Trading Moment: Trump Releases Favourable Information to Boost the crypto market, Bitcoin Breaks $100,000 Again, Ether Surges 20%, Analysis Reminds of Seasonal Pattern to "Sell in May"

1. Market Observation

Keywords: SOL, ETH, BTC

After the trade agreement was reached between the United States and the United Kingdom, Trump immediately encouraged investors to “buy stocks now”, and this series of favourable information ignited optimistic sentiment in the market. According to the agreement, tariffs on UK steel and aluminum products exported to the US will be eliminated, and car tariffs will be significantly reduced from 27.5% to 10%. However, the 10% “reciprocal tariff” imposed by the US previously will remain. Boosted by this, the three major US stock indices rose collectively, with the S&P 500 index at one point rising nearly 1.6%, and the Nasdaq soaring 2%. At the same time, the US dollar index returned above the 100 mark, causing non-US currencies to generally weaken, and gold also faced pressure due to the strengthening dollar, with spot gold briefly falling below 3300 dollars overnight, a decline of nearly 2%.

The cryptocurrency market was also boosted by Trump’s call, with Bitcoin breaking the $100,000 mark for the first time since February, reaching as high as $104,000 this morning, briefly surpassing Amazon to become the world’s fifth-largest asset. This strong rise led to a short squeeze of $836 million yesterday, marking the largest single-day short squeeze in history. Geoffrey Kendrick, head of digital assets at Standard Chartered Bank, stated that setting Bitcoin’s second-quarter target at $120,000 “might have been too conservative”. However, BTSE COO Jeff Mei also reminded investors to be aware of the seasonal pattern of “sell in May” — historical data shows that Bitcoin dropped 35% in May 2021 and 15% in May 2022.

Ethereum performed more impressively, with a single-day big pump of over 20%, breaking through $2200, and the ETH/BTC ratio returning to the 0.02 level after a month. Nevertheless, to return to the historical high of 0.05, Ethereum still has significant room for rise. It is noteworthy that although the price has risen and the network recently underwent the Pectra upgrade, Ethereum’s network activity remains lackluster, with weak growth in trading volume and active addresses. Since 2021, on-chain activity in the base layer has stagnated, and institutional demand is generally on a downward trend, so the sustainability of its rising trend remains to be observed.

The altcoin market closely follows the trend of mainstream coins, with a general rise across the board, and some strong coins seeing an increase of over 20%. Several projects within the Ethereum ecosystem stand out, such as MOODENG, NEIRO, PEPE, EIGEN, LQTY, and ETHFI, all with increases exceeding 30%. In contrast, Solana’s rise has been relatively mild, increasing only 8% to $162, and its on-chain activity seems to have been diverted by the secondary market, with no quality fast passes appearing in the past 24 hours. Interestingly, there is a clear flow of funds shifting between crypto assets and other digital asset markets — the CS jewelry market has recently seen a significant decline, forming an almost opposite trend to the crypto market, essentially erasing the gains of the previous week.

The CS item market has experienced a significant decline.

2. Key Data (as of May 9, 12:00 HKT)

(Data source: Coinglass, Upbit, Coingecko, SoSoValue, Tomars, GMGN, Steamdt)

• Bitcoin: $102,546 (year-to-date +9.78%), daily spot trading volume $47.583 billion
• Ethereum: $2,214.65 (Year-to-date -33.49%), daily spot trading volume is $37.764 billion
• Fear and Greed Index: 73 (Greed)
• Average GAS: BTC 1.01 sat/vB, ETH 1.07 Gwei
• Market Share: BTC 63.4%, ETH 8.3%
• Upbit 24-hour trading volume ranking: XRP, LAYER, BTC, Ether, VIRTUAL
• 24-hour BTC Long/Short Ratio: 0.9623
• Sector Rise and Fall: The Meme sector rose by 10.14%, and the AI sector rose by 9.98%.
• 24-hour liquidation data: A total of 186,745 people were liquidated globally, with a total liquidation amount of 865 million USD, including 342 million USD in BTC liquidations, 285 million USD in ETH liquidations, and 25.86 million USD in SOL liquidations.
• BTC Medium to Long-term Trend Channel: Upper channel line (97519.88 USD), lower channel line (95588.79 USD)
• ETH Medium to Long-Term Trend Channel: Upper Channel Line (1914.51 USD), Lower Channel Line (1876.60 USD)

*Note: When the price is above the upper and lower bounds, it indicates a medium to long-term bullish trend; conversely, it indicates a bearish trend. When the price is within the range or repeatedly crosses the cost range in the short term, it indicates a bottoming or topping state.

3. ETF Flows (as of May 8)

• Bitcoin ETF: $117 million
• Ethereum ETF: -$16.11 million (net outflow for 3 consecutive days)

4. Today’s Outlook

• Doodles will launch the $DOOD airdrop tonight at 21:05.
• Coinbase plans to launch 24/7 Bitcoin and Ethereum futures trading on May 9.
• Movement (MOVE) will unlock approximately 50 million tokens at 8 PM on May 9, which is 2.0% of the current circulation, valued at about 8.7 million USD;

Top 500 Market Value Today’s Biggest Rise: MOODENG rose by 100.15%, PNUT rose by 48.05%, NEIRO rose by 42.06%, VIRTUAL rose by 32.50%, EIGEN rose by 30.49%.

! Trading moment: Trump released good news to help the crypto market, Bitcoin broke $100,000 again, Ethereum soared 20%, analysis reminds of the seasonal pattern of “selling in May”

5. Hot News

• CleanSpark’s quarterly revenue increased by 62.5% year-on-year, and Bitcoin assets are nearly 1 billion USD.
• Mining company MARA’s Q1 revenue increased by 30%, Bitcoin holdings surged to 47,531 coins.
• Ripple and the SEC have officially reached a settlement agreement, intending to conclude the case with a $50 million settlement.
• Acurast will launch its token sale on CoinList at 1 AM on May 16.
• The stablecoin GENIUS bill failed to pass in the Senate, with Democrats pointing to Trump’s conflict of interest in coins.
• Coinbase’s Q1 revenue fell short of expectations, with trading activity decreasing by 10%.
• Coinbase will list Space and Time (SXT)
• Public company DeFi Development Corp spent approximately 2.97 million USD to increase its holdings of 20,473 SOL.
• Trump: The United States will raise $6 billion in external revenue by imposing a 10% tariff on the UK.
• The SEC is studying a tokenized securities registration exemption plan to accelerate the application of distributed ledger technology.
• The Arbitrum DAO approved the allocation of 35 million ARB tokens for tokenized US Treasury bonds to Franklin Templeton, Spiko, and WisdomTree.
• TRUMP dinner list TOP9 whales are suspected to have cleared all their coins, and if sold, will incur a loss of $434,000.
• Coinbase will acquire the crypto options platform Deribit for $2.9 billion.
• Missouri may exempt capital gains tax on cryptocurrency and stocks.
• Indian listed company Jetking plans to raise funds to gradually increase its holdings of Bitcoin, aiming to accumulate a total of 18,000 coins by 2030.
• The Sei community is considering abandoning the native Cosmos accounts and fully transitioning to the EVM architecture.
• Upbit will launch Celestia(TIA) and io.net(IO)