Zhongjin Fixed Income: It is expected that the yield of 10-year government bonds will reach a low point of 1.5% or lower within the year.

Jinshi data on March 6th, China Jianfa’s fixed income research report pointed out that this year’s government work report basically meets the previous market expectations. As for the impact on the bond market, this year’s fiscal [发力] is generally at the lower limit of market expectations, and the government bond supply [放量] has relatively limited disturbance on the bond market. At the same time, since the [货币政策] explicitly requires moderate easing, timing for RRR cuts and interest rate cuts, and must ‘enhance the matching degree of policy goals, tools, timing, intensity, and rhythm’, ‘introduce and implement policies as early as possible’, ‘once identified, provide support at one time’. We expect that there is still considerable room for RRR cuts and interest rate cuts during the year. The liquidity situation is expected to improve significantly. In a relatively stable bond supply and demand situation, with the further loosening of [货币政策], the allocation value of bond-like assets is becoming prominent. We expect that the lowest point of the 10-year government bond yield during the year may fall to 1.5% or even lower.