In-depth analysis of Polymarket: 27,000 trades by the top ten profit whales in December reveal the truth behind "smart money": the extremely high win rate is masked by a large number of open "zombie orders," with actual win rates only slightly above random; hedging arbitrage is far more complex than imagined, and blind imitation can lead to losses. (Background summary: Heaven, Earth, Humanity—why did the prediction market only explode after nearly 40 years?) (Additional background: 26 predictions about the development of prediction markets in 2026) Table of Contents 1. SeriouslySirius: 73% win rate masked by "zombie orders," and the complex quantitative hedging network 2. DrPufferfish: Turning small probabilities into large ones, the ultimate "profit-loss ratio" management art 3. gmanas: High-frequency automated assembly line operations 4. Hunter sim

Author: trustin Part One: Timeline Review — Establishing Order January: MiCA Fully Enters into Force, European Market Completes "Quality Upgrade" 【Event】The EU's Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA) for electronic money tokens (EMT) and asset-referenced tokens (ART) officially comes into effect. The European Banking Authority (EBA) has delisted more than 15 unlicensed algorithmic stablecoins and offshore USD stablecoins. 【In-Depth Analysis】This is the world's first major economy to complete a "clean-up" of the stablecoin market. The historical mission of algorithmic stablecoins in compliant markets has essentially ended. The market logic has shifted from "efficiency first" to "solvency first." This has also forced global exchanges to upgrade their token listing review mechanisms—without real-time proof of reserves (PoR) and clear legal entities, these assets will lose

_NFT supply has hit 1.34B as sales plunge. Digital art fades, while gaming NFTs thrive through real utility and play-to-own adoption._ The NFT space is currently facing a harsh reality check. A new year has begun, and the total number of NFTs minted across all blockchains has surged to a

The RWA (Real World Asset) narrative has been hot for years, with endless claims that "everything can be tokenized"—real estate, art, fine wine, carbon credits, and more. It all sounds revolutionary, but most of these ideas are fundamentally misguided.

Larian Studios' new project "Divinity" has announced the use of generative AI in development, sparking backlash from players. The official quickly clarified that AI will only be used for assistance and automation tasks, and will never replace human employees or be used to create AI-generated content. Divinity uses AI-assisted development, causing player backlash ------------------------- Famous for "Divinity: Original Sin" and "Baldur's Gate 3," game developer Larian Studios recently revealed their new project "Divinity," which garnered significant attention from the gaming community. However, after a report by Bloomberg was published, the promotional atmosphere shifted. The Bloomberg report stated that Larian is integrating generative AI technology into the development process of the new game, using it to enhance presentation content, develop concept art, and write scripts.

Author: Matt Harris Translation: Tim, PANews At a dinner last summer, someone mistakenly thought I was in finance and asked me a question about the art market. Although I am not an expert, I answered from the perspective of a venture capitalist. In the end, I barely explained how the art market operates and how it differs from the markets I have studied throughout my life. However, these questions have always lingered in my mind. Why can I be well-versed in one market but feel unfamiliar with another? Can assets cross between these two markets, or are they forever stuck in a fixed valuation model? Two Types of Markets Each market is answering the same question, "What should this be worth?" but the underlying logic varies. Cash flow markets are essentially a math problem. Whether it's a stock or a bond, value equals the present value of future cash flows discounted. These markets

NFT Market Continues Downward Trend Amid Declining Participation and Falling Values Non-fungible tokens (NFTs) experienced a significant decline in December, marking the lowest market valuation since early 2025. Despite renewed interest in physical collectibles earlier in the year, the digital art

On December 20, 2025, the history of digital art will witness a milestone event: the Museum of Modern Art in New York announces the inclusion of eight CryptoPunks NFTs in its permanent collection. This move is not only an official verification of the pioneering series as an "important part of digital and cultural history," but also marks the formal acceptance of blockchain-based art forms by the world's top art institutions. Although the global art market suffered setbacks in sales in 2024, NFTs, with their unique cultural penetration, are moving from the margins of experimentation to the core narrative of art history, laying a new evaluative foundation for the long-term value of crypto art assets.

The Museum of Modern Art (MoMA) in New York has officially added 8 CryptoPunks to its permanent collection, marking the most significant institutional recognition of on-chain art to date. The selected CryptoPunks, along with 8 Chromie Squiggles NFTs, are housed in MoMA's Department of Media and Performance Art.

The Museum of Modern Art in New York has announced the inclusion of CryptoPunks in its collection, providing "museum-quality" endorsement for NFTs. (Previously: Bought CryptoPunks as a reserve, didn't expect PunkStrategy to really take off) (Background: Yuga Labs sold CryptoPunks! Infinite Node Foundation acquired the intellectual property rights: will continue the spirit of cyberpunk) The Museum of Modern Art in New York ( MoMA ) has announced the inclusion of the NFT avatar series CryptoPunks in its permanent collection. It has been listed on the collection page. This announcement, following the retreat of the NFT bubble, is seen as a milestone for traditional art institutions formally engaging with blockchain assets. This batch of CryptoPunks is from multiple private collectors.

The Museum of Modern Art (MoMA) in New York has announced the inclusion of CryptoPunks into its permanent collection, providing a "museum-grade" endorsement for NFTs. (Previous context: Buying CryptoPunks as reserves, unexpectedly PunkStrategy really took off) (Additional background: Yuga Labs sold CryptoPunks! Infinite Node Foundation acquired the intellectual property rights: continuing the cyberpunk spirit) The Museum of Modern Art (MoMA) has officially announced the addition of the NFT avatar series CryptoPunks to its permanent collection. It is now listed on the collection page. In the aftermath of the NFT bubble burst, this move is seen as a milestone for traditional art institutions to officially engage with blockchain assets. This batch of CryptoPunks was assembled by multiple private collectors.

Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only. Art on Tezos closed 2025 as a breakout year, marked by major museum partnerships, global art events, and strong institutional and artist adoption

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In brief Coinbase will allow customers to trade stocks that aren't tokenized. The firm will also offer access to Kalshi-powered prediction markets. The exchange's app now supports novel assets on Solana. Decrypt's Art, Fashion, and Entertainment Hub. Discover SCENE Coinbase

In brief DTCC plans to tokenize U.S. Treasuries on Canton. It marks the first step in a yearslong roadmap for DTCC. DTCC is expected to provide a list of other approved networks. Decrypt's Art, Fashion, and Entertainment Hub. Discover SCENE The Depository Trust \& Clearing

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In brief Mizuho analysts raised "cannibalization concerns" in a recent note. Coinbase users are likely to sell crypto to fund bets, they warned. The analysts lowered their price target for COIN ahead of Coinbase's big Wednesday event. Decrypt's Art, Fashion, and Entertainment Hub.

Decrypt's Art, Fashion, and Entertainment Hub. Discover SCENE Morning Minute is a daily newsletter written by Tyler Warner . The analysis and opinions expressed are his own and do not necessarily reflect those of Decrypt. Subscribe to the Morning Minute on Substack . GM! Today's top new

Decrypt's Art, Fashion, and Entertainment Hub. Discover SCENE Nexo has secured a multi-year agreement with Tennis Australia to become the Official Crypto Partner of the Australian Open and the Summer of Tennis. The deal covers the Australian Open alongside the Summer of Tennis series,

In brief Compass Point analyst reiterated a "Sell" rating for Coinbase shares while cutting COIN's price target. They foresee tokenized equities as a $230 million opportunity for the exchange. That's more than the $210 million analysts penciled in for prediction markets. Decrypt's Art,

In brief BitMine bought more than 100,000 ETH valued around $320 million last week. The firm now owns 3.2% of the circulating ETH supply, or about $12.4 billion in total. Ethereum and BitMine's stock price are both falling Monday. Decrypt's Art, Fashion, and Entertainment Hub.

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Author: ChandlerZ, Foresight News Over the past two years, RWA (Real World Assets) has become the most stable growth theme in the cryptocurrency market. The on-chain scale of US bonds, credit bonds, and short-term yield products continues to expand, and the capital flow structure between DeFi and traditional finance is becoming more predictable. Standard Chartered's latest report estimates that as DeFi applications in payments and investment become increasingly popular, the market capitalization of non-stablecoin tokenized RWAs will surpass $2 trillion by the end of 2028, well above the current $35 billion. Among them, tokenized money market funds and listed stocks may each account for about $750 billion, with the remaining parts consisting of funds, private equity, commodities, corporate debt, and real estate. However, as the infrastructure of the first phase gradually improves, the...

Decrypt's Art, Fashion, and Entertainment Hub. Discover SCENE Five stablecoin issuers have been granted conditional approval for national banking charters by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, the agency said Friday. The OCC conditionally approved applications for new national

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In brief The Executive Order creates an AI task force to contest state laws. Colorado's new "algorithmic discrimination" statute was identified as an early target. Agencies were told to review state rules and weigh funding restrictions tied to compliance. Decrypt's Art, Fashion, and

In brief OpenAI has introduced new internal tests for project-level performance. Scientific and mathematical benchmarks showed higher scores than prior models. The announcement comes as OpenAI makes deals to integrate GPT in the U.S. Government and Corporations. Decrypt's Art, Fashion, and

In brief Do Kwon was sentenced to 15 years in prison. He pleaded guilty to a series of fraud charges in August. Kwon expressed remorse in the courtroom, wearing a yellow jumpsuit. Decrypt's Art, Fashion, and Entertainment Hub. Discover SCENE Terraform Labs founder Do Kwon was senten

In brief Bitcoin and Ethereum are back in a downtrend following the Fed's rate cut. Technical indicators are flashing bearish signals across both assets. Despite the selloff, prediction markets remain surprisingly optimistic. Decrypt's Art, Fashion, and Entertainment Hub. Discover

Decrypt's Art, Fashion, and Entertainment Hub. Discover SCENE Crypto exchange Coinbase will stop paying USDC rewards to non-paying customers next week, confirming to Decrypt on Thursday that only Coinbase One premium subscribers will be eligible to earn 4% on their stablecoin

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In brief QVAC Health stores biometric and activity data locally instead of using cloud servers. The release follows Tether's $81 million investment in a humanoid robotics startup. The company is yet to explain how its non-crypto ventures fit into its long-term plan. Decrypt's Art,

Decrypt's Art, Fashion, and Entertainment Hub. Discover SCENE When Elon Musk bought Twitter in 2022 only to kill the brandin 2023, he probably didn't expect someone would try to bring it back from the dead. But a small Virginia startup called Operation Bluebird just asked the U.S. Patent a

In brief Bitcoin treasury leader Strategy raised national security concerns in a letter to MSCI. Excluding crypto-buying firms would undermine the Trump administration, it said. The letter questioned MSCI's neutrality in the eyes of regulators. Decrypt's Art, Fashion, and Entertainment

Decrypt's Art, Fashion, and Entertainment Hub. Discover SCENE The price of Bitcoin and Ethereum wavered Wednesday after the Federal Reserve lowered its benchmark rate by 0.25%, while the regulator said it would resume its purchase of Treasury bills. Bitcoin changed hands around $92,000

Verse8 is an AI-native creation layer that transforms your ideas into interactive games and stories. Every piece of creation can be owned, re-created, and continuously accumulated in value. Just as OpenAI started with chat, Runway rose with video, and Stability broke through with images, Verse8 begins with the most representative form: interactive content. Games are simply the first shining vertical in this new medium. We believe that creation should be accessible to everyone, not just developers. Why are we building Verse8? Interactive content creation has always been one of the most difficult fields to enter: long production cycles, high upfront costs, and complex workflows requiring coordination among coding, design, and art. Current systems are not user-friendly for creators. However, creativity should not be restricted. When we realized that the entire production process could be folded into a prompt (Pro

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Written by: Cookies, Rhythm beeple, the man who sold 1 NFT for a sky-high $69 million, has long been regarded as a symbol of the beginning of the golden age of NFTs. Although the NFT glory is gone, beeple and his team have remained active in the NFT circle. At this year's Art Basel, he once again brought a "golden dog" to the currently deserted NFT market - Regular Animals. Yesterday, several Regular Animas sold on OpenSea for more than 10 ETH (about $35,000), and this work was given away for free at Art Basel, with a total of 256 pieces. At this price, beeple gave away nearly 10 million dollars worth at Art Basel

In brief Studies in Nature and Science reported AI chatbots shifted voter preferences by up to 15%. Researchers found uneven accuracy across political contexts and documented bias concerns. A recent poll showed younger conservatives are most willing to trust AI. Decrypt's Art, Fashion, and

In brief JPMorgan analysts "continue to be positive" on crypto. They acknowledged fears stemming from Bitcoin's recent pullback. Some analysts foresee the end of so-called crypto winters. Decrypt's Art, Fashion, and Entertainment Hub. Discover SCENE JPMorgan analysts signaled on

In brief A USDC holder lost more than $440,000 after signing a malicious "permit" transaction. "Permit" phishing attacks accounted for some of November's largest individual crypto losses. Experts warn that scammers rely on human error and that recovery is highly unlikely. Decrypt's Art,

Decrypt's Art, Fashion, and Entertainment Hub. Discover SCENE Bitcoin and other major cryptocurrencies are suddenly flying high on Tuesday, surging in value ahead of Wednesday's Federal Reserve meeting conclusion that's widely expected to bring a third interest rate cut. And that's led to a

Decrypt's Art, Fashion, and Entertainment Hub. Discover SCENE Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) has taken aim at the GENIUS Act---which provides a legislative framework for stablecoins in the U.S.---alleging that it contains a "loophole" for introducing central bank digital currencies

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After Beeple sold an NFT for a record-breaking $69 million, he has continued to be active in the NFT space. At this year's Art Basel, he launched the Regular Animals series, which was distributed for free. Now, individual pieces from the collection are trading for over 10 ETH each, with a total value approaching $10 million. (Previous coverage: NFT legend Beeple releases new work to support "ZachXBT vs. Machi Big Brother"!) (Background: Beeple creates art mocking SEC Chairman "Gensler idling around," with hidden Easter eggs that the community finds hilarious.) Beeple, the man who once sold a single NFT for $69 million, has long been seen as a symbol of the golden era of NFTs. Although the NFT boom has faded, Beeple and his team have continued to...

Decrypt's Art, Fashion, and Entertainment Hub. Discover SCENE Circle Internet Group has secured a key license from Abu Dhabi's financial regulator and hired a regional veteran to run its Middle East and North Africa operations, marking the company's most direct push yet into a market

In brief Ondo Finance said the SEC closed a probe with no charges. Numerous SEC cases and investigations into crypto firms have ended this year. Former SEC Chair Gary Gensler was wary of tokenization. Decrypt's Art, Fashion, and Entertainment Hub. Discover SCENE Ondo Finance said on

In brief Strategy unveiled its largest Bitcoin purchase in over 100 days. The company's stock price was little changed. Some analysts lowered price targets for Strategy last week. Decrypt's Art, Fashion, and Entertainment Hub. Discover SCENE Strategy revealed its largest Bitcoin pur

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I am not a gambler, nor do I understand the thrill of watching candlestick charts with a racing heartbeat. But when CNN and CNBC respectively announced that they would integrate digital odds from prediction markets into their news broadcasts, I felt as if we were being toyed with by a new kind of "truth." Crypto bros are preaching: traditional polls will be replaced, experts are the high priests of an old era, and only odds built on real money can reflect the wisdom of the crowd and the reality of the truth. However, the trading logic fostered by prediction markets aligns perfectly with the "beauty contest" described by Keynes: you no longer care who is the most beautiful, you only care about "who others think is the most beautiful." The very concept of beauty is thereby "dissolved," much like Duchamp's urinal displayed in an art museum. Prediction markets will continue to accelerate and then stall, until more and more clear-headed people start "shorting" this frenzy—"shorting" the very narrative of prediction markets. Exchanges and casinos are two distinctly different worlds. Farmers