Analysis of Nostr Assets' First Fair Mint Rules and Production and Investment Returns "BTC Ecology"

Original | Odaily

Author | Aurantium aurantium

Yesterday, Nostr Assets Protocol announced the details of its first Fair Mint (NOSTR). This Fair Mint is divided into three steps:

The first stage: investment, users pledge Treat and Trick assets to obtain lottery qualifications;

The second stage: lottery, the prize pool is drawn through the block hash value;

Stage 3: Claim, claim tokens from the official interface.

Pitch Phase

The start date is December 11, 2023. There are 12 officially set prize pools, and the last four prize pools have double the probability of winning the first eight prize pools.

The user chooses 1 of the 12 prize pools, invests in Treat and Trick assets, and earns a Pool Ranking.

This phase has the following key points:

• The investment phase can continue to increase the invested assets, and the ranking is also real-time until the end of the stage.
• Cannot be withdrawn during the investment phase, 50% will be returned at the end of the first phase, and 50% will be returned at the end of the second phase (lottery).

Draw Stage

• For each block, select 1 of the 12 prize pools according to the hexadecimal tail number of the block hash value;
• The top 50 winners of the prize pool will receive a prize once (51-100 winners in the second draw);
• A total of 15,000 winning addresses will be drawn 300 times, and the first 100 will receive 2,160 NOSTRs, 1080 for 101-200, and 540 for 201-300.

This phase has the following key points:

• If there are not enough winners for the first 200 blocks, the excess shares will be distributed at the end and each person will receive 540 tokens;
• Only one prize pool can be invested per Nostr address;
• Each Nostr address can only win 1 time.

Token Details

• Total supply: 21, 000, 000 pcs
• Fair Mint quantity: 18, 900, 000 pieces
• Number of awards: 2160 (first 5000 winners), 1080 (last 5000 winners), 540 (last 5000 winners)
• Duration: 300 blocks, about 2.1 days (Note: about 10 minutes for a block BTC network)

Production and investment estimates

Treat&Trick Circulating Supply: Approx. 87 million (Total Supply: 420 million)

Treat&Trick Price: 0.4 USDT (as of 13:00 on December 8th)

Scenario (1): Assuming that all participants contribute the same amount, the number of inputs per address is 8,700,000/15,000 = 5,600

Situation (2): Assuming that all participants decide the amount of investment according to the amount of the award, then in the 15000 addresses, the ratio of the three levels of investment is 4:2:1, so the minimum investment is 8,700,000/15,000/7* 3 = 2,484, and the maximum is 2,484× 6 = 14,904.

Costing

In case (1), the cost is 5,600* 0.4 = 2,240 USDT, and in case (2), the minimum cost is 993 USDT and the maximum cost is 2,980 USDT.

Earnings estimates

Based on the calculation of 1 USDT each, the corresponding market cap of NOSTR is $21 million, which is close to the market value of Treat&Trick before the announcement of Fair Mint.

In case (1), the single number profit is about 18, 900, 000/15000 × 1 = 1260 USD, and the cost is 2240 USD× the expected decline rate, if the Fair Mint falls by 56%, there is no return.

In case (2), the minimum single number return is about $540 and the cost is $993× the expected rate of decline, and if Fair Mint falls by 54%, there is no return.

Risk Warning

For this reason, Fair Mint only announced yesterday that it would use Treat&Trick as an input asset, and the price of Treat&Trick will rise significantly in the short term, and there is a risk that the asset will be significantly discounted after the end of Fair Mint**.

The BTC ecosystem has recently ebbed, and the market value of NOSTR is unexpected, and there is a risk that the valuation will be lower than expected.