoin, a report from the digital asset investment firm CoinShares shows that if Bitcoin occupies a small portion of global liquidity and gold market value, its price could rise by double-digit percentages from current levels. Analysts point out that Bitcoin is currently still in a consolidation phase since the end of June, with $115,000 as a key support level; if it falls below $114,000, it may test the support range of $111,000 to $112,500. Currently, long-term holders still control 53% of the supply, and if there is large-scale selling pressure, new funds will need to flow in to support it.