Altcoin Season Operation Guide: 6 Build a Position Strategies to Help You Grasp the Comprehensive Pump Market

Compilation: Deep Tide TechFlow

1. When does copycat season arrive?

I think the copycat season is coming soon, and here are some key points of analysis:

1.1 cycle in two phases

• Phase 1: Bitcoin price rises, altcoin price falls (Bitcoin market share increases).
• Phase 2: Bitcoin breaks through its historical high, and altcoins begin to enter a rapid rise phase.

This pattern can be seen more clearly from the following diagram:

! [Copycat Season Operation Guide: 6 Top Position Building Strategies to Help You Grasp the Comprehensive Rising Market] (https://m.shilian.com/uploads/20241213/a9a0021a7dba775be63c5f3463bba4fd.jpg)

At this stage, we start accumulating altcoins when the total altcoin market cap is at the low end of the range. I believe that the altcoin price will break through new highs just like Bitcoin.

Phase 2 has been launched now!

For more details, please see: link.

1.2 Laws of capital flows

The starting point of the bull market can be traced back to the end of 2023, when Bitcoin bottomed out, returned to the range and rose to its previous highs, while altcoins depreciated against Bitcoin and the share of the Bitcoin market increased.

When Bitcoin broke through its all-time high (i.e., the current phase), money began to flow to large-cap altcoins. Looking at the Total 3 (top 100 altcoins minus the total market capitalization of BTC and ETH) chart, while currently being largely driven by large-cap coins such as XRP, the performance of small- and mid-cap coins is also catching up.

Eventually, Bitcoin and large-cap coins will gradually flow into small- and mid-cap altcoins.

As market sentiment rises, investors become more greedy and start chasing small and mid-cap altcoins. I expect “other” mid-cap altcoins to reach new highs. The real copycat season is still ahead.

! [Copycat Season Operation Guide: 6 Top Position Building Strategies to Help You Grasp the Comprehensive Rising Market] (https://m.shilian.com/uploads/20241213/0c75d6627eccc8c409449affdc07c5d7.jpg)

1.3 Bitcoin Dominance

Each cycle has a similar pattern: when the price of bitcoin breaks through the previous high and spikes higher for the first time, its market share begins to decline.

Currently, the Bitcoin market share has broken a rising trend that has lasted for more than 800 days.

! [Copycat Season Operation Guide: 6 Top Position Building Strategies to Help You Grasp the Comprehensive Rising Market] (https://m.shilian.com/uploads/20241213/a5e425fe5eb3fc2cb1e85dc9398065e2.jpg)

1.4 ETHBTC Trend Analysis

In each cycle, Ethereum tends to perform weakly in the early stage (Bitcoin rises but still below the previous high), and then starts to rebound when Bitcoin stabilizes above the previous high.

The current cycle is no exception. It is expected that more funds will flow into Ethereum ecosystem tokens, on-chain utility tokens, and high-risk tokens. Once ETHBTC really enters an uptrend, these tokens will perform even better.

! [Copycat Season Operation Guide: 6 Top Position Building Strategies to Help You Grasp the Comprehensive Rising Market] (https://m.shilian.com/uploads/20241213/7b2ea1ac62e1dd6adf33a1d9ace2f9f8.jpg)

ETHBTC Chart Analysis

Currently, ETHBTC has retraced and re-entered the range low.

2021 failed to break through the resistance level of Phase 4. In this cycle, will we be able to usher in the “super-up” of Phase 5?

If the current downtrend line is broken, it will end a bear market trend that has lasted for 1100 days.

In addition, 2024 is also an important year for the launch of Ethereum ETFs (exchange-traded funds), and I think the market is still underestimating the potential of Ethereum.

! [Copycat Season Operation Guide: 6 Top Position Building Strategies to Help You Grasp the Comprehensive Rising Market] (https://m.shilian.com/uploads/20241213/4fc59c95cb9ba34904060834c55807f1.jpg)

2. Have you missed the opportunity?

As mentioned earlier, the Amsterdam team has accumulated altcoins at the low point of Total 3 market value in the past 5-6 months.

At the low of the range, it is advisable to:

• Buy at key support level;
• Gradually build positions in a slow oscillating market instead of chasing gains;
• Set a clear stop loss (e.g. below the range);
• The market is less volatile and easier to hold.

! [Copycat Season Operation Guide: 6 Top Position Building Strategies to Help You Grasp the Comprehensive Rising Market] (https://m.shilian.com/uploads/20241213/80a848c8f10a27735a6bbead396401e6.jpg)

But if you choose to buy after the price has risen vertically:

• You may not have a specific stop-loss point. This may not have a significant impact on short-term traders, but for long-term investors, not having a stop-loss point can increase risks.
• The low-to-high gain opportunities are gone, and the bet is now on whether the altcoin market cap can break through the new high.
• Buy during a phase of rapid price increases, you will face higher market volatility, and a 20-30% pullback is not uncommon.

! [Copycat Season Operation Guide: 6 Top Position Building Strategies to Help You Grasp the Comprehensive Rising Market] (https://m.shilian.com/uploads/20241213/6259ccd04092b36dbc20082a6650da7f.jpg)

So, I don’t think it’s too late for you, because:

• Bitcoin still has upside.
• The capital rotation has not yet fully reached the stage of small and medium-sized market value altcoins (the ‘Others’ chart shows that it may reach new highs), so the most profitable stage has not yet arrived.
• Bitcoin dominance may further decline, while the ETHBTC ratio will rise.

! [Copycat Season Operation Guide: 6 Top Position Building Strategies to Help You Grasp the Comprehensive Rising Market] (https://m.shilian.com/uploads/20241213/1b7afad78ba4ca88dccae4fa662d1571.jpg)

However, please note the following:

• Understand the stage of the current market cycle.
• Be clear about whether you are entering a currency for short-term trading or long-term investment.
• Develop a clear profit plan.
• Understand that this is a high volatility phase, and there may be rapid declines of 10%-30%.
• It is difficult to predict the acceptance of these rapid declines, and if you try to manipulate these pullbacks, you may disrupt your longer-term investment plans.

Analysis of ‘risks’ regarding entry at this stage (not entry in the past 3-6 months):

Please refer to this.

3. Advice on how to enter:

If you’ve missed the accumulation period of the past 6 months, you first need to think about why you missed it.

Most likely because you’re affected by emotions:

• In a bull market, prices usually rise very quickly, with little or no significant and sustainable pullback.
• Many people miss out on upside opportunities, and when they chase higher for “fear of missing out”, the market tends to enter a volatile or rapid decline phase.
• In the midst of the shocks, they became pessimistic again and eventually missed the opportunity to rise quickly again.

The correct strategy is to gradually build positions during the oscillation or pullback phase, and maintain patience, focusing on the market structure of longer time frames.

For more information, please click here.

Here are the specific recommendations!

Suggestion 1: Stick to spot trading and avoid leverage

Preference is given to spot trading.

Many people are used to using leverage, but this is actually a trap. Every market fluctuation makes people feel like an “opportunity”, but most of the time it is not. You don’t need to rush. Leveraged trading will eventually cost most people a loss or even zero – don’t let that ruin your bull market gains.

Stick to spot trading so that you won’t be unable to hold positions due to excessive leverage, or worse, be forced to close positions and miss market opportunities.

Trust me, stay away from leveraged trading.

Suggestion 2: Don’t chase up, focus on pullbacks

Most people trade based on sentiment and only buy when the price rises (green candlestick) because it makes them feel “safe”.

But the market will not rise in a straight line, even in a bull market, there will be pullbacks:

• Daily volatility: A small pullback of a few percentage points.
• Every few weeks: 10%-30% panic drop.

If you buy during a price increase, you are likely to sell out of panic during a pullback.

• Buying when prices rise can bring a sense of security.
• You will feel relieved when you sell down.

But the right strategy is:

• Buying may make you scared, but it’s the right time.
• It may be difficult to let go when selling, but it is a rational choice.

If you can buck the trend and take positions on pullbacks and buy boldly during panic dips, you will have an advantage over most people.

Suggestion 3: Open positions in batches and operate patiently

So far:

• Only choose spot trading.
• Don’t chase up, but open a position on a pullback.

Plus, you don’t need to invest all of your money at once.

You can choose to open a position gradually. If the price drops by 5%, you put all your money into the altcoin all at once, then if there is a bigger correction in the market (such as a 10%, 20%, or even 30% drop), you may sell in a panic.

The correct strategy is to invest 10% of your capital when the price drops by 5%. This way, when there is a larger pullback (e.g. 10%, 20% or 30%), you can continue to gradually increase your position instead of being thrown out by market volatility.

What if the pullback doesn’t deepen further? Never mind. Don’t invest all your money at once for fear of missing out, as you may be forced out of the market in a deeper pullback.

There will be more pullbacks and opportunities to open positions in the future.

In a highly volatile market, you can’t perfectly grasp every movement. You also don’t need to buy at the lowest or sell at the highest, just focus on long-term gains.

Tip 4: Control risk and avoid excessive risk-taking

You’ve probably heard of the legends of “cross” making millions, but taking too much risk can be a huge test of your mental endurance. If your position is too heavy, you may be forced to sell in a panic during a market pullback, and end up missing out on a bigger opportunity.

Tip 5: Make a plan that works for you

Don’t just copy someone else’s plan, but create a clear investment plan based on your goals and risk tolerance. The plan should include risk management and a variety of response options in case the market moves differently than expected.

A good plan can keep you calm in market fluctuations, avoid making wrong decisions due to panic or excitement, and help you gradually achieve profitable exits.

Here are a few points to be clear in the plan:

• Keep it simple: Don’t make the plan too complicated.
• Focus on long-term frameworks (HTFs): Focus on megatrends, not short-term fluctuations.
• Clear goals:
• What market signals would I like to see?
• What tokens do I want to invest in? Why choose them?
• How much money do I plan to invest?
• In which price ranges do I open positions in batches?

When do I opt out?

For more information on how to create a recurring monetization plan, you can refer to this tweet.

Tip 6: Focus on a long-term framework and keep your strategy simple

• Focus only on long-term frame (HTF) charts to avoid being distracted by short-term fluctuations.
• You only need to focus on the key ranges of the price and the market structure, and don’t pay attention to too much market noise.
• Keep the strategy simple and clear.

Even simple strategies can give you an edge in the market:

• Most people trade with leverage, but you don’t.
• Most people chase high when prices rise (green candle), but you don’t.
• Most people don’t have a clear profit plan, but you have your own plan.
• Most people buy or sell all at once, but you choose to open and exit gradually.

Before sharing my list of altcoins to watch, let’s talk about an important viewpoint:

Opinion:

In the current market, altcoins (“Others” market cap) are expected to hit new highs and attract inflows from Bitcoin and mainstream currencies.

! [Copycat Season Operation Guide: 6 Top Position Building Strategies to Help You Grasp the Comprehensive Rising Market] (https://m.shilian.com/uploads/20241213/f236493ba211aa52f449332df6032cab.jpg)

At present, the market capitalization of “Others” has been slightly above the mid-range line and is gradually approaching the range high.

It should be noted that the upper range is usually a strong resistance area, and there may be multiple tests and callbacks before breaking through. This is often overlooked when the market is performing strongly (such as today’s all “green”).

Recall Bitcoin’s performance before it broke through the range highs: it went through many pullbacks and shocks before it managed to break through.

Even in the previous bull market cycle, at the beginning of the altcoin season, the “Others” market value chart also experienced a 30% sharp correction before breaking through the high-end range.

So please remember the following points:

• Before the full copycat season arrives, the market is likely to experience a large pullback and may even have a multi-week decline.
• But do not try to predict these callbacks and wait, instead take the following strategies:
• Build positions slowly in batches: Gradually increase your positions and don’t invest all your money at once.
• Avoid using leverage: Leveraged trading is extremely risky and may result in forced liquidation.
• Buy on pullback: Focus on opening positions when the market is falling (red candles) rather than chasing up when prices are rising (green candles).

Be patient and follow a long-term strategy, and you will be more likely to profit from market fluctuations.

1. $SOL

SOL is currently a strong large-cap coin that has shown a clear advantage in this market cycle – an option to keep an eye on.

From a market cycle perspective, I expect SOL to break out of its current range highs and have significant upside potential as the price enters the “discovery phase” (i.e., the market explores its true value after the price reaches a new all-time high).

At present, it is possible to consider opening positions in batches at this stage, but it should be noted that the current price is in the resistance area of the high range. If you buy cross-position all at once, it may be difficult to withstand a possible 10%-30% price correction in the future. Therefore, it is recommended to strictly follow the plan of opening positions in batches.

In addition, it is recommended to use spot trading and avoid leveraged operations. Here’s how I do it:

• Wait for the price to break through the range highs before opening a small position.
• If the price continues to rise and stabilize at a high level, you can continue to gradually increase your position.
• If the price falls back below the range and then breaks out again, this is another opportunity to add to the position.
• If the price retraces to the previous consolidation range, it can also be used as an opportunity to build positions in batches.
• When the price rebounds and breaks the short-term downtrend line, consider adding to the position.

In short, clear response plans should be formulated for various possible market trends, and positions should be gradually established through spot trading.

! [Copycat Season Operation Guide: 6 Top Position Building Strategies to Help You Grasp the Comprehensive Rising Market] (https://m.shilian.com/uploads/20241213/634b862614f79f371d211990e93c1f8b.jpg)

2.$BLUR

BLUR is a special currency. Earlier this year, it failed to hold the range low of Phase 4 (i.e., the price failed to support in the low area), likely because the NFT market was generally sluggish at the time.

Now, the NFT market is recovering. Opensea may launch its own token, and Magic Eden’s token will also be launched next week.

Driven by these positive events and combined with the current market and chart performance, BLUR may regain market attention.

My main observation point is whether there will be opportunities to build positions when the price recovers the low range (indicated by the arrow on the chart).

If the market falls again, you can also try to open a position at the low of the range in Phase 3.

However, for me, this currency is more suitable for short-term trading rather than long-term holding.

3.$MEME

Even ordinary investors have heard of the investment cycle of Meme-themed projects. It is hard for me to imagine that a token named ‘MEME’ will not attract widespread attention in the market after being listed on all top exchanges.

The price structure of this token is very perfect, currently in stage 3. I will wait for the price to clearly break through and reclaim key positions before entering the market.

In addition, this token is also associated with a large NFT collection. With the recovery of the NFT market, the implementation of the $ME incentive program, and the potential launch of the Opensea token could give it further upward momentum.

! [Copycat Season Operation Guide: 6 Top Position Building Strategies to Help You Grasp the Comprehensive Rising Market] (https://m.shilian.com/uploads/20241213/f73eb221c1dd73fb2f3abdadb0606ce3.jpg)

4.$ORAI

$ORAI is a veteran AI token. Last week, it successfully regained Phase 4 (orange zone) in the short-term market structure, so I bought some positions again.

If the price pulls back to this range again, I will continue to add positions.

In addition, I have set a price alert, which will serve as a new entry signal when it breaks above the low point in the macro range.

! [Copycat Season Operation Guide: 6 Top Position Building Strategies to Help You Grasp the Comprehensive Rising Market] (https://m.shilian.com/uploads/20241213/e90402c5bd9e7a563e9c5b96fe630ae1.jpg)

5.$TIA

I have been holding TIA since it regained and retested the low range.

Currently, it is attempting to break through the current price structure. I believe that if a clear breakthrough is formed above the gray area, the subsequent pullback will be a good opportunity to add positions.